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Quarterback by Committee in a start-two-QB league
by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com In this article, I discussed the benefits of using the quarterback-by-committee system in your standard fantasy league. However, lots of subscribers have indicated that they play in leagues where you must start two QBs each week. There's no doubt that this is a growing trend, and I probably should have included it in the original article. But I won't make that mistake again. Starting now, a QBBC article for start-two-QB leagues will be a preseason staple at footballguys. There are two ways to go about handling this. The simplest way is to treat them as two entirely separate positions. You could draft Peyton Manning as your QB1, and then still take Philip Rivers, Aaron Brooks and Kurt Warner to fill the committee role for the separate QB2 position. This is sound, reasonable and would definitely yield good results. The problem, of course, is not everyone will be able to draft Manning. In a start-two-QB league, Manning is almost certainly going to be a first round pick, and maybe a high one. And while drafting Donovan McNabb and Rivers/Brooks/Warner is just as sound in theory, your pre-draft plan doesn't always come to fruition. Most leagues that start two QBs every week are 10-team leagues, and in 12 team leagues the situation is even worse. The demand for QBs skyrockets, and it will be difficult to draft those three QBs in consecutive rounds. So while I certainly don't think this approach is a bad one, let's focus on the other option. Instead of picking three QBs to find a trio with the highest maximum score from any one QB every week, we have to go about this from a different angle. Now we want to find the best trio when looking at the two best matchups each week. So a committee where QB-A plays a defense with 32 'points', QB-B plays a defense with 1 'point' and QB-C plays a defense with 2 'points', goes from being the best for that week to just average. And that's the important difference we want to highlight. Personally, I'd advocate grabbing four QBs if possible. That won't always be an option, but we'll look at that in the second half of this article. For a start-two-QB league, the trio with the easiest combined schedule is Rex Grossman, Byron Leftwich and Chad Pennington. Now remember, I'm not saying that group will outscore a trio of Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Tom Brady. I'm only saying that trio's collective schedule is the easiest. That schedule gives 782 'points'. This means both your starting QBs would face, on average, the 23rd worst defenses in the league. In a start 1-QB league, those three QBs would combine for 442 'points', which would mean your top QB faces the 26th worst D in the league every week. Obviously, starting two QBs means you're going to have less favorable matchups. But still, with this threesome, you would only have to face a projected top ten defense once all season. And in 14 of the season's 17 weeks, your two quarterbacks will both be facing below average defenses. Note that there's a slight difference in which combos you'll choose because you're looking for the top two scores. The top committee in a standard league with Pennington and Grossman would involve adding Daunte Culppepper -- he would make the projected schedule total 450 'points.' But the Culpepper-Leftwich-Pennington trio in a start-two-QB league yields only 750 'points'. These aren't serious differences, but I think it merits writing this article. Let's now get at what we want. The top QBBC trios in a start-two-QB league. Here are the top 20 commitees based strictly on the easiest two schedules for each trio of QBs in the league for all seventeen weeks of the season.
782 -- Rex Grossman - Byron Leftwich - Chad Pennington 781 -- Tom Brady - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 779 -- Kelly Holcomb - Byron Leftwich - Chad Pennington 778 -- Jake Plummer - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington 777 -- Peyton Manning - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 776 -- Rex Grossman - Brett Favre - Chad Pennington 774 -- Rex Grossman - Brett Favre - Philip Rivers 773 -- Kelly Holcomb - Rex Grossman - Byron Leftwich 773 -- Brett Favre - Chad Pennington - Philip Rivers 772 -- Byron Leftwich - Chad Pennington - Alex Smith 772 -- Rex Grossman - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper 771 -- Kelly Holcomb - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington 771 -- Rex Grossman - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 770 -- Tom Brady - Chad Pennington - Philip Rivers 770 -- Kelly Holcomb - Peyton Manning - Chad Pennington 769 -- Kelly Holcomb - Rex Grossman - Chad Pennington 769 -- Brett Favre - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 768 -- Rex Grossman - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington 767 -- Rex Grossman - Daunte Culpepper - Matt Hasselbeck 767 -- Chad Pennington - Steve McNair - Matt Hasselbeck Some of these committees aren't very helpful. I don't care what the schedule is, if you have Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington and Kelly Holcomb, you're going to start Manning each week. A Manning-Hasselbeck-Pennington commitee isn't much of a committee, and it's doubtful that you'll be able to grab both Manning and Hasselbeck in a start-two-QB league. But some of these look pretty good. The top scoring trio, Grossman/Leftwich/Pennington, is solid. None of those QBs would require you to spend an early draft pick on a quarterback, and you could definitely stock up on the RBs and WRs in such a league. Grossman/Favre/Pennington and Grossman/Favre/Rivers are also attractive commitees. You could even wait REAL LATE and roll the dice on Grossman, Pennington and Holcomb, although that would certainly be my "backup plan" at best. The Chargers and Raiders have the same bye week, so the best committee in standard leagues isn't really an option in a start-two-QB league. So what's the best way to prepare you for your draft? I'm going to throw a lot of data out here right now, and most of it won't be very important until you're actually drafting. But if you bring this to your draft, I think you're going to find it very useful.
