Jason Wood's Thoughts

Last year, Footballguys resident stats guru Doug Drinen made the observation that he never recalled a situation where our staff universally expected greatness from an unproven player the way we did with Kevin Jones. He too was optimistic about Jones' chances, but wondered if our universal endorsement of the embattled Detroit Lion should serve as a contrarian indicator against drafting him.

As it turned out, we all convinced ourselves yet again that KJ was a stud in waiting and recommended him aggressively to fantasy owners. Well, things didn't quite work out the way we planned now did they?

• 13 games played
• 186 rushes
• 664 yards
• 3.6 YPR
• 5 rushing TDs
• 28 receptions
• 109 receiving yards
• 0 receiving TDs
• 107 fantasy points (RB31)

So what went wrong with KJ last year, and have things changed for the better this season?

1) We underestimated the toxicity of the locker room -- Remember when Steve Mariucci was considered a good coach? We barely do either, particularly after last season's debacle that led to his ouster midway through the year. What the Lions had in talent, they lacked in heart and discipline.

Have things changed? Absolutely. Regardless of how many wins the Lions notch this year, you can be certain that it won't be for lack of discipline or focus. New head coach Rod Marinelli is a hard-nosed defensive mind who preaches discipline at every turn. Reports out of OTAs and mini-camp show that Marinelli is a "tough love" coach out of the Bill Parcells mold. His top assistants, including Mike Martz, are of similar mind.

2) We underestimated the ineptitude of the Lions offensive system -- The West Coast offense can only be successful when players focus on the little things. The difference between a 50-yard quick slant TD reception and a 5-yard catch and tackle is often the precision of the receiver's cut. The difference between a 20-yard scamper off tackle and a tackle at the line of scrimmage is the receiver or tight end holding their block for an extra second. With the Lions last year, nary a player exhibited the crispness and attention to detail necessary for the WCO to work.

Have things changed? Absolutely. Mike Martz may not be remembered as the best head coach of his era, but no one in their right mind can question his offensive system. His offenses have always been productive and Martz has publicly endorsed Kevin Jones as the focal point of the attack. To those who worry about Martz' pass/pass/pass tendencies in St. Louis, remember two things. One, he's not the head coach, Rod Marinelli is and has preached the need for offensive balance. Two, Martz' best years came with Marshall Faulk playing at an MVP level; it's revisionist history to suggest Martz doesn't value a talented runner.

3) We mistook Kevin Jones' ability to transcend his supporting cast -- A lot of us fell hook, line and sinker for Kevin Jones' monster 2nd half of his rookie season. In the last eight games of 2004, Jones led the league in rushing (906 yards, 5.2 YPC). Many presumed that he was simply too talented to be denied his numbers, regardless of whether Joey Harrington and the receiving corps were effective, regardless of whether the offensive line opened up holes. After all, LaDainian Tomlinson ran wild behind a woeful Chargers line in his rookie season. Barry Sanders never failed to get his numbers. Why couldn't Kevin Jones do the same?

Have things changed? Probably not. Look, it's a rare thing when a runner can transcend a subpar OL and supporting cast. Kevin Jones isn't one of those guys, or at least we have good reason to doubt whether he's a transcendent talent. But that doesn't mean he can't be a productive fantasy player; particularly if his supporting cast has improved.

4) We underestimated Kevin Jones deficiencies as a blocker and receiver -- In almost all cases, elite fantasy RBs are multi-faceted. Beyond the obvious rushing totals, they are able receivers and above average blockers. Without those skills, a player can't play every down; which makes it much harder to put up elite production. In Jones' case, he failed to grow as a receiver (20 receptions, 5.5 yards per reception) or as a pass blocker (the team pulled him on 3rd downs and obvious passing situations).

Have things changed? Possibly. If you're to believe Jones, he spent the offseason working feverishly to improve in both areas.

