Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Brad Johnson stepped into the starting role for the Vikings last season after Daunte Culpepper's catastrophic knee injury, and now he's the starting signal caller for the Vikings after an off-season of turmoil and house-cleaning by management. Johnson is no retread, though - he won a Super Bowl title with Tampa Bay back in 2002, and tossed 12 TDs vs only 4 interceptions during his abbreviated 2005 campaign with Minnesota. In fact, Johnson was more productive in his stint last season (184/294 for 1885 yards, 12 TDs and 4 interceptions) than Culpepper was in his opportunities (139/216 for 1564 yards, 6 TDs and 12 interceptions). As recently as 2003, Johnson passed for 3811 yards and 26 TDs (final full season in Tampa Bay), and he passed the 4000 yards passing mark back in 1999 while playing for the Redskins. Johnson is a crafty veteran with plenty of experience under his belt.

Johnson has completed passes at more than 62% during each of his last 4 seasons (his career completion percentage is 61.9%), hitting 62.6% of his throws last year in Minnesota. Johnson has 155 TDs and 102 interceptions to his credit during his 12 year career, and has tossed 519+ passes during the years that he played a full 16 game slate (2003, 2001, and 1999).

Positives

• Johnson has a fairly deep wide receiving corps to shag his darts, including a rejuvenated Koren Robinson and youngster Troy Williamson. Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson provide veteran leadership at the position - there is a nice mix of youth and maturity on the squad. TEs Jermaine Wiggins and Jim Kleinsasser are solid options as well - Johnson won't lack for targets to throw to during the 2006 season.
• Johnson is the unquestioned starter, with backups such as Mike McMahon and J.T. O'Sullivan populating the depth chart. Unless Johnson gets injured, he is secure in his #1 position.
• Johnson has been a top fantasy player at his position before (ranking in the top ten twice, during 1999 with Washington and in 2003 while a Buccaneer), and given the Viking's sub-par defense, he's likely to be throwing the ball a lot during the 2006 season. The situation in Minnesota looks to be favorable for Johnson to post some explosive outings during the coming campaign.

Negatives

• Johnson has only played out a full slate of games during his career 3 times - his fantasy owners will want to have a solid second option on their roster. His long career and relatively advanced age (he'll be 38 on September 13th) means that his body has absorbed a lot of punishment.
• The running back situation in Minnesota was supposed to be settled by the addition of Chester Taylor from Baltimore, but he is reportedly out of shape. If the RB stable doesn't improve over last year's sorry performance (3.9 yards per carry, ranking 16th in the league, while producing a paltry 1467 rushing yards (27th in the NFL)), Johnson may see a lot of pass pressure. In fact, only the Texans allowed more sacks last year (68 vs. the 54 that Minnesota surrendered). If Johnson is sacked 3+ times per game again during 2006 and absorbs a lot of additional hits due to poor pass blocking, his body will likely be strained past its ability to recover. No one is sure if C Matt Birk can come back from the multiple hip and hernia surgeries that sidelined him for all of 2005. The Vikings added LG Steve Hutchinson from Seattle this past off-season, but he is only one guy on a unit that struggled mightily during 2005. Several other offensive linemen (Artis Hicks, Ryan Cook, Jason Whittle) come to the team via free agency - it remains to be seen how well the new-look line will jell.
• The Vikings are entering a new era under head coach Brad Childress. While the team installs the new regime's offensive scheme, there is bound to be some hiccups and missteps along the way - the Vikings' offense could stumble out of the gates to begin 2006.

Final Thoughts

Brad Johnson has come full circle, returning to the team where his career began. It remains to be seen if he can close his career with a blaze of glory and productivity - there are several factors that are in his favor entering 2006, but also a good deal of uncertainty about how well his teammates will be able to support Johnson's efforts. On balance, he looks like a solid option for a fantasy rotation, but I'd hesitate to plug in Johnson as my main option at QB this year. He is a player who is more suitable for a fantasy owner with one or two other viable options at the position, to be started when the matchups are most favorable for Johnson.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Andy Dufresne:
I know one thing for sure. If Brad Johnson is the QB1 on your team, you waited too long. He should be a decent #2 though.

BlueOnion:
I expect the Vikings to play better defense and have a more conservative offense. Overall, I think Brad Johnson will be tasked with managing the offense and minimizing mistakes.

Brad Johnson Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Mark Wimer	3500	22	12	50	0
Message Board Consensus	3122	22	12	40	0