David Yudkin's Thoughts

Of all the running backs in fantasy football this season, none is as hard to project as Thomas Jones. If healthy and the clear starter in Chicago, he could approach Top 5 numbers.  If pushed aside by Cedric Benson, he might not even rank in the Top 40.

Jones comes off a career year, having posted a fine campaign with 1,335 rushing yards, 143 receiving yards, and 9 total TD and ranking as the No. 9 fantasy RB.  In normal circumstances, considering another back to start the following year would rarely be a consideration, but such is the case for Jones entering training camp in 2006.  Jones elected to skip voluntary mini-camp as part of his displeasure with his contract and has since tweaked a hamstring and could miss some time in training camp.  Benson has been slated to work out with the first team and has the majority share of the starting RB position (albeit a tenuous hold).  Jones will have to fight to get the job back and at the very least earn back playing time.

There were 162 occasions since 1960 that a running back had at least 1,300 rushing yards in a season.  Only twice did any of those backs lose their starting spot to begin the following season (not counting players that started the following season with injuries).  Denver RB Mike Anderson had
1,487 rushing yards in 2000 and gave way to the return of Terrell Davis in 2001.  Charles White had 1,374 yards in 1987 for the Rams taking over for the traded Eric Dickerson.  By 1988, the Rams had moved on to Greg Bell (and I can’t be 100% sure that White wasn’t injured to start the season).

There were a handful of occasions when one of those 1,300-yard backs lost the starting job the year after at some point DURING the season, and those include Corey Dillon to Rudi Johnson in CIN in 2003, Stephen Davis to Kenny Watson in WAS in 2002, and what will likely be the most comparable situation to Jones Travis Henry to Willis McGahee in BUF in 2004.

Not many people felt that Henry would be supplanted by McGahee that year, as teams rarely made a change given how productive Henry had been.  Thus may be the situation this year in Chicago, as Benson has the Top 5 draft pick pedigree and the big paycheck while Jones is getting a modest salary by comparison.

Jones also has another interesting quirk about him.  From what I could find, he’s one of only four running backs selected in the first round of the NFL draft that had his first 1,000-yard rushing season in his sixth season or later (James Brooks and James Stewart in their sixth year and Charles White in his seventh).  Most RB drafted in the first round have accomplished that feat early on or not at all.  (And this year Ron Dayne hopes to have his first 1,000 yard rushing season in this his seventh season.)

Jones has looked and performed like a different back since leaving Arizona. In 39 games with the Cardinals, Jones had only one game with 100+ total yards.  In 45 games since then (with TB and CHI), Jones has had 100+ total yards 16 times.  His workload, rushing yardage, total yardage, and total TD have increased each of the past three seasons.

Yet even with all that, Jones is in serious position to lose his starting job to upstart and ballyhooed teammate Cedric Benson.  At least for now, the Bears seem content to promote Benson, complete with his 67 lifetime carries, one career reception, and zero touchdowns.

There has also been talk about a possible trade for Jones (confirmed by the Bears), and if a trade were to occur Jones would need to be reevaluated as to his 2006 fantasy outlook.

Positives

• Jones finally had the year that his talent level (and draft position) indicated that he was capable off—and on a team that had very few offensive weapons.
• He’s an asset in pounding the ball, breaking to the outside, and catching passes and has proven to be very versatile in Chicago the past two seasons.
• If Jones is the primary ball carrier again, he could see the ball quite a bit with a smothering defense, a conservative offensive scheme, and a very unproven passing attack.

Negatives

• Jones is currently on the outside looking in with regard to the Bears’ starting tailback position. If that doesn’t revert to last year’s pecking order, Thomas could easily become a fantasy afterthought this year.
• Even if he were to get a decent workload, Jones at times has struggled to stay in the lineup and has averaged two missed games per year over his career.
• Unless the Bears show that they can throw the ball with any consistency (bottom three in most team passing categories last year), Jones could see a steady diet of eight men in the box.

Final Thoughts

Obviously this is a fluid situation and one that bears watching to see how it plays out by opening day.  Jones should give Benson a run for his money, and if reason and common sense pervade the Bears front office, Jones will end up as the starter again.

In this situation, it’s hard to read the tealeaves when you are working with coffee beans, and that’s a bit what we have here.  If I were to assess what will happen this year, I would liken this situation to the way things played out in Buffalo with Henry and McGahee.  As I see it, Jones will get the majority of carries to start the year but will slowly lose out to Benson and could have a dramatically reduced role by the end of the year.

Unfortunately for Jones, he really did nothing to preclude him from losing his job, but Benson has the big contract and the long-term potential and eventually Jones will have to take a back seat.  At the very least, Benson should be able to earn half the workload in the latter part of the season provided both are still in the mix by then (no trades or injuries).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

smetankafanclub:
To me the Chicago Bears RB situation is the type of thing that in the end vaults a fantasy team to championship contention, or unravels the whole season for you. Between what Jones showed last year, him now not showing up to camp, Benson and the huge contract, you have more to worry about before you even start to think about what either player could do during the year.

Both healthy and playing I do not think either will have a big year. Given the youth and contract of Benson I think if he shows sparks that may limit Jones' carries, I am not sure if the reverse is true however. Now if either gets hurt and misses substantial time, the other has huge potential, but I don't think u could draft Jones hoping that Benson gets hurt.

On some level it is similar to the conundrum the Chiefs had with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, and the performance of Johnson in 2004 translated into the 3rd of the carries while Priest was even healthy in 2005. The difference here is I don't think Jones is nearly as tough to bench as Holmes was in favor of a young emerging player.

Byron nyc:
The Bears wanted to bench Thomas Jones last year for rookie top pick Cedric Benson, but Benson's holdout let the veteran cement his hold. Not this year. You don't pay Benson all those millions in guaranteed money to sit on the bench two years. Draft Jones and get your heart broken.

Rev:
Jones didn't learn from Benson's holdout last year, and he's going to pay the price for it. The two have swapped positions this season, this time Jones missing first-team reps while crying for more money. At the very least, this gives Benson a prime opportunity to demonstrate his skills that the Bears drafted him for. Jones will have the periodic injury, but will be back in time to compete for the job. He will certainly be in on third downs more than Benson, but Peterson will demand some touches there as well.

nerangers:
Thomas Jones is good for 4 yds avg a carry when on the field. So the question is how many carries will he get? Based on last years numbers, and guessing Jones and Benson will split carries (they need to get Benson more involved if he is the Chicago Bears RB of the Future), I don't think Jones will get more than 200 carries. I do think he will still be the option at the goal line.

Thomas Jones Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
David Yudkin	220	900	6	20	125	0
Message Board Consensus	243	977	7	34	200	1