Jason Wood's Thoughts

Chad Johnson is a bona fide fantasy stud, and could easily be this year's top fantasy pass catcher. Yes, he's got some potentially stiff competition for the top spot, but can you honestly say any of the other contenders are demonstrably better than Johnson?

Steve Smith -- Smith's 2005 season was one for the ages, but Johnson is taller, has a better QB (if Palmer is healthy), and doesn't have the injury history Smith does. Meanwhile Smith is already nursing an injury that will keep him out of camp.

Terrell Owens -- Owens is a force, this much is true. But he's changing teams again, is playing in a non-WCO for the first time in his career, and is one false move of blown gasket away from being in Bill Parcells dog house. He's already missed time in camp with a hamstring injury to boot.

Torry Holt -- Holt is consistent and an all-around stud. But he's got to adjust to a new offensive system, one that isn't going to be as pass crazy as Mike Martz' was. Holt is also coming off an injury; one that could be chronic.

Randy Moss -- The man who just a few years ago seemed a legitimate threat to challenge Jerry Rice's career records at some point has fallen on hard(er) times. Last year he failed to break the 1,000-yard mark and now, snicker snicker, has to deal with the inconsistent Aaron Brooks at QB and Tom Walsh, yes, TOM WALSH, calling the plays.

Marvin Harrison -- Marvin has put together the most impressive body of work among today's elite receivers; and will be a stud as long as he's healthy and Peyton Manning is under center. But at 34 years old and given his size, Harrison isn't in his prime any longer. Harrison is also coming off elbow surgery.

Meanwhile, Chad Johnson is in his prime (28 years old), has a perfect blend of size and speed, has shown the ability to make plays over the top of defenses or by running after the catch.

• 3rd in receiving yards (1st in AFC)
• 5th in receptions (1st in AFC)
• 9th in TDs
• 6th in targets
• 4th in 1st downs/reception target
• 10th in yards after the catch (336 yards)
• 5th in "big catches (12)
• 12th in catches inside the red zone (9)

And, despite his propensity for on-field celebrations, you can't tell me there's a more devoted student of the game. Johnson is known to sleep at the Bengals facility two or three times a week after studying film. He purchased an industrial-class film review system for his home. The guy is a an animal. As long as Carson Palmer plays the majority of the season (and early camp reports indicate that's a possibility), Johnson should be targeted in the second or third round of 10- and 12-team leagues.

Positives

• Johnson has the rare ability to beat defensive backs in a variety of ways; including out running them in the open field or getting by them deep when singled out
• If Carson Palmer is healthy, the Bengals have no weaknesses offensively; making it impossible for teams to consistently game plan against Johnson
• From a fantasy perspective, Johnson is consistent, whereby his "bad" games are good enough to keep you competitive

Negatives

• Carson Palmer can't be considered a sure bet until we see him on the field in the regular season; and either Anthony Wright or Doug Johnson would be a material step down
• With TJ Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry, Tab Perry and Antonio Chatman, the Bengals have plenty of other receiving options; and Rudi Johnson will get a ton of carries in and out of the red zone
• Johnson's never ending quest to express himself could result in disciplinary action if unchecked

Final Thoughts

This is another one of those situations you don't over think. Chad Johnson is one of the league's best receivers. He's been productive with or without a good sidekick, he's produced with and without Carson Palmer, and he's been productive with or without Marvin Lewis at the helm. He's finished no worse than ninth among fantasy wideouts over the last three seasons (4th last year) and can be counted on for WR1 production yet again, at a minimum.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Bankerguy:
I am in total agreement about the consistency comment for CJ. You know what you are going to get. With that said...the only X-factor is the health of Palmer. Any set backs with the knee or new injuries could really hurt CJ. The back up QBs for Cincy leave a little bit to be desired. For Chad's sake he is hoping Palmer stays healthy.

Bizkiteer:
The best part is Wright locks into his favorite guy, as he did w/ Marcus Robinson, Heap and D.Mason. Thus, he should not be hurt too bad if Palmer is out for a game or two. I did mark down the yardage ever so slightly due to Palmer being out for the first few games. I think he turns a few more long plays into TDs and becomes more a red zone threat, so I increased his TDs ever so slightly too.

Musesboy:
Johnson is a big part of the Bengals' offense and he typically sees around 10 targets per game. He will be hoping that Palmer is ready for the start of the season, but recent reports suggest that Palmer is two months ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation and that he may even see action in a preseason game. The options behind Palmer are not particularly inspiring and any absence from him would hurt Johnson's value. Luckily, Palmer does not rely hugely on his mobility and is more of a pocket passer.

rzrback77:
I think that caution should be used by fantasy drafters and that it likely will be used by the Bengals' staff. They could choose to bring Palmer along more slowly than the media is reporting now. Carson Palmer himself, could choose to be patient, either by not starting from the get-go or in how he plays.

Chad Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	92	1380	12
Message Board Consensus	0	0	94	1373	10