Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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This is the fourth installment of Footballguys.com's annual Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) article. For those unfamiliar with the analysis, or if you just want to see how successful the system has been, feel free to check out the 2005, 2004 and 2003 versions. The basic idea is that while the DT position is important, it's difficult to predict which DTs will perform well from year to year. And no one wants to spend an 8th round pick on the Bears DT, when Trent Green, Donte' Stallworth and Marion Barber are still available. Hitting home runs on those mid-round picks is the key to winning your league, and you lower your odds of making such a successful selection when you draft a defense early. The problem, of course, is that a lower pick usually means less of a reward. So how do you get great production while saving your most important draft picks? We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams with late average draft positions (ADPs), whose combined schedule features tons of weak offenses throughout the season. Then since you start your defense based on matchups, and your DT will usually oppose a weak offense, you'll be rewarded with high point totals from your DT position. When our subscribers talk, Footballguys listens. Last year there were many requests for more data, which I'm more than happy to provide. At the end of this article, I have listed all 496 DTBC combinations for the 2006 season, and how many 'points' (for newcomers, you'll know what this means in a bit) their combined schedules project. Last year's committee featured the Detroit Lions and the Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams had young talent, but neither team really reached their potential in '05. Had you rotated them based exclusively on last year's article, your defense would have produced 30 sacks, 28 INTs and 13 fumbles, while allowing 326 points. While those numbers are pretty good - and you probably could have done a bit better with some simple in-season match up adjustments - that likely ranked just outside the top 10 in most fantasy leagues. And while it's nice to know that the two teams would have out produced their low draft slots, we're going to shoot for a much better finish this year. When picking our committee, we're going to look for four elements:
The first three are obvious, while the last might require an explanation. No position in fantasy football is scored in such a wide variety of ways depending on your league as team defense. But in most leagues the top seven teams were Chicago, Carolina, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, New York, Denver and Tampa Bay. Those seven teams all made the playoffs, and teams like Miami, Seattle, Jacksonville and Cincinnati were right behind. Simply put, when an NFL team wins games, its corresponding fantasy DT is usually doing well. Teams that are trailing are forced to pass more often, and that will let the opposition pile up the sacks and INTs. The causation runs both ways, of course, as teams that don't let up many points usually win lots of games. The first step in the DTBC system is ranking the offenses. Footballguys.com has excellent projections that I've used to rank the offenses. I scored the offenses based on the projections the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - (2 x Interceptions thrown) - (2 x Fumbles lost). While most leagues award significant points for sacks, I don't factor them in because there's no reliable sacks allowed projection data out there. You can't just use last year's statistics, since the number of sacks allowed varies widely from year to year. From 2004 to 2005, the correlation coefficient of team sacks allowed both years was just 0.39; this means that only 15% of all the team sacks in 2005 could have been "explained by" looking at the sack data in 2004. As a result, I'm not using any sacks allowed data since it won't add enough certainty or reliability into my system. But we'll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC. Anyway, here is the full list of the offenses, along with how they ranked under the same scoring system in 2005.
As you would expect, some teams got bumps up or down based on offseason movement. The Saints added Reggie Bush and Drew Brees, and expect full seasons from Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn - so New Orleans moved from an offense we'd love our DTBC to face to just an average one. On the other side, Tennessee lost Steve McNair, and lots of other teams moved ahead of the Titans with strong offseason additions and expected healthy returns from key players injured in 2005. After rankings the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned the corresponding rank for each opponent that every team played. For example, when the Jets play the Bills in week 3, New York receives 32 'points'. When the Jets play the Colts in week 4, New York receives 1 'point'. After doing this for all 512 matchups - and awarding 0 points for each bye week - we can now rank each team's schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most leagues don't play in week 17. That's largely a moot point this year since our committee plays the lowly Titans in week 17. (Note: I ran the same system using each offense's projected FPs instead of their corresponding ranks; the results were nearly identical. I decided to stick with the rankings to make this article a lot more palatable.) 2006 Defensive Team By Committee In 2003, the top committee scored 376 'points'. In 2004, the top schedule scored 411 'points' and last year the Lions and Bengals scheduled was projected at 401 'points'. This year, the schedules of the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are extremely favorable and yield 433 projected 'points.' That committee doesn't stand out, however, as the Jets and Lions, Jet and Vikings, Patriots and Bills and Patriots and Lions all scored 420 or more 'points'. What's this mean? For starters, if you've never used DTBC before, this is the year to try it as the schedules are extremely favorable. This isn't a result of some tweaks to the system I've made - the schedules just happen to line up very well for 2006. It also means that there are several great options, which is one of the reasons I'm going to show you all the committees and let you decide which teams you want to pair up. Now let's take a closer look at my 2006 Defensive Team By Committee: the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. Miami Dolphins (ADP: DT13, 14.03)
