Will Grant's Thoughts

If you were guaranteed that Leftwich would play a full 16-game season without injury, you'd be crazy not to draft him. Before he went down to injury last season, he was posting 16.27 fantasy points per game. Projected over 16 games, that would be about 260 fantasy points for the year, placing him somewhere in the fantasy QB9 - QB14 range, depending on your scoring system. Given the fact that Leftwich is being taken somewhere around 116 overall (QB19), he's an awesome pickup given what you're going to pay for him.

It's the 'full 16 game season' part that makes people nervous. Leftwich has never played a full 16 games in the three years he has played in the NFL. He's a big, strong passer who isn't very mobile and at 6'5", 245 lbs, he presents a big target for opposing defenses to come after. Combine that with the fact that the Jags have a tough schedule this season (including opening the season with Dallas, Pittsburgh, Indy and Washington), and it's clear that you're going to need a backup plan if Leftwich is your guy.

But the biggest problem with expecting a ton from Leftwich this season may be the retirement of his #1 WR Jimmy Smith. Smith was an important part of the Jaguar passing attack and although he had lost a step over recent years, his veteran leadership will be missed. With Smith out of the picture, that leaves second year man Matt Jones and third year disappointment Reggie Williams as the #1 and #2 receiving options for Leftwich this season. #3 Wideout Ernest Wilford is just entering his third season as well, and rookie TE Marcedes Lewis will be starting before the season is over. Add in a questionable RB corps that will probably all share the load at some point this season and you can see why people are shying away from drafting Leftwich this year.

Positives

• Great PPG fantasy QB. 16.27 PPG in 2005, 15.94 PPG in 2004. Five multiple TD passes in just eleven games last season. 21.75 PPG in his last four full games last year.
• Strong competitor who is coming into his own. Leftwich threw just five interceptions last season, a solid improvement over the 16 in 2003 and 10 in 2004. Leftwich has show solid improvement in each of his first three seasons.
• If he's healthy, he'll start. Given that Leftwich is being drafted in the QB19 range, there are a lot of questionable starters in that area. Jaguar backup David Garrard is good, but he won't be on the field if Leftwich is healthy.

Negatives

• He can't seem to stay healthy. If Leftwich is on your team, you need to have a backup ready to go. 20 PPG is great if your QB is playing, but you're in a world of hurt if your starting QB goes down and you don't have a backup.
• Question marks all around. The Jaguar top pass catchers are all young and inexperienced. Their offensive line is suspect and battling injuries. Their running game will be a mixed bag with no clear-cut feature back this season. Even if Leftwich can stay healthy, will he have the support that he needs to be successful?
• Coaching. Jack Del Rio is entering his fourth season with the Jaguars. Under his leadership, the Jaguars have never finished higher than 15th in passing yards. A healthy Leftwich with great WRS could still finish the season with only 3300 yards passing.

Final Thoughts

For Leftwich, the potential is definitely there. There are plenty of things that make him a risky pick, but the upside of 20 PPG is hard to pass up. In a year when fantasy sharks are waiting longer to draft their QBS, Leftwich is a prime example of why this strategy can work. If an 11th round QB can put 20 PPG on the board, even if it's only for half of the season, why would you want to spend a high draft pick on a QB? For 2006, use Leftwich as part of a QBBC, or grab him as a backup QB with a nice upside.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Byron_nyc:
The loss of Jimmy Smith might help Byron, as the QB can set the tempo for three young wideouts with the best overall potential outside Detroit. Above all, JAX is a really good football team. Leftwich to me this year will be statistically somewhere in the QB 8-12 range, and probably will be available in the last rounds of a draft.

Wadsworth:
In his third season he had a passer rating of near 90 and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. Having watched every game, I can tell you the low INT total was not a matter of defender dropping balls. Byron threw very few dangerous passes last season. If Carson and Ben were not going nuts as young QBs right now Leftwich's numbers would be very impressive. But the interesting part to me is that he's improved every year. Beyond that, his last 5 games last season were easily his best set of games for his career. If that pattern holds and he can stay healthy he could have a very productive season.

AeroFANatic:
I am really high on Leftwich, and I thought his 3rd season (last year) would have been his breakout year. Injuries slowed him down, but with the Jags continuing to get him better offensive weapons...this is the year he jumps into the top 13 QB's. The loss of Smith tempers TD expectations a tad....

Byron Leftwich Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Will Grant	3028	18	9	108	3
Message Board Consensus	3408	22	14	229	2