If your ideal committee is Grossman, Leftwich and Pennington...Byron Leftwich is going to be the first QB to take. Grossman's probably going to be the second one...so what happens if he's gone? What's the next best pair of QBs to pair up with Leftwich, if Grossman's gone (and all the other QBs that are probably gone)?
If your ideal committee is Grossman, Favre and Pennington...You're going to grab Favre first. So what if Grossman goes early to a Bears homer?
If your ideal committee is Brady, Rivers and Pennington...If Rivers is gone but you've already selected Brady, switch and go after the following pairs of QBs to team with Brady:
Unfortunately, I can't do this for the thousands of possibility commitee options. So here's what I'm going to do. The next table shows each team's "opponent" for each week, but the actual opponent is replaced with the opponent's ranking in the original QBBC article. So in Week 1, when Arizona plays SF, Arizona has a "32" in that column. (The blanks indicate the team's bye week.) If all else fails during your draft, you can bring this to your draft and at least eyeball what possible combinations will work if someone snatches your top QB.
----------------------------- WEEK -------------------------------------
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARI 32 13 24 10 26 1 22 18 8 17 23 24 13 11 32 19
ATL 4 6 27 16 12 5 29 17 7 3 27 2 6 8 4 20
BAL 6 22 7 19 11 4 27 29 30 10 5 29 26 7 5 21
BUF 28 25 9 23 1 17 28 18 15 31 14 19 9 25 30 3
CAR 10 23 6 27 7 3 29 8 6 24 2 20 12 5 10 27
CHI 18 17 23 13 21 16 32 25 12 9 28 23 24 6 17 18
CIN 26 7 5 28 6 4 10 3 19 27 7 3 22 15 11 5
CLE 27 29 3 22 4 11 9 19 10 5 29 26 5 3 6 31
DAL 14 2 30 20 31 12 4 2 16 15 6 12 27 10 20 17
DEN 24 26 28 3 22 7 15 5 22 19 26 13 19 16 29 32
DET 13 1 18 24 23 21 9 10 32 16 25 28 23 18 1 8
GB 1 27 17 20 24 25 16 21 23 28 13 9 32 17 23 1
HOU 20 15 2 25 8 14 30 12 14 21 9 22 30 28 15 7
IND 12 31 14 9 30 2 11 28 21 8 20 30 14 29 31 25
JAX 8 5 15 2 9 31 20 30 31 12 21 25 15 30 28 26
KC 29 11 32 16 5 19 13 24 25 22 11 7 3 19 22 14
MIA 5 21 30 31 28 9 18 1 26 23 17 14 28 21 9 15
MIN 2 4 1 21 17 13 28 32 18 25 16 1 17 9 18 24
NE 21 9 11 29 25 21 23 15 9 18 1 17 25 31 14 30
NO 7 18 10 4 6 20 3 6 5 29 10 32 8 2 12 4
NYG 15 20 13 2 10 8 6 31 1 14 30 8 4 20 27 2
NYJ 30 28 21 15 14 25 17 7 28 1 31 18 21 23 25 22
OAK 19 3 7 32 11 16 5 13 11 26 19 31 29 24 26 9
PHI 31 12 32 18 8 27 6 14 2 30 15 4 2 12 8 10
PIT 25 14 29 19 26 10 22 11 27 7 3 6 7 4 3 29
SD 22 30 3 5 32 26 24 7 29 11 22 21 11 26 13 16
SEA 17 16 12 1 24 23 26 22 24 32 18 11 16 32 19 6
SF 16 24 20 26 22 19 1 23 17 13 24 27 18 13 16 11
STL 11 32 16 17 18 13 19 26 13 4 32 16 1 22 2 23
TB 3 10 4 27 29 20 12 27 4 2 8 5 10 1 7 13
TEN 9 19 25 8 15 2 31 14 3 20 12 15 31 14 21 28
WAS 23 8 31 14 12 30 15 8 20 6 4 10 20 27 24 12
Earlier I wrote that I didn't think going with three QBs was the best way to go. Depending on your league, drafting four QBs in a ten-team league might be possible. If so, it would greatly improve your committee's schedule. Here are the top committee's featuring four QBs.