Jason Taylor remains one of the league's top defensive ends, and has averaged over 13 sacks for the past four seasons. He'll be 32 when the season starts, but he should remain a premier player for at least another season or two. He played a hybrid DE/LB position in Nick Saban's scheme last year, and will continue to put pressure on the quarterback wherever he lines up. Kevin Carter had 17 sacks for the Rams in 1999, and should be good for another half-dozen sacks in 2006. Vonnie Holliday's had at least five sacks in seven of his eight seasons in the league, and gives Miami a third strong pass rusher on the line. Miami plays a lot of 3-4, and Holliday's an above average 3-4 DE. Keith Traylor's a huge body that allows the playmakers on the Miami defense to roam free. He'll be 37 in September, but his health will be important to the 'Fins success. Zach Thomas is the star of the LB group, and despite getting up there in age (he's exactly one year older than Taylor), he had one of his best seasons in 2005. He set a career high in tackles despite missing two games, and forced four fumbles. Channing Crowder played well as a rookie last year, and is a tremendous athlete. He's got great acceleration, which will help him become more of a playmaker his sophomore season. Spragan's a veteran who played well when Junior Seau went down last season, and defensive assistant Dom Capers said before training camp that he was impressed with Spragan's work in 2005. Saban has totally revamped the Miami secondary. In 2002 and 2003, the Dolphins sent CB Patrick Surtain and FS Brock Marion to Hawaii, and three-time Pro Bowler Sam Madison was still one of the league's best defenders. But with Madison's departure this offseason, the Miami secondary has no familiar faces. Saban spent his first round pick this year on FS Jason Allen, who brings an infusion of speed into the Miami secondary. He's talented enough to play CB, and should perform well in the Dolphins zone defense. Last year's fourth round pick Travis Daniels was a star for Saban at LSU, and is very familiar with the defense Miami will run. He's another guy that excels in zone coverage, and should improve in 2006. Veteran Will Allen comes over from the Giants, and while he's got horrible hands he's adequate in coverage. Renaldo Hill was signed from Oakland to man the other safety position, and he's shown big play ability in the past. Travares Tillman had three interceptions for the Dolphins in '05 and will push Hill for the starting SS job. Miami's biggest offseason acquisition for the defense might have been Dom Capers. While Capers failed as the head coach in Houston, he's a defensive mastermind that's had sustained success coaching defenses in several NFL cities. He's been named both Assistant Coach of the Year and NFL Head Coach of the Year, and knows the 3-4 defense as well as anyone. Capers is a great addition to this new Dolphins defense, and his scheming will help to overcome some of the shortcomings due to Miami's inexperience. New England Patriots (ADP: DT14, 15.05)
New England boasts one of the best defensive lines in the league, as all three players are former first round picks that have lived up to the hype. Richard Seymour's the star of the group, and some consider him the best defensive player in the NFL. Vince Wilfork's a very good nose tackle, and while he won't put up fantasy numbers, he's sure to take on blockers every play. Ty Warren's another big body and is a great fit as a 3-4 DE; he's a run-stopper and not an edge rusher, but Jarvis Green provides good speed off the bench. The defensive line is very young and talented, and should continue to be a dominant force for years to come. The heart and soul of the linebackers is Bruschi, of course. After his return from a stroke, the Patriots defense seemed to improve immediately. In the seven games without him, New England allowed 27.4 PPG; in the nine games Bruschi played, the Pats allowed just 16.2 PPG. Bruschi's a playmaker who will chip in a few sacks, INTs and fumbles a year. Rosevelt Colvin's one of the few disappointing free agent signings during the Belichick/Pioli Era, but he's a strong pass rusher that may have turned the corner, and could have double digit sacks in 2006. Vrabel's been on New England for all three championships, and is an intelligent, athletic and versatile LB. He can play any position and while he lacks Colvin's raw speed, Vrabel has recorded 24 sacks the last four seasons. Banta-Cain is the leading candidate to replace the departed Willie McGinest, but expect a training camp battle among a host of 'backers to see who wins that spot. The defensive backfield - long a sore spot for the Patriots - is surprisingly deep this year. Samuel and Hobbs are young corners that are starting to get some experience in New England. Both have soft hands - Samuel had four INTs in his last five games including the post-season, and Hobbs had 3 INTs as a rookie in the second half of 2005. Eugene Wilson's an athletic FS that can also play CB, and has 12 turnovers in three seasons. While Wilson's more of a playmaker, Rodney Harrison delivers the big hits. Harrison was one of the best defensive backs of the last decade, but he tore three knee ligaments in a game against the Steelers in 2005. His return is up in the air, but Harrison was the emotional leader of the secondary and makes everyone around him better. A healthy Harrison would provide a huge spark for the Patriots. New England now has impressive depth in the secondary, and should easily improve on a pass defense that ranked second to last in 2005. The biggest positive in Foxboro, of course, is defensive genius Bill Belichick. Belichick's lauded as the game's best coach, and there's no one better at designing a defense. Belichick prides his Patriots teams on strong defense, and expect New England to rebound this year. First round pick Laurence Maroney should improve the running game and keep the defense rested. New England's suffered a rash of injuries almost every year; if the Patriots players remain healthy, the results will surprise a lot of people. The Combined Schedule
This schedule features four games against the worst offense in the NFL - the Bills - and two more against the lowly Bears. An additional six games are against offenses in the bottom quartile of the league, and not once will you start your defense against a top 20 offense. Games against Losman, Favre, Grossman, Carr and Volek should produce lots of INTs and sacks for your fantasy defense. In previous years, I've provided alternate combinations in case the Dolphins or Patriots are snagged too early by a homer in your draft. I've also looked at how to pair up the stud Ds, or how to grab two really, really bad Ds and make due. This year I'm going to go one better and just going to lay out all 496 combinations, sorted by most 'points' to fewest. Happy drafting, and have a great 2006 season! Send any questions or comments to stuart@footballguys.com. Here's the ranking of each team's schedule from most 'points' to fewest, in case you want to skip the committee idea altogether and go with one defense. I'd be wary of drafting the Broncos DT, for example, as Denver has an impossible schedule featuring opponents with great offenses nearly every week.
Here is an extensive list of DTBCs
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