Jason Wood's Thoughts

There are few certainties in the world, particularly in the National Football League. In evaluating Edgerrin James, there are two certainties. One, he’s been an elite running back for much of his career. Two, his situation has changed dramatically and almost certainly for the worse in 2006.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of Edgerrin James and think he’s a viable fantasy starter this year. But he fits squarely into a group of players who have too much downside risk for my tastes. In projecting James, I had a hard time not slotting him inside the top 10 at his position. After all, he’s his 2nd consecutive 1,500-yard rushing season, scored 13 rushing TDs (for the 3rd time in his career) and threw in another 337 yards receiving. He’s a 4-time Pro Bowler who already has 9,226 yards rushing (20th all time) despite being just 28 years old. The guy is a stud.

But here’s the thing. After the Indianapolis Colts found ways to sign all their offensive cogs the last few years, they didn’t put up much of a fight in letting their premier running back leave for Arizona. James was bowled over by a big offer to become Dennis Green’s new offensive centerpiece, and he’ll be trying to bring respectability to the Cardinals ground attack after years of futility.

Chronicling the Cardinals Futile Rushing Attack…

• In 2005, the Cardinals ranked dead last in rushing attempts (360), yards (1,138), yards per attempt (3.16) and touchdowns (2)
• The Cardinals leading rusher of the last five years? Marcel Shipp with 2,115 rushing yards in FOUR seasons. He’s got a whopping six touchdowns over that span, and averaged less than 3.7 yards per rush
• The Cardinals haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since the 1998 season (Adrian Murrell – 1,042 yards)

The Cardinals will stay committed to the run this year. The Cardinals virtually abandoned the run last year, throwing an astounding 670 times. That kind of imbalance won’t win a lot of games, regardless of how many weapons the team has in the passing game. With James coming aboard, we can be sure the Cardinals won’t abandon the run as they did last year. Don’t forget, Dennis Green ran the ball 475 times in 2004 (11th in the NFL); James will get his touches.

But will his yards-per-rush suffer? For his career, James has averaged 4.2 yards per carry; good, but not great. Joining a team that was a league worst 3.16 yards per rush; James could easily be facing his worst rushing average of his career. In 2002, James averaged a meager 3.6 yards per rush in an injury-riddled campaign. That should be viewed as the low water mark in projecting James in 2005. Given his improved health and the strength of the Cardinals passing attack (which will keep defenses from stacking the box), the logical projection would be somewhere between his career worst and his career average; something akin to 3.8-4.0 yards per carry.

It’s all about the offensive line. The Cardinals passing game will be productive; we know that. Kurt Warner was signed to an extension and Matt Leinart fell into their laps on draft day. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are arguably the best WR duo in the NFL. But that offensive line needs to improve by leaps and bounds if James is going to deliver on expectations. Leonard Davis remains at left tackle, while Oliver Ross (disappointing as a free agent addition last year) is at right tackle. The interior of the line may see some shuffling as free agent Milford Brown (Texans) and mauling USC Trojan Deuce Lutui in the mix. Although not really an offensive lineman, rookie TE Leonard Pope (6’7” from Georgia) should impact the run-blocking, too. It’s way too early to say whether the offensive line changes will have a material impact; but the addition of new OL coach Steve Loney leads me to believe moderate improvement should be expected, at a minimum.

Positives

• James is the complete package; with power to break tackles and patience and speed to gain yardage in chunks. He’s an adept red zone rusher and one of the better receiving backs in the league.
• The Cardinals invested a ton of money in James and Dennis Green is committed to the running attack; after having to abandon the run in 2005. James will get a ton of carries; that’s without question.
• The passing game is in good shape and opposing defenses won’t be able to stack the line against James; much as they couldn’t while he was playing with the Colts.

Negatives

• The Cardinals redefined ineptitude last year running the ball and yet, very little has changed along the offensive line. If Deuce Lutui isn’t a difference maker immediately, James could easily suffer a material drop off in his average yards per rush
• While there’s no question James is extremely talented, one has to wonder how much the Colts offensive system contributed to his success. James must acclimate to a new system, new blocking schemes, and an entirely new offensive supporting cast which adds considerable risk to projecting his 2006 output
• James' ADP may be too high to offset the risks of changing teams

Final Thoughts

I’ve run through my projections and simply can’t put James outside the top 10. Looking at Denis Green’s coaching history, it’s clear that the 2005 season was an anomaly and the decision to sign James to a big free agent contract proves that they will stay committed to running the ball. In other words, James will get 300+ carries if he’s healthy; it’s just that his production per carry may suffer. Even if James runs for less than 4.0 yards per carry in 2006, his workload and the assumption of 40-50 receptions and 8-10 touchdowns is enough to warrant consideration as a first round pick in 10- and 12-team redrafts. But, to be frank, I probably wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting James as my top runner and would only consider him in the mid- to late 2nd round; where it’s more likely the risks balance out against the projected rewards.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

perry147:
I think the Edge will struggle in Arizona this year and not have the type year people seem to think. I watched Arizona last year and noticed that the RBs were hit before reaching the line of scrimmage more than any team I saw except maybe San Fran.

Wade:
With a career yards per carry of 4.2 (on 2188 carries) and 8 yards per catch (on 356 receptions), James definitely has the skill to take advantage of every touch he gets in the Cardinal offense. With 14 total touchdowns last year in Indianapolis, he returned to the productivity he enjoyed during his first two seasons in the NFL, showing he still has what it takes to be a top fantasy RB.

TheFanatic