864 -- Kelly Holcomb - Rex Grossman - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper 859 -- Brett Favre - Byron Leftwich - Chad Pennington - Donovan McNabb 859 -- Peyton Manning - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper - Donovan McNabb 859 -- Peyton Manning - Daunte Culpepper - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 858 -- Peyton Manning - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington - Donovan McNabb 857 -- Peyton Manning - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 857 -- Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck 856 -- Kelly Holcomb - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper - Ben Roethlisberger 856 -- Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington 855 -- Peyton Manning - Byron Leftwich - Chad Pennington - Donovan McNabb 855 -- Jake Plummer - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper - Tom Brady 855 -- Kelly Holcomb - Byron Leftwich - Tom Brady - Chad Pennington 854 -- Peyton Manning - Brett Favre - Chad Pennington - Donovan McNabb 854 -- Kelly Holcomb - Rex Grossman - Peyton Manning - Daunte Culpepper 854 -- Kelly Holcomb - Jake Plummer - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper 853 -- Rex Grossman - Jake Plummer - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper 853 -- Kelly Holcomb - Byron Leftwich - Daunte Culpepper - Chad Pennington 853 -- Peyton Manning - Brett Favre - Donovan McNabb - Philip Rivers 852 -- Peyton Manning - Jake Plummer - Daunte Culpepper - Matt Hasselbeck 852 -- Kelly Holcomb - Peyton Manning - Daunte Culpepper - Philip Rivers 852 -- Kelly Holcomb - Peyton Manning - Daunte Culpepper - Ben Roethlisberger 852 -- Kelly Holcomb - Peyton Manning - Jake Plummer - Daunte Culpepper 852 -- Peyton Manning - Kurt Warner - Chad Pennington - Matt Hasselbeck Let's take a look at that top committee. Culpepper (ADP QB8), Leftwich (QB19), Grossman (QB31) and Holcomb (not in top 35 QBs) is probably an attainable QBBC combo in a ten or even twelve team league. After drafting Culpepper, let's go through and see what to do if Leftwich (and most of the other top 20 QBs) is gone:
What if you've already drafted Culpepper and Rivers, but Grossman's gone? If that's the case, I doubt very many QBs are left, so selecting Pennington, Alex Smith -- or well, anyone -- would probably be a good move. Unfortunately, I can't do this for every quartet of QBs. Once again, the table above should help in a pinch. And if you're in trouble, falling back on Pennington, Holcomb, Smith and Grossman is usually the right answer. In normal leagues, those guys are pretty much fantasy trash. But in a league where you must start two QBs, they become moderately valuable. They'll be available as late as any starting QB and they have very easy schedules, so they're as good as a backup option as you could get. Let's go through one other quartet: Donovan McNabb (QB6), Brett Favre (QB18), and the Thundering Herd's own, Byron Leftwich (QB19) and Chad Pennington (QB32). After selecting McNabb, if Favre is gone, what should you do?
Good luck drafting, and send all questions and comments to stuart@footballguys.com.
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