Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's with a heavy heart I write this Spotlight. A season ago, knowing that I may end up with Priest Holmes with the 5th overall pick in my most competitive league, I opened up a pre-draft discussion with some of my fellow Footballguys. Universally, they told me to be sure I handcuffed Holmes with Larry Johnson. Yet, rather than bow to the combined brilliance of my fellow FBGs, I instead took that as a challenge to rail against the absurdity of "hand cuffing."

OOPS.

Halfway through the season I was in solid position to make the playoffs despite getting next to nothing from Priest Holmes. Yet, by the end of the season, I ended up 5th (the top 4 make the playoffs) thanks to, you guessed it, being leap frogged by the league mate who had Larry Johnson. If that wasn't bad enough, he ended up winning our Super Bowl.

OOPS and OOPS.

So before we dig deeper into Larry Johnson's 2006 outlook, let me formally declare...Hand cuffing is NOT a bad thing in certain situations.

OK, whew...now I feel better.

Larry Johnson's final nine games of 2005 were the stuff of legend:

• 9 consecutive 100-yard games
• 16 rushing touchdowns
• 5.2 yards per rush
• 1351 rushing yards
• 27 receptions
• 276 receiving yards
• 10.2 yards per reception
• 1 rec TD
• RB1 (and then some)

This year, it's not a question of whether LJ is going to be a fantasy stud, it's a question of whether he's going to push for a historical fantasy take. If you pro rate Johnson's final nine week over a full season, it equates to:

• 464 rushes
• 2,402 rushing yards
• 28 rush TDs
• 48 receptions
• 491 receiving yards
• 2 rec TDs

Now you and I both know Johnson isn't going to hit those numbers. No NFL RB has ever had more than 410 carries in a season, and Eric Dickerson is the only back to ever eclipse 2,100 yards, much less 2,400. But Johnson doesn't need to approach those numbers to justify the top fantasy draft choice. He's, at worst, among the top three with Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson simply because his downside is arguably higher than some other top-10 backs upside. 

If I'm getting ready to draft Johnson, the following things make me happy:

1) New HC Herm Edwards loves a power rushing game and won't hesitate to run LJ early and often. Just two seasons ago, Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing playing for Edwards

2) New OC Mike Solari is a proponent of the power rushing game. He's been the architect of the Chiefs fantastic offensive line the last few years and won't hesitate to pound LJ in his new role as the Chiefs' play-caller

3) The Chiefs offensive line returns intact; which means LJ gets to run behind two potential Hall of Famers and four Pro Bowlers

4) The defense should be better this year. Say what you will about Edwards in-game management, but you can be sure he'll put his stamp on this defense. Why is that a positive for LJ? Because it should lead to more opportunities for LJ and his backups to run the clock out; Edwards is proponent of extending time of possession

If I'm getting ready to draft Johnson, the following things make me think twice:

1) Willie Roaf has announced plans to retire. If he's being honest, this is a major blow to the Chiefs offensive line and is cause enough to bump LJ down behind Tomlinson and Alexander. Roaf has been the rock of that line for years, and remains one of the NFL's best left tackles despite his advancing age. Before you completely downgrade LJ though, consider that Roaf could very well be posturing to avoid training camp. He "retired' but hasn't filed the paperwork with the league office. Until he does, I am of the opinion he'll be in the Chiefs starting lineup in Week One.

2) Herm Edwards is VERY conservative and that could stymie the Chiefs potent offense. LJ will get his rushes, but if Edwards fails to let the passing game take shots downfield, that could stifle drives and in turn limit LJ's chances in the red zone.

3) New OC Mike Solari is no Al Saunders. Solari isn't going to change the offensive playbook, but he's never called NFL plays before so it's silly to think the Chiefs will run as smoothly as when Saunders, one of the league's best OCs, was at the helm.

4) The schedule looks difficult. According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Chiefs face the 3rd most difficult schedule against the run. That shouldn't be an issue given LJ's talents, but it could keep him from being worthy of the top spot, particularly if Roaf stays retired.

Thinking out loud...is this talk of 2,000+ yards utter nonsense?

While I was doing a radio show last week, the host Marc Eisenberg said to me:

Larry Johnson ran for 2,000 yards in his senior year in high school
Larry Johnson ran for 2,000 yards in his senior season at Penn State
Larry Johnson is entering his fourth season in the NFL...

Interesting observation but I'm going to vote "no." It's simply too hard to predict that type of performance. However, the mere fact it's worth discussing is evidence enough that LJ deserves to be, at worst, one of the first three players drafted in any redraft league.

Positives

• Johnson was phenomenal once given the starting job last year, if he and his offensive line stay healthy, he's a legitimate shot to push for 2,000 yards rushing
• Johnson shows great patience, particularly in short yardage and goal line situations
• New HC Herm Edwards is a proponent of heavy running game; witness Curtis Martin's success under Edwards while both were Jets

Negatives

• Willie Roaf has announced plans to retire; if he's not posturing this could seriously derail the entire offense
• Edwards' teams have had a tendency to play conservatively, limiting their red zone appearances
• He went to Penn State

Final Thoughts

If Willie Roaf is retired, Larry Johnson should be the 3rd pick and no worse. Folks, don't over think things. He was unstoppable, literally unstoppable last season even though teams tried to key on him late in the year. This season, with new HC Herm Edwards in charge, you can be sure that he'll want to run the ball even more frequently than Dick Vermeil would've. As long as the Chiefs can get into the red zone, LJ is going to be an elite fantasy back. If Willie Roaf comes out of retirement, Johnson should probably be the first overall pick in standard redraft leagues. He's that good.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

David Yudkin (FBG Staff):
I am reluctant to ever project any RB much beyond 1500/500/20, as that rarely happens in the big scheme of things. While I would refrain from projecting him at 2,500 total yards and 30 TD, I would not be shocked to see him get it. LJ had almost 2100 with 21 TD in a partial season last year. Johnson and Holmes combined for 2741 total yards and 28 TD, so the offense can support uber RB production.

The problem still remains, projecting Johnson at more than 400 touches is almost impossible to do. Assuming Johnson produces at the same rate as last year, 400 touches would get Johnson 363 fantasy points. Last year, Alexander scored 364 fantasy points.

If you asked which RB would be more likely to get to that level this year (LJ or SA), I would say Johnson. (IMO LT does not even merit consideration in the debate as to who to take #1 overall in a 0 PPR redraft league).

modus:
I see LJ getting close to 400+ carries with Herm Edwards as the coach. He's not known as a coach that will open up the offense when he gets a 10+ point lead. He runs the ball and he always has run the ball.

Another thing to consider is LJ's touches are a little different than a McGahee, Julius Jones, or Portis carry. A large percentage of LJ's carries are taken to the second level, which means he's taking on the secondary and speedy LBs. He's not a pure run between the tackles back just because of the talent of his offense line, so he can avoid taking on run stoppers run after run. He won't take the beating a normal back will endure with an average line.

Sigfawn:
Myth #1

LJ hasn't shown he can carry the load.

Last year, he carried the ball MORE then the following RBs

Willis McGahee
Thomas Jones
Reuben Droughns
'Cadillac' Williams **
Warrick Dunn
LaMont Jordan
Jamal Lewis
Julius Jones **
Willie Parker
Steven Jackson **
Mike Anderson
Domanick Davis **
Chris Brown
Curtis Martin
Corey Dillon **
Ronnie Brown
DeShaun Foster **
Fred Taylor **
Kevin Jones **

** All had LESS carries, and missed significant time due to injury in 2005

Larry Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	340	1600	16	35	315	1
Message Board Consensus	360	1756	21	43	388	3