Jason Wood's Thoughts

Andre Johnson is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league.

He's 6'2", 221 pounds and runs a 4.45-forty. Coming out of the University of Miami, his supporters believed he could someday rival the Michael Irvin as the best NFL receiver to come from the 'Canes.

Despite playing for an offensively challenged Texans unit, his first two seasons did little to dissuade his supporters.

• 2003 -- 66 receptions, 976 yards, 4 TDs (WR23)
• 2004 -- 79 receptions, 1142 yards, 6 TDs (WR22)

Those numbers may not seem gaudy, but consider the Texans passing game (or lack thereof) during that period:

• 2003 -- 248 completions, 2841 yards, 14 TDs
• 2004 -- 286 completions, 3555 yards, 16 TDs

In his first two years, Johnson accounted for:

• 27.2% of the team's receptions
• 33.1% of the team's receiving yards
• 33.3% of the team's receiving TDs

Those numbers are right in line with the elite receivers in the league. The only thing holding back Johnson, it seemed, was David Carr's play and the overall productivity of the passing attack.

And then came last season...the Texans 2-14 season left no one unscathed, including Johnson; who had been projected as a top-12 fantasy receiver by many. 

• 2005 -- 63 receptions, 688 yards, 2 TDs (WR47)

There's no question those numbers were a disappointment, particularly for fantasy owners relying on Johnson to be not just good, but great. But don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, his 2005 production came with a few caveats.

1) He was injured -- Johnson only played in 12 games (he has a few snaps in a 13th) thanks to a badly strained calf, a minor knee injury and a late season elbow injury. When he was on the field, Johnson didn't have the usual explosiveness or cutting ability that made him such a productive open field guy in his first two years (he had admirable YAC numbers in his first two seasons).

2) The passing game regressed -- The Texans passing game took a step backward, as the team threw for only 2,661 yards and 15 touchdowns.

3) He was blanketed -- Texans defenders figured out that no one, and we mean NO ONE on the Texans was a threat in the receiving game beyond Andre Johnson. Sure, Dom Davis catches a lot of passes for a running back, but the defense had no one to fear downfield beyond Johnson, and he was routinely schemed out of the game plan.

Looking ahead to 2006, there are plenty of reasons for optimism:

1) The Gary Kubiak Era begins -- Gary Kubiak takes over and brings instant credibility to the offensive system. He was Mike Shanahan's right hand man in Denver throughout Shanny's tenure and has impeccable credentials. He and his OC Troy Calhoun would be sure bets to improve the Texans offensive output by themselves, absent of any personnel improvements.

2) But the Texans did improve offensively -- Yes, for the first time in Andre Johnson's career he has an able-bodied veteran lining up on the other side of the field. Eric Moulds brings his 675 career receptions to Houston and will make it impossible for defenses to scheme against AJ down in, down out. The nice thing about Moulds is he's a true WR2 at this point in his career; he will help offset the pressure Johnson faces but he won't steal his thunder. Moulds' YPC has dropped for seven consecutive seasons and simply isn't the physical player he once was.

3) The offensive line should also be in the upswing -- David Carr has been sacked more times than anyone in the history of mankind. Well, not exactly, but it's not far off. If the offensive line improves, that means Carr's play improves; which in turn means a lot better numbers for Andre Johnson; his best and most targeted receiver. Not only is Gary Kubiak going to help the line play, the Texans hired Mike Sherman as a special consultant. Sherman's primary focus prior to becoming the Packers head coach was offensive lines. Between those two guys, you can be sure the O-line will be more disciplined and effective. But the team also improved the personnel, adding Eric Winston and Charles Spencer via the draft, as well as proven center Mike Flanagan (via Green Bay). This unit can't be worse than it's been; and my bet is it gets a LOT better.

4) The schedule is quite favorable -- According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Texans WRs have one of the five easiest schedules, including advantageous matchups in Weeks 14-16.

5) The defense should struggle again -- A poor defense assures plenty of passing attempts as Houston tries to stay in games and/or play catch up. The Texans bolstered the defense with Mario Williams, Anthony Weaver and DeMeco Ryans but this unit is young and is going to take time to jell; particularly moving to a 4-3 front.

6) Johnson is healthy -- 'nuff said...when healthy the kid averaged 14.6 yards per reception and a TD per 14.5 receptions. And that was playing in Chris Palmer's offense.

Any way you slice it, Andre Johnson is going to produce this year. If the Texans only improve 20% across the board in their passing totals; which would equate to:

• 324 completions
• 3200 yards
• 18 TDs

If Johnson merely maintains the same percentage of the team's production he had in Years 1-2, AJ is looking at:

• 88 receptions
• 1060 yards
• 6 TDs

Those aren't Earth-shattering numbers, but they're also closer to the downside of his potential than the upside. Kubiak could really turn this offense around in a hurry, and that would mean the sky's the limit for AJ.

Positives

• Johnson has few physical equals at the position, and showed enough in his first two seasons to think he could make a few Pro Bowls under the right circumstances
• Gary Kubiak and his coaching staff will change the tenor of the offense, in a hurry
• The schedule appears favorable, and Eric Moulds should keep AJ from being constantly double teamed this season

Negatives

• Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Texans probably face more than a one-year reconstruction
• Johnson has a tendency to lose focus and drop catchable balls at times
• Despite his size, Johnson succumbed to several nagging injuries last year; he must become more resilient

Final Thoughts

Whether or not you think AJ is a talented player (he is) or bound to improve this year (he will), I'm not sure he's a compelling option on draft day at his current ADP. I currently project him at WR23 (74 recs, 1035 yards, 6 TDs) yet his ADP = WR18. If I'm right, he's slightly overvalued. That said, given his age and considerable upside, I would be willing to pull the trigger on him versus a more staid veteran with a similar ADP. If you think my numbers are conservative, AJ has the talent to be one of this year's fantasy surprises. If you're think my projections are in line with reality, hope he falls a round or two past projected ADP and then give him some consideration.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

nygiants56:
After being a perennial tease, AJ might be primed for the breakout season everyone envisioned happening last year...if he was any other NFL player I wouldn't even consider drafting him, but with AJ's potential, I think you stay with him one more year...let's see what this new coaching staff does for the Texans offense.

Winning IS Everything:
I think Andre is an amazing talent and will be great in time, but this will be the first year in a totally new system. Too many things are changing to make this offense explosive overnight. I see an increase in production over last year but not a massive jump.

losgalacticos:
His good games have been tremendous. The problem is three things must improve -- his play, the line's play, and Carr's play. The good news is that they all probably will. I have read that Carr is the most improved player in [mini camp]. The coaches are high on Wand at LT. If they get it together, I see them being a passing team with Moulds taking some attention, and the RBs being only adequate.

Andre Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	74	1035	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	80	1177	7