David Yudkin's Thoughts

LaMont Jordan finally got a chance to step out of Curtis Martin’s shadow and had a very productive season in his first go round as an NFL starter. Jordan joined the short list of RBs to depart as a backup, sign as a free agent, and succeed as a starter on another team.

Jordan was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise lackluster 2005 Oakland Raiders team. He averaged a shade under 20 carries and 5 receptions per game before missing the last two games with a turf toe injury. He averaged an impressive 113.4 combined yards per game, eight times exceeding 100 combined yards. Jordan was on pace for 1,171 rushing yards, 643 receiving yards, and 13 total TD. That would have totaled 259 fantasy points and ranked Jordan as the #6 RB last year.

Head coach Art Shell and offensive coordinator Tom Walsh return to the fold after a 12-year hiatus, and part of the challenge in analyzing and projecting Jordan is deciphering what direction the offense will take in 2006. The Shell/Walsh duo was the brain trust of the team from 1989 - 1994, and neither has coached in the NFL since. No one really knows whether they plan to revamp their game plan dramatically, leave their base offense mostly the same, or utilize a hybrid with what exiled Norv Turner had in place.

Back in the first Shell/Walsh era, the Raiders typically ranked slightly higher in the team rushing rankings than passing rankings. The team often used a RBBC approach, with a rotation that included Bo Jackson, Marcus Allen, Steve Smith, Napoleon McCallum, Roger Craig, Eric Dickerson, Greg Robinson, and Harvey Williams depending on the year. Williams was the only one to see a featured back’s workload, garnering 282 carries and 47 receptions in 1994. No other back had a season with 200 carries.

Looking at the current Raiders’ roster, there does not appear to be another RB that will give Jordan a serious challenge for major touches. Justin Fargas and Zack Crockett are still around, and the other options have limited experience. With the exception of one season, the combined total of TD scored by the Raiders’ RB corps under Shell maxed out at 10 TD in a season. Of particular interest, running backs as a unit with Shell averaged 61 receptions per year. Neither one of those stats should be considered a positive for Jordan, but that was then and this is now.

Some people have wondered how this will impact Jordan’s receiving numbers for this year, suggesting that Kerry Collins often dumped the ball off to Jordan while another QB may not be as likely to do so. Assuming that Aaron Brooks wins the starting job, he has shown in the past that he does look a fair amount to his RB, with Deuce McAllister averaging 53 receptions a year in his healthy years.

Positives

• Clear incumbent on a team with a potent offense playing for a coach that, back in the day, liked to run the ball (Shell-era teams averaged 449 rushing attempts per year vs. 361 carries for the 2005 Raiders).
• Put the naysayers in their place, posting great numbers in his first season as a starter, ranking as the #8 RB even missing two games.
• Runs like a stud RB, catches like a WR. Only RB to have 10+ receiving yards in every game played and led all running backs in targets and receptions in 2005. Stock even higher in PPR leagues.

Negatives

• When the smoke clears, major coaching changes, uncertainty at QB, and a team built to pass may not yield optimum results for Jordan.
• Durability has been an issue, and several players in the past have struggled to recover from turf toe injuries.
• If the Raiders’ defense is as porous as in recent seasons, they will be playing from behind (scoring differential of -324 points since their Super Bowl season), potentially fueling even more passing attempts.

Final Thoughts

Jordan should again be showcased out of the backfield, but the smart money will take the under on 70 receptions for the upcoming season. Shell will likely run more often (which in itself might keep games closer) to level off the pass-to-run ratio (590 to 261 in 2005).

A healthy Randy Moss might take away a few touches but could also improve Jordan’s production per touch, so that may be a non-issue. That might change if Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel, Ronald Curry can all stay healthy (that hasn’t happened yet in 3 years). The worst case scenario would see Crockett going back to being a goal line back and Fargas getting close to 100 carries to keep Jordan fresh.

Given Shell’s penchant for running the ball (at least in the past), Jordan might get a bump up to 22 carries a game but drop off some reception-wise (from 5 to 3.5 receptions per game).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Maurile Tremblay (Staff Writer):
In the first 14 games of the season (before he missed the last two games with turf toe), LaMont Jordan accounted for 1025 of the Raiders' 1257 rushing yards -- 82%. Even adding back in the last two games, Jordan accounted for 75% of the team's rushing yards and 30% of its total yards from scrimmage.

Those are high numbers. I don't see how Jordan's role in the offense can possibly increase, and it is very likely to decrease.

The Raiders' offense as a whole generally underachieved last year, however, and a rising tide would lift all ships. With stronger play from the OL, it is possible that Jordan's numbers (especially his rushing numbers) could improve in absolute terms even while accounting for a smaller percentage of the team's production as a whole.

Blackjacks:
Disappointment is on the horizon for many of Jordan's owners. You guys are acting like he's been consistent (1st year ever in the top 25). You're acting like since he's with the Raiders he's a lock to be in the top 15, (do we have to go back to Charlie Garner to expect that?) Jordan has done it one year and that was with Norv "I will make a running back have a career year" Turner at the helm. I'm not saying Jordan will be horrible but all these #'s are a little much I think.

massraider:
As far as Walsh and Shell are concerned, I dunno what kind of offense they are going to run, but it isn't like they are replacing some innovative masterpiece either. Turner's offense was stagnant, predictable, and far from explosive. Collins played not to lose, but he had little protection, and I have no idea if that was his play, the offense, or both.

LaMont Jordan Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
David Yudkin	308	1232	8	49	402	1
Message Board Consensus	304	1218	10	49	376	2