Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

With the sudden retirement of WR Jimmy Smith in Jacksonville, the door opened wide for three Jaguar receivers to elevate their status in the Jacksonville offense. WR Matt Jones appears to be the most likely candidate to fill the primary target role, with WRs Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford competing for the second starting spot.

One can make a case that these three have to fill Smith’s production void of 70 catches, 1,000+ yards and six touchdowns last season, but I do not think that this is a valid argument. Jacksonville has improved the tight end position since then via the draft, selecting Marcedes Lewis in the first round in April. Lewis is likely to start for the Jaguars and it will not be very hard for him to out pace last year’s group of tight ends that combined for a paltry 326 yards on 34 receptions.

Compounding the wide receiver issue is that Jacksonville is a defensive-minded team with a ball control offense that emphasizes the run game. The passing attack takes a back seat to running the ball and eating up clock unless the Jaguars are trailing. Jacksonville was a “middle of the road” offense in 2005, finishing 15th overall in offense, 19th passing, but 10th via the run. In fact, Jacksonville was the only team in the Top 12 of rushing that had an average yards per carry under 4.0, which shows how committed they are to moving the ball on the ground.

So what does this mean for Matt Jones and company? I see bigger production for Jones, Wilford and Williams but no huge leap in production for any of them. Jones has been held in high regard because he is speedster (4.38 40 time) and a huge talent, measuring at 6’6” and 235 pounds, which sounds more like a tight end than a receiver. Combining all those traits and Jones should present matchup problems for the defense, but the issue for him this year is he will likely be covered by the best cover corner on the defense every week. Can Jones produce at a higher level than he did in 2005? Absolutely, but I don’t see him putting up Jimmy Smith numbers this year.

Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams are both interesting players. Wilford was the favored end zone target last year catching seven touchdowns. Williams is the more consistent target and better run blocker, but he lacks Wilford’s big play abilities. I am expecting both Wilford and Williams to see plenty of time on the field this year and an also expect an uptick in all of their numbers, but nothing that would make me put either one in my starting fantasy lineup on a consistent basis. I expect Wilford to add about 200 yards from last year and Williams about 250, neither of which would elevate either one to a starting fantasy wide receiver.

Positives

• Matt Jones is a physical specimen with excellent speed and size, which will create matchup issues for the defense
• Ernest Wilford is a playmaker with a nose for the end zone, leading the team in touchdown receptions last year
• A healthy and more experienced Byron Leftwich should improve the passing game and help all three receivers to improve this season

Negatives

• Without Jimmy Smith, there is no clear #1 WR. All three Jaguars will be facing tougher defenders, especially Matt Jones, who will be likely opposed by the best defensive corner on the field
• The Jaguars are a defense first and ball control offense with an emphasis on the ground game
• Jacksonville may be rotating all three receivers, particularly Wilford and Williams, hurting all of their fantasy value.

Final Thoughts

Matt Jones is currently being drafted around WR#36 based on his ADP. With other talented WRs at similar ADPs with higher probability of bigger outputs this year (Reggie Brown, Joe Jurevicius for example), I cannot see taking Jones quite that high, although his projections would have him close to WR#30 last season. The uncertainty at the receiver positions for Jacksonville would have me rather leery of taking Jones unless he was slipping in my draft. The same can be said for Wilford, as his ADP puts him at WR#41, which seems a bit high. Reggie Williams is a much better value, as he is way down the charts at WR#60. If he matches my projections he will be in the Top 50 for certain, probably higher. The uncertainty in how the Jaguars will utilize Williams acts as a positive in this case, as his availability late in a draft reflects some risk in taking him, but the upside of picking him with one of your last draft picks is a big value. I would certainly take him after Round 14 or 15.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Musesboy:
The Jaguars lost Jimmy Smith to retirement this year after he had led the team in receiving for ten straight seasons. Smith's retirement seemingly came out of nowhere, and was announced well after the NFL Draft, and also after the high profile free agent WRs had been signed. That left the Jaguars with an inexperienced group of receivers that have 34 career starts between them. None of them have 1000 career receiving yards to their name, let alone 1000 in a single season.

It was initially believed that Ernest Wilford would be the new number one receiver as he had finished 2005 strongly and gained more yards than the rest of the possibles. But his lack of speed seems to be a stumbling block and he is said to be more suited to the slot. That leaves Matt Jones as the favorite to become the main target, and Reggie Williams is in line for the number two role.

Jones is 6'6" and has excellent speed, but he is extremely raw with only one start to his name. The team likes his potential but it will probably take a year before we see what he can really do. Opportunity is important and Jones appears to have that right now.

Wilford's stock has fallen considerably in the last two months, and he is now not even certain to be the third option, although it seems likely. The Jaguars are not a threat to score a huge number of rushing TDs, so the bulk of their scoring is likely to come from the passing game.

Sabertooth:
Matt Jones has absolutely sick measurables. There is no better man in the NFL from a size/speed ratio. Not only is he tall, he's thicker than most tall wideouts. He obviously needs to learn how to use his size to his advantage and preseason should go a long way in show if he's been learning those skills.

Z-Dog:
I'm a little surprised by all the people low-balling Jones on TDs. I mean, sure, I can see projecting him at 60 catches, but on 36 catches last year he managed 5 TDs, and he only started one game. Is there a better red-zone threat on the team than this giant WR? Fred Taylor doesn't score TDs anymore. Greg Jones is OK, but he's not going to score all the Jax TDs. Matt Jones should collect at least 9 TDs.

Cool in the pocket:
Jones and Wilford both have great size and make solid redzone options. Somebody needs to pick up the 900/6 that Jimmy vacated, don't they?. If Del Rio had his way, he'd probably run the ball down the other teams throat and let his stellar D take care of the rest. I just don't think he has the horses there, both on the OL and in the backfield. Taylor's tendency to get nicked up combined with the running game's inability to punch it on when close creates some interesting intrigue here. I believe Jones will emerge as Jax's #1 WR. His running ability combined with the potential to pass sweetens the pot even more plus he'll have another year of WR experience under his belt. After 7 TDs last year, Wilford's upside is more limited IMHO and considering they are both going in basically the same round, I'll be leaning towards Jones for sure. He presents great value in that you can land a multi dimensional player in round 9 that could be the #1 WR on his team at year end.

Matt Jones Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jeff Pasquino	0	0	60	880	7
Message Board Consensus	0	0	62	856	8