Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

I have tried to understand the infatuation with the Atlanta wide receivers, but I just cannot. I’ve looked at the talent at wide receiver and quarterback, the Falcon’s offensive philosophy, and the past history of the team. I cannot see how anyone can be enamored with any receiver wearing a Falcons’ jersey this season, but let’s take a look at what I discovered.

The leading wide receiver tandem for the Falcons this season entering training camp is the duo of Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Jenkins is entering his third season after being drafted in the first round with the 27th overall pick. After doing little as a rookie (7-119-0), Jenkins produced mediocre numbers in his sophomore season. He collected just 36 of 71 targets, barely over 50%, for 508 yards and three touchdowns in 2005. This effort put him as just the 60th ranked fantasy receiver last season.

Roddy White was also a first rounder; he was picked with the 29th overall selection in the 2005 draft. His rookie season was productive, as he caught 28 passes for 446 yards and 3 scores, ranking him 64th among fantasy receivers. One issue with this production was his catch-to-target ratio. White was targeted 68 times and caught under 50% of the balls thrown in his direction. The third option is Brian Finneran, a journeyman wide receiver. While he is projected as the #3 WR for Atlanta in 2006, he deserves special mentions and consideration as he was the leading Falcon wide receiver last year. Finneran was targeted 81 times and caught 50 passes, both of which were the best of any Falcon wideout.

So why don’t I love the Falcons’ receivers? Four main reasons:

1. Atlanta is a run-first team
2. Michael Vick is the quarterback
3. Alge Crumpler is on the roster
4. The Fear Factor

The first point is that the Atlanta Falcons are a rushing team – plain and simple. They have led the NFL in rushing each of the past two seasons, and for good reason. They have the best running quarterback in the league with Michael Vick, and adding Warrick Dunn’s 1,000+ yards and contributions from T.J. Duckett gives the Falcons a formidable ground game. With the success of the offense overall and a competitive franchise, I do not foresee much change in the offensive recipe.

The second item is the quarterback – namely one Michael Vick. Vick loves to run, and when he doesn’t, he targets his two main safety valves in TE Alge Crumpler and RB Warrick Dunn. Whether it is Vick’s predisposition for short passes or his lack of confidence in his receivers, Vick rarely looks beyond 10-15 yards downfield and that is the realm of Crumpler and Dunn. Vick also rarely puts up a big passing game – he has broken the 200-yard passing mark just 13 times in 51 career starts – and broken the 300-yard line just twice.

So that brings me to my third point – TE Alge Crumpler. “Crump” is one of the most underrated tight ends in the NFL. He has increased his reception total four years in a row, and he has ranked as a Top 8 fantasy TE the last four seasons. He was the leading target for Atlanta in 2005, and he delivered the goods as he caught 65 balls for 877 yards and five touchdowns – all team bests. How can the receivers compete with this talent?

My final point is what I call the “Fear Factor”. Do the names Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, or Brian Finneran strike fear in the hearts of the opposing cornerbacks, safeties or defensive coordinators? Do coaches wake up in the middle of the night with a jolt knowing that they have to come up with a scheme to stop one of these guys? I think you know the answer. Not one of these three wideouts are mentioned along with Steve Smith, Chad Johnson or Terrell Owens, and rightfully so. I cannot foresee any of them - even Roddy White whom many think has the brightest future - posting 90 catches, 1,000+ yards or double-digit touchdowns in a season.

Positives

• The offense in Atlanta is productive, with a strong run defense to support the growth of a passing attack
• Michael Vick still wants to prove to his critics that he can produce results with his arm rather than his legs
• Roddy White posted decent numbers as a rookie and has the potential to build upon his first season

Negatives

• Atlanta loves to run the ball, leading the league for the last two seasons in rushing offense
• Michael Vick has thrown for 200 yards or more in less than 30% of his career starts
• Alge Crumpler gets the majority of the work as a pass catcher for the Falcons
• Neither Roddy White nor Michael Jenkins have shown that increased targets would lead to Top 24 WR seasons

Final Thoughts

Despite trying to keep an open mind on the topic, I do not see a shred of evidence that either Roddy White or Michael Jenkins will put up a 1,000+ yard or 10+ TD season in 2006. The team favors the run, as does the quarterback and both receivers have historically caught fewer than 55% of their targets. I do believe that Roddy White has more upside than Jenkins, and I project him to have a better season in yards and catches as a result. However, I also acknowledge that most of the scoring is done by the running backs, Michael Vick, or Alge Crumpler. It is hard to imagine the Falcons with 10 collective touchdowns to all of the wide receivers, let alone one.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Thurman:
The Falcons WRs can't really be that great with Vick throwing to them. Vick isn't a good passer and when he does he radar locks onto Alge Crumpler. Not to mention that both the projected starters (White and Jenkins) are still very young. Typically young WR's don't do that great. Coupled with Vick's inadequacies at throwing and there is a ceiling on how well these two can do. Brian Finneran is still going to see plenty of time as well, and take some playing time away from these guys.

Winning IS Everything:
I think that Michael Jenkins will fill the redzone threat and short yardage role, while Roddy White will generally be the possession and between the 20's guy. Brian Finneran will continue to be a pivotal performer in three WR sets and off the bench. I think that Roddy White will lead the WR in receptions and yards, and Jenkins will lead in TDs.

TS Garp:
I like the fact that White's targets doubled over the second half of the season, and really spiked in the last three or four games. Vick seemed to start trusting him a bit more, and I'm optimistic that we'll see some of that carry over into this season. He's still young and learning, and not in the ideal situation for a WR to be sure, but I think he'll build on last season's numbers.

Michael Jenkins Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jeff Pasquino	0	0	48	620	3
Message Board Consensus	0	0	49	669	5