Spotlight - QB Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions

Not the stuff of legend by any means. But guess what folks? Kitna and McCown are the most accomplished quarterbacks Mike Martz has ever gotten his hands on. Think I'm crazy? Consider:

Trent Green -- Green was an 8th round pick out of Indiana that was considered to have a subpar arm and a pedigree that didn't project as a starter.
Kurt Warner -- Warner was bagging groceries and playing in the Arena league prior to winning two MVPs in St. Louis.
Marc Bulger -- Bulger was a 6th rounder from West Virginia thought to have neither the skills nor the intelligence to master an NFL offense.

But in each of those cases, Martz turned coal into diamonds by virtue of his unique system, tutelage and dynamic play-calling.

Now Mad Mike Martz is running the offense in Detroit, having accepted the OC position under new HC Rod Marinelli. Can Martz reproduce the stellar results in Detroit that he did in St. Louis?

To be fair, there are questions:

1) The offensive line -- On paper, the Lions offensive line is above average, but it's hardly the Rams line. Jeff Backus is just below the elite tackles, but solidly in the second tier. Kelly Butler, a weakness last year, is going to be pushed by Ross Verba. And the interior of the line is solid (Raiola, DeMulling, Woody) and deeper than last year (Tucker, Gutierrez, Stokes). If the Lions can build off last year's solid numbers (just 31 sacks allowed, tied for 10th best in the league); Kitna and/or McCown should have time to set up their throws.

2) The receiving corps -- From a draft day pedigree, the Lions WR corps should be better than the Rams cadre of Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and backups (be that Az-Hakim, Kevin Curtis, etc..). But let's not kid ourselves here. Holt is on the way to Hall of Fame numbers, Bruce already has done enough to make the case. The Lions WRs are, at best, underachievers, at worst, draft busts. That is, save for Roy Williams. Williams has the chance to deliver elite numbers particularly if Martz can hardness Williams physical nature.

3) The running backs -- Another huge factor in the success of the Rams QBs was the play of the RB corps. At the Rams best, Warner had an MVP-caliber running back doing anything and everything on the field. Kevin Jones is no Marshall Faulk; although he COULD be very good. If Jones can approximate the skill set of Steven Jackson; that might be good enough. And if Jones struggles catching passes, don't be surprised to see rookie Brian Calhoun inserted in obvious passing downs. Calhoun was one of the better receivers at the NCAA level last year.

Net-net...I'm a believer in the power of Mike Martz. It would be one thing if he had successfully developed one unheralded QB. But he's done it time and time again. And we already know that, absent Martz' tutelage and system, both Kitna and McCown have been decent.

Add to that an enticing schedule...Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule tells us that the Lions QBs have one of the easiest schedules in terms of projected fantasy points allowed.

OK, but this only matters if we know which guy will be the starter? A few weeks ago, this might have been more of a mystery but the coaching staff has officially tapped Jon Kitna as the starter. Nothing is set in stone until training camp concludes, but certainly Kitna has the better resume to this point.

Positives

Kitna has played well when given the chance to start, particularly two seasons ago as the Bengals stopgap prior to Carson Palmer
Mike Martz has made a career of getting prolific productivity from unheralded QB prospects
The Lions are chock full of first round offensive talent; if only the new coaching staff can unlock that potential

Negatives

Neither Kitna nor McCown are consistent enough, witness their career sub 60% completion percentages and TD-to-INT ratios
The Lions 1st round assets; namely Kevin Jones and the trio of receivers (Williams, Williams and Rogers) have been disappoints by and large
Neither Kitna nor McCown are complete players. Kitna doesn't have the physical strength to make every throw on the field, whereas McCown is an athlete but hasn't shown the consistent mechanics one would hope for

Final Thoughts

Jon Kitna is being drafted 24th among QBs, on average, according to our ADP data. Simply put, if Kitna remains the starter all season he's significantly undervalued. Look at Mike Martz' QBs and tell me a 16-game starter is going to finish that low. Yes, there are uncertainties as its a new coaching staff, new offense, new system. But honestly, this is a QB friendly system and the Lions defense simply isn't going to be good enough to keep the Lions from throwing a fair amount. Now, if Kitna isn't the starter all season, his ADP of 24 probably looks a bit high; but that also means that Josh McCown is undervalued. One way or another, the Lions QBs are going to outproduce current expectations. Whether that can translate into helping your win you fantasy leagues remains to be seen.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

rzrback77:
The message board is very high on Kitna this off-season. I am not so sure that the Detroit Lions offense will turn it around under Coach Martz. I am also not so sure that McCown will not wind up leading the team.

Kitna will be 34 years old as the 06 season begins, whereas McCown will be 27. It has been three years since Kitna had significant playing time and Detroit starts out with Seattle and on the road at Chicago. If they start out 0-2, week 3 will be a critical game for Kitna and the Lions, facing Green Bay. If he struggles there, McCown could get the call.

Musesboy:
The QB situation in Detroit is definitely one that I will steer clear of in all of my drafts. There are just too many question marks. Although Kitna may only cost a 13th round pick, I would much prefer to draft two QBs that are expected to start all year. In my opinion, far too many possibilities exist in Detroit.

Mike Martz will be installing a complicated new offense. Although Kitna has 79 career starts, the Bengals relegated him to back up Carson Palmer despite the fact that Kitna was coming off a career year in 2003. He will be 34 in September and Josh McCown is very much in contention to start at some point. McCown is 27 years old and has 22 career starts.

I am not convinced that Martz will be able to work his magic with the group of players available to him. Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk were all pro bowlers and it just might be possible that their talent was the main reason for the success of the Rams' passing game, rather than the ability of Martz. Roy Williams is not in the same class as Holt or Bruce and perhaps never will be, while the supporting cast is well below his level at present.

All of those question marks make me believe that Kitna isn't worth the risk. I believe that there will be considerable pressure on Kitna if he gets off to a slow start, and that he will almost certainly be benched once the Lions fall out of playoff contention as I expect. The last time Kitna changed teams, there was a large drop in his yards per attempt and completion percentage. It's possible that he may struggle to pick up the new offense.

David Yudkin (FBG Staff):
I'm not buying that McCown will be seeing much time unless Kitna gets hurt. Martz played Warner in 2005 with the Rams en route to an 0-5 start and Warner was just plain awful--absolutely dreadful. Warner ended up getting hurt, but he went back to him later in the year.

From all I've seen, it's not a competition--Kitna is the starter. He's been much better in picking up the new scheme. The competition is for the BACKUP QB between McCown and Orlovsky.

Jon Kitna Projections

SOURCE PYD PTD INT RSHYD RSHTD

Jason Wood 3350 22 13 55 0

Message Board Consensus 2602 16 14 61 1

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