Marc Levin's Thoughts

Rudi Johnson has emerged as one of the most consistent RBs in both fantasy production and overall statistics. In 2005, he rushed for at least 80 yards in 11 games, he scored at least 1 touchdown in 8 games, and he had 4 games with more than 100 yards. Johnson was in the top-10 fantasy RBs in 2004 and 2005. As the team's workhorse back, Johnson produced over 1400 rush yards each of the last two seasons. The only drawback to his game is that he is not consistently used in the passing game. The team targeted RB Chris Perry 62 times in 2005, and Perry caught 82% of those targets for 51 receptions and a respectable 328 yards. Perry, however, is nursing an ankle injury that has landed him on the PUP list. Johnson will not be challenged for his role as the team's primary ball carrier.

Moreover, he is surrounded by all the elements necessary for another solid year. He runs behind one of the best offensive lines (OL) in the NFL. The unit returns intact in 2006 and the continuity of the OL can not be underrated in determining whether Johnson is likely to maintain his previous success. In fact, there is every reason to expect improvement in some of Johnson's numbers - such as yards per carry (YPC) - if the OL remains healthy.

The Bengals present a balanced attack. A potent passing game prevents defenses from keying exclusively on Johnson. QB Carson Palmer's recovery from a devastating knee injury in the 2005 playoffs will be crucial to Johnson's continued success. If Palmer is ineffective or slowed by the injury, the team will likely struggle to pass the ball, and defenses will be able to load eight men in the box against Johnson. Even if Palmer struggles, however, the Bengals have three solid wide receivers who can spread the field and Pro Bowl WR Chad Johnson commands double coverage on almost every play regardless of who is throwing the ball. By all accounts, Palmer's recovery is going very well, so concerns about the passing game are minimal.

HC Marvin Lewis is committed to the run, and Johnson receives a large percentage of the team's rush attempts. He has 77.9% of the team's 896 rush attempts the last two years. Of course, that kind of workload carries some risk of Johnson breaking down. His knee maintenance in the off season is possibly evidence of the wear and tear of so many carries. That said, training camp reports indicate Johnson is completely healthy heading into the 2006 season. At 5'10" and 225 pounds, Johnson is built to take the pounding, and he plays through pain. He believes he tore cartilage in the second game of the 2005 season, yet he carried the ball 337 times last year and played in every game.

In fantasy terms, while it is difficult to see Johnson significantly outperforming his current average draft position (ADP), it is just as difficult to see him failing to warrant his ADP. He is currently the 11th overall player and RB11, which means he is most often drafted right before owners begin considering taking a top WR instead of an RB. Of the 10 RBs ahead of him, several have questions regarding durability, some have new offensive schemes or new head coaches, and one (Edgerrin James) has a new team. After the first few elite RBs are gone, Rudi Johnson is probably the safest RB1 on the board.

His lack of receptions is certainly a reason to downgrade him in pass per reception (PPR) leagues, but pairing him with a top-flight WR alleviates that concern. In leagues that do not reward RBs for receptions, the consistency of Johnson's fantasy numbers is a tremendous asset. Backing up Johnson with another dependable RB in the second round, or drafting a top-flight WR after taking Johnson late in the first, can be the start of a championship stable of core players. Johnson is unlikely to breach the top-5 fantasy RBs in 2006 (unless he gets more than 16 TDs and at least 1500 rush yards), so his upside is limited. But his owners can count on a top-10 fantasy finish and, more importantly, top-10 fantasy numbers just about every week.

Positives

• Workhorse back who rarely misses time due to injury and who receives a large portion of the team's rush attempts
• Consistent fantasy scorer both in yardage and TDs
• Plays on a powerhouse offense featuring a passing game that prevents defenses from loading up against the run
• Bengals' offensive line is one of the top units in the league

Negatives

• Will not provide any receiving numbers of note, which makes him a one-dimensional fantasy scorer
• If Palmer struggles or has a setback in his return from injury, defenses could load up on Johnson
• He is not likely to jump into the top-5 for fantasy RBs unless he scores a lot more TDs than expected

Final Thoughts

In performance scoring leagues without PPR for RBs, Johnson is the safest RB1 you can take after the top four or five are gone. In PPR leagues, Johnson is a consistent scoring RB who should be paired with a top-notch WR to compensate for his lack of receptions. With an ADP of the 11th overall player, he is often the last RB taken before owners look to draft their WR1. That is the perfect position for Johnson. He is consistent enough that an owner can risk an RB-WR opener, and he scores enough points to be a reliable RB1. He may not single-handedly win you many fantasy week, but he will rarely fall short of his expected fantasy output.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Rev:
Rudi is kind of like the hedgehog of the animal kingdom. While quicker, sexier, and more stylish animals speed by in spectacular array, Rudi just keeps rumbling and bumbling to fantasy success. His value may be somewhat compromised in PPR leagues due to his modest participation in the passing game, but his physical durability, his nose for the endzone, and his consistent production make him a clear top ten RB. Also, the Bengels have demonstrated that Chris Perry can be used meaningfully without diminishing Rudi's touches, something that cannot be said for the backups of many feature RB's. Finally, with Palmer wavering early in the season, the Bengels will look to Rudi more than ever.

Evilgrin 72:
Rudi is like a metronome. Chris Perry will continue to be used as a receiving back as long as Johnson continues his tough running, and the Bengals have the O-line for him to succeed. As Palmer appears to be in line to go week 1, I see little to no change in his circumstances. He seems an easy guy to project. In PPR leagues, or leagues that reward receiving yardage heavily, he doesn't have the upside of a Westbrook or Lamont Jordan. However, in a TD-heavy league, he's about as safe a pick as it gets, and should be gone in the first 8-9 selections.

Musesboy:
Johnson has reportedly slimmed down this summer and is currently 218 pounds. He has been working on his conditioning and endurance in case he is required to carry more of the load than usual due to the uncertain status of QB Carson Palmer. Johnson has also had cartilage repaired in the injured knee, and is now back to full strength.

Some will worry about the presence of Chris Perry, but I consider it a bonus. Johnson is not a receiving threat and Perry will see most of the action on third down. If something does happen to Johnson, Perry looks to be an above average backup that can be had relatively cheaply as a handcuff. Perry is currently being drafted in the tenth round in 12 team leagues.

Keg:
Say hello to the new Tiki Barber, well sorta. Rudi seems to be overlooked by many and for the past two seasons has outperformed his ADP. There will be people that point to his lack of involvement in the passing game to justify giving him a lower ranking. I will supply Rudi's points scored in a PPR league to prove that even in a PPR league Rudi is a top 5-7 RB.

Rudi Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Marc Levin	341	1501	14	21	85	0
Message Board Consensus	342	1439	13	20	110	1