David Yudkin's Thoughts

[Sarcasm Alert] I did some research on how 9th year WRs moving on to their 4th team with an inexperienced QB on a Bottom 10 passing team that lost their #1 WR to free agency and had another WR out with a serious knee injury with a potential stud TE returning from injuries did under those circumstances. Shockingly, I could not find any other examples that fit this description. And there you have the issue with projecting one Joe Jurevicius, for now the apparent #1 WR in Cleveland this year.

The fact that Jurevicius even merits his own Player Spotlight should signify that something quite bizarre is going on. Prior to last year, his highest ranking was as the 45th best fantasy receiver with several other seasons ranked in the 60s and 80s. Then came last year, where injuries and opportunity came knocking by way of Seattle. He set career highs in receptions and TD and just missed his career high in yardage as well, finishing the season with 55-694-10.

Now he embarks to Cleveland, a team that has struggled in recent seasons to put points on the board. The Browns ranked dead last in scoring last year and have been Bottom 5 in scoring six of the seven seasons since returning to Cleveland. Ditto the results for total yardage.

At some point early in the season, Braylon Edwards will return and should jump over the pack and secure the #1 WR spot. Competing for targets will be veteran Dennis Northcutt, one-game wonder Frisman Jackson, and rookie Travis Wilson. Last year’s top receiving threat, Antonio Bryant, has moved on to San Francisco, meaning that there’s a fair amount of receiving production to be earned and redistributed.

Jurevicius assumes a role he has not been in before—entering the season as a starter. He’s had only three games in his career with 100 or more receiving yards (out of 103 games played).

Positives

• With Edwards out, Jurevicius becomes the #1 WR by default in Cleveland. What that means production-wise, who knows. That’s a bit like saying Shaquille O’Neal is the best free throw shooting center on the Miami Heat.
• Jurevicius is by far the most experienced receiver on the team and is coming off his best season, and maybe that success will carry over this year.
• Barring unforeseen circumstances (most notably a huge uptick in Northcutt’s numbers), Jurevicius should remain a starter once Edwards returns to action.

Negatives

• QB Charlie Frye averaged 188 passing yards and 0.8 TD per game in 5 games as a starter last year. He will need to be a lot more productive this year or the Browns passing stats will once again be anemic.
• If healthy, TE Kellen Winslow could play a big role in the offense and could be the #1 or #2 receiving option on the Browns.
• The chances of Joe J approaching 10 TD again this year are extremely remote, and without all those TD he would have been a fairly average fantasy reserve WR.

Final Thoughts

The good news for fantasy owners is that Jurevicius can be had cheaply. His ADP is currently WR52 (typically going in the 13th or 14th round). FBG has him projected as the #37 WR—ahead of Antonio Bryant who left to start in San Francisco.

With Edwards' return and Winslow’s presence, Jurevicius could quickly become the third or fourth option in the passing game (again, if Northcutt plays well). Given the state of the Browns’ offence, if he were the third option, his chances of fantasy success would be limited. Jurevicius may be someone to draft and trade away after the first few weeks of the season, as there’s a decent chance he will see fewer targets as the season progresses.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Airbus79:
Unfortunately for Jurevicius, I can't see Cleveland offense taking off this year because they didn't get any immediate help from the draft and free agency except for Bentley. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Winslow, not Jurevicius, will be Cleveland's #1 receiver because of his position as a TE providing a safety valve for Frye and Frye has been hanging out with him a lot lately= positive chemistry. As a #2 wr, Jurevicius might pose similar receiving yardage stats from 2005 but his TD numbers will take a hit.

aussiehockeyfan:
You either love him or you hate him. I'm somewhere in between. But for a guy with an alledged ADP of WR #44, I say - why not? For a guy who's likely going to be the default #1 WR for at least the first month...

This team's offense does not look significantly changed from last year to me. If Braylon Edwards had remained healthy, he was getting stronger as the year went on and could well have ended up with in excess of 900 yards and 6 TD's. Bryant's of course gone.

Why is it so outlandish to think that the Browns, who are probably still the worst team in their division and who will be playing from behind a lot, will be passing as much or more than they did last year?

Until Edwards shows he's returned to form, Jurevicius is the de facto WR1 in an offense that threw for 1000 yards to its WR1 last year, something that he's never been in his career which means that his career averages are, if anything, low.

Joe Jurevicius Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
David Yudkin	0	0	52	640	4
Message Board Consensus	0	0	60	748	5