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Spotlight - RB Greg Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Posted on 8/1, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts
I must be a glutton for punishment because once again I see value in "Fragile" Fred Taylor. For some, it probably seems like Fred Taylor has never been healthy for a full season. Yet it was just a year ago that the pundits were pointing out how the moniker no longer applied to Taylor. From 2002-2004, Taylor played in 46 games. Over those three seasons, Taylor had at least 1,200 yards rushing each year and averaged:
But then came 2005 and the mysterious knee surgery. In the 2005 offseason, Fred Taylor announced that what most thought to be minor arthroscopic surgery was actually a more serious procedure. He wasn't able to participate in most of camp and clearly wasn't himself for most of the season. He ended up missing 5 games and was ineffective in several others. In his place, the Jaguars used a combination of backs. Greg Jones, who was converted to fullback last preseason, was quickly returned to tailback and made the biggest fantasy impact. In 14 games, Jones had 151 carries for 575 yards and 4 TDs. But in many of those games Jones was used sparingly. In the 5 games that Jones had at least 15 carries, he averaged:
Those numbers may not jump out at you, but consider that they equate to over a 16-game schedule:
Clearly, Jones can shoulder the load as a runner when given the chance. But, as his receiving numbers show, he's not a multi-dimensional back. Whether Taylor or Jones are the main ball carrier, it's a safe bet the Jaguars will look for an alternative in obvious passing situations. Last year's choice was rookie Alvin Pearman. Pearman, an undersized scatback out of Virginia, caught 70 passes as a junior in college. He seems to be a prototypical 3rd down back and he led the Jaguars RBs in catches (32), yards (240) and yards per reception (7.5). But, if you're to believe some local reports, Pearman may be fighting for his job this season thanks to the addition or rookie Maurice Drew out of UCLA. Drew, even smaller than Pearman, was an explosive game breaker in college who broke plays as a runner, receiver and special teams returner. The Jags would like nothing more than to have Drew contribute as the team's returner and in 3rd downs. Either way, Pearman or Drew should see whatever passes the RBs are going to see from QB Byron Leftwich. LaBrandon Toefield and Wali Lundy are also in the mix. Toefield is particularly enticing as some reports have stated he's a longshot to make the final roster while more recent reports contend he's having the best training camp of any Jags player. Go figure. But what about Fred Taylor? Should you consider drafting him or pay closer attention to the backups as late round roster fillers? The good news is Taylor participated in OTAs and mini-camps and looked phenomenal by all accounts. The bad news? A "mild" hamstring strain has impacted him in the early part of camp. Neither he nor the coaches are sounding the alarm bell, but it would be a lot easier for fantasy owners if Taylor could make it through camp unscathed. Will OC Carl Smith divvy up the touches in a committee approach, even with Taylor healthy? That's possible, but in my estimation, a healthy Taylor is so far and away better than anyone else in the RB corps, it wouldn't be efficient to use him in a rotation.
Positives
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Final Thoughts
At his current ADP, Taylor isn't a risky proposition. You can roster him in the 5th or 6th round which means, at worst, he's a guy you probably view as your 3rd RB and a backup. As long as Taylor participates in the bulk of training camp prior to your draft day, I think he's a compelling option. Taylor, even at his best, is neither a great receiver nor a particularly effective goal line runner. With Greg Jones (goal line) and Maurice Drew (3rd downs) able alternatives in those situations, you absolutely need Taylor to be a yardage machine week in, week out to maximize his fantasy value. The other Jaguars backs, particularly "fullback" Greg Jones shouldn't be forgotten either. In 10- and 12-team leagues, Jones should be drafted regardless of Taylor's health. He's a solid handcuff option, but also an intriguing late round flier in his own right. The other backs shouldn't be anything more than very late redraft picks, barring a major injury that shuffles the depth chart. Draft accordingly.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
Musesboy: Latest reports claim that Taylor is in the shape of his life. He has added six pounds to last year's playing weight, and is now at 227 while retaining his burst. If all that is true, Taylor should still have something left to offer. He is 30 years old and could have one big season left in him. Taylor is currently being drafted at the end of the fifth round in 12 team leagues. That would represent excellent value if he starts ten games or more, and he has started 57 of the last 64. It is fashionable to knock a player when he is down, and if repeated often enough, it is easy to start to believe it as fact. That tendency is something you can use to your advantage this year by drafting Taylor as your third back. He should easily outperform his RB30 ADP. The Jaguars have lost Jimmy Smith; their leading receiver since 1996. I would not be surprised if the team relies more on the running game. Maurice Drew was drafted in the second round, while Greg Jones has filled in when required in the past. I expect the Jaguars to continue with Taylor as the featured back for as long as his body can take it. Drew will probably see very little action, and Jones will possibly see some goal line and short yardage action, resulting in less yards per carry. Toefield isn't certain to be active every week but could see some third down work when he is. Pearman has no value at this point.
Rovers: Will Fragile burn me again? On a pure hunch, I think he could have a near-career year. The mini camp reports sucked me in this time. I don't expect much TD production, but I have this hunch he could rush for 1500 this year. Well, I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again....
rzrback77: Jimmy Smith retired, but they have three nice WRs to compete and provide depth. The team has drafted WRs in early rounds recently and with their young quarterback, fantasy enthusiasts sense an increase in the passing numbers, at the expense of the running game. Add in the week six bye which with other questions lowers the appeared value. Fred Taylor is currently FBGs 30th RB with an ADP of 59. I think that he could be an awesome value this season. Jacksonville could favor the running game even more this season as their offensive line has been bolstered with a nice run blocker and their receivers are all young. They tend to stick with one guy between the twenties and I think that Fred Taylor will remain the guy. I see Greg Jones returning to fullback, but still getting goal line love. Drew and Pearman will likely spell Fred for third downs, but that will keep him fresh and minimize injury risk.
Greg Jones Projections
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