“During the offseason I was trying to catch about 100 balls a day; a little over 100,” said Jones, who has shown an ease in catching the football throughout the offseason practice and workout sessions. “Coach Montgomery was shooting them to me, or he was throwing the ball to me and I caught a little bit extra with the quarterbacks."

“I want to be the best back and I have to be able to catch the ball and do all those things. They just come easy to me now because once you start doing something every day it just becomes repetition.”

Just rhetoric? or a sign of things to come?

Positives

• Jones has a renewed sense of purpose and will benefit from a firmer, more focused coaching staff
• As a pure runner, Jones has a rare combination of size, speed, leverage and vision
• Mike Martz has sung Jones praises, and is sure to improve the tenor of the Lions offense by leaps and bounds

Negatives

• Last year Jones was part of the problem, not the solution
• Until we see the improvement on the field, we have to consider Jones a 2-down player due to limited effectiveness as a receiver and blocker
• Steven Jackson, who many consider a superior talent, never had monster fantasy numbers while playing for Martz

Final Thoughts

According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Lions one of the easiest schedules against the rush. Seven of the team's 16 games are against the bottom rung of the league, while only two games are forecast against top shelf defensive units. Jones can certainly pound out the yardage when he's focused and healthy, but can he become an every down player this year? Can the Lions get into the red zone enough to ensure Jones' TD totals will impress? As long as you aren't expecting Herculean stats from Jones, he makes a compelling option in the late second or early third. Personally, I have him ranked RB20 which means I would rather grab him in the 3rd as my 3rd RB; but it wouldn't be much of surprise if he finished in the top-15. His current ADP = RB16; which is right in line with his projected output. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Winning IS Everything:
Kevin has good size and speed ratio you like to see in a running back. He is not afraid to run over the pile either. I see the new coaching staff wanting to find out if Jones will be the guy. I will give a little bump to the run game from their four year average of 1350 RB rush yards and figure the position for 1475 with a little upside. I will also give a slight bump to the four year average of 7 RB touchdowns a year.

menobrown:
1. First and foremost he won't be catching that many passes if he comes out on third down like he did last year. So my prediction is predicated on him not coming out on third downs. Mooch and his RB platoon system is gone and I've read the reports that say he will be an every down back and I'm inclined to believe it right now.

2. The system of Mike Martz leads to a ton of catches for his RB's. Marshall usually caught over 80 a year and Jackson caught over 40 last year while getting removed for a lot of third down work which lead to Marshall also catching over 40 passes and both RB's combining to go over 80. Other RB's such as Trung Canidate, Lamar Gordon and Arlen Harris have all come in and caught a lot of passed in Martz's offense when they were provided playing time.

Rev:
In his rookie campaign, Jones had 241 carries (@ 4.7 yards/carry) combined with 41 targets for 28 receptions (6.4 yards/reception). Last year, he carried the ball only 186 times (3.6 yards/carry) and was targeted 28 times for 20 receptions (5.5 yards/reception). Both seasons, he ran for 5 TDs. Simply put: Jones is more productive with more touches. Given that Jones has been working extremely hard to hone his receiving skills, he could very well become a legitimate, 3-down back, which in Martz' system means FF delight. If Jones can find a way to stay healthy and fend off the very talented Brian Calhoun, expect impressive numbers in 2006:

Gandalf:
It's true; I have been beating the poor defense in 2004 drum for a while. This boosted KJ's numbers. And, KJ was SO bad last year and it wasn't solely Mooch's fault. Part of the blame has to land squarely on KJ's shoulders. He quit on his team in 2-3 games, kept getting injured and looked lost even when healthy.

That said, Martz is the new coach and he gets another chance to prove his worth. I know plenty of burned owners who won't draft him ever again, which probably means he's great value. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for a rebound, but I'm skeptical that all the issues from last year have been cured by a new coach. We shall see.

Kevin Jones Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	245	1100	7	35	225	1
Message Board Consensus	269	1214	7	40	283	2