Jason Wood's Thoughts

Julius Jones has a lot to prove in the next few months. There is no question that Bill Parcells likes the former Notre Dame Golden Domer; and thinks he's capable of being the Cowboys' lead runner. But the reality is Parcells has a distaste for injuries, particularly nagging ones. Jones has missed 11 games in his first two seasons, including 3 games a year ago with a sore ankle. Regardless of Jones' talents, Parcells will look at alternatives if he can't prove more durable.

"Now durability is a big deal at the running back position," Parcells said. "So he's had a little tough luck. But I think things will get better for him."

Marion Barber III changes the equation. If Jones didn't have someone barking at his ankles, Jones would be a safer bet even if you thought he might miss a few games. But Marion Barber III is the kind of talent that could step into the lineup as an injury fill-in and never relinquish the job.

"But wait a second Woodrow, Marion Barber's numbers weren't very good last year either.."

Ah, but I disagree!

If you look at Barber's full season totals, they don't particularly jump out at you relative to Jones:

• 138 rushes
• 538 yards rushing
• 3.9 YPR
• 5 TDs
• 18 receptions
• 115 rec yards
• 0 rec TDs

But take a look at Barber's numbers when given a full-time role (defined as 15+ touches in a game):

• Six games
• 102 rushes
• 433 yards rushing
• 4.3 YPR
• 5 TDs
• 12 receptions
• 75 rec yards
• 0 rec TDs

Pro rate that over a full 16-game season, and you've got:

• 272 rushes
• 1,155 yards rushing
• 13 TDs
• 32 receptions
• 197 rec yards
• 0 rec TDs

The bottom line is Marion Barber has the goods to be a better-than-average starting tailback in this league; as well as a solid fantasy contributor. And Bill Parcells is clearly taking a liking to him.

Getting back to Jones, you can now see why the next few months are so pivotal. He needs a productive and healthy training camp. He needs to outplay Barber week after week.

The good news for Jones' owners (or prospective owners) is that he SHOULD be able to do just that. In games where he was healthy, Jones has been explosive and an all-purpose running machine. He runs with balance, a low center of gravity and can make yards after contact.

It's all up to Jones, folks. If he has three or four weeks of great camp between now and your draft, I say he's worth his current ADP, which puts him in the second or third round of 10- and 12-team leagues. But you would be wise to handcuff him with Barber in Round 8 or 9; particularly if Jones is one of your first two RBs selected.

Other factors to consider when evaluating Jones:

1. Offensive line...is it better? -- The Cowboys signed Jason Fabini and Kyle Kosier in the offseason and welcome back Flozell Adams from injured reserve; but does that equate to substantive improvement? Fabini has struggled in the early part of camp, and Kosier was considered expendable by the woeful 49ers. The answer to this question hinges on Flozell Adams; if he's healthy and dominant, the rest of the line should fall into synch.
2. Terrell Owens...red zone touches? -- Terrell Owens is one of the best red zone WRs in league history, and his presence is going to take away touches from the other Cowboys skill position players. But Parcells has always believed in running the ball near the goal line and one shouldn't expect that to change much if at all this year.
3. The lack of a blocking fullback -- The Cowboys may not even carry a true fullback on the roster; instead opting for a single back pro-style formation that relies on two TEs more often. Some backs flourish in this scheme, others need a blocking back to set the pace. It's unclear what this change means to Jones and Barber, but it bears close scrutiny.

Positives

• Jones has been dominant when healthy, showing power and speed in abundance
• The Cowboys will run the ball north of 500 times, meaning plenty of work whether Jones has to share carries or not
• With Terrell Owens aboard, the Cowboys should have a potent offense and see frequent trips into the red zone; that should translate into more scoring chances for the Cowboys RBs

Negatives

• Jones hasn't been able to stay healthy, missing 11 games in his first two seasons; and Bill Parcells has publicly announced that future injuries won't be well tolerated
• Marion Barber is more than an adequate alternative, he could easily wrestle the job away and never relinquish the rock
• The offensive line, while bolstered by offseason signings, remains a major question mark and hasn't played well in the early part of camp

Final Thoughts

Julius Jones is a talented runner on a run-first team. If he can say healthy, there's every reason to think he could push for 1,500+ yards from scrimmage and 10+ TDs at a minimum. However, given his first two seasons, it's hardly a foregone conclusion that he'll remain healthy. To be fair, neither injury is considered chronic, and he deserves another chance. Watch Jones in camp. If he's healthy and dominant, he's worth consideration as your RB2 in the second half of round 2. However if Jones is dealing with nagging injuries in camp OR Marion Barber is outplaying him by a wide margin, pass on Jones and look to grab Barber a round earlier than his ADP would suggest.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

FTRWRTR:
JJ shows flashes of brilliance but can't stay healthy to save his life. In his short career he's never started more than 12 games or rushed for 1,000 yards. Now he has the MB3 breathing down his neck and with the offseason acquisition of Terrell Owens as well as drafting a tight end in the 2nd round of the draft you have to figure the cowboys plan to pass more

Musesboy:
Julius Jones is in a very good situation in Dallas, but his inability to stay on the field has created a minor controversy due to the presence of Marion Barber. The Cowboys and Parcells love to run the football, and Jones averaged 27.4 carries per game when he finally got healthy in his rookie season. He played hurt at times last year and again failed to break the 1000 yard mark, despite playing in 13 games, and I don't expect Parcells to give him as big a workload now that Barber is on board.

Despite the fact that Jones carried the ball almost twice as many times as Barber, the pair ended the season with 5 TDs each. Latest reports suggest that Parcells likes Barber's blocking and receiving ability, as well as his success running the football inside.

Although Parcells likes to control games on the ground, the addition of Terrell Owens will change the dynamic of the team to some extent. Parcells is not stupid, and he will know that Owens is a dangerous weapon. The Eagles ran considerably less when Owens was added to the offense. And so while the potential is there for Jones and Barber to carry 450 times between them, I don't believe it will happen even if they are winning games.

Barber has shown enough to seriously eat into the production of Jones, and if he starts seeing time on third down as has been suggested, I do not see Jones meeting the expectations of those that draft him. There is even a slight danger that further injury might hand the starting job to Barber for good.

Banger:
JJ is screaming risk this year. If you are a gambler he might end up hitting a home run for you or he might end up producing next to nothing.

Consider:

- awful injury history
- playing for one of the toughest coach's in the league and will remove a guy without hesitation
- the coach is on record as having issues with his injury history
- MB3 appears to be designated for 3rd down/possible goal line duty
- MB3 in limited action performed as well as Jones and the coach seems to like him

The guy has averaged 4.2 and 3.9 ypc in two seasons so it's not as if he's some irreplaceable stud. I don't know how good a blocker Jones is but I've read that Barber is a good blocker as well.

Julius Jones Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	280	1150	8	40	245	1
Message Board Consensus	233	1003	7	26	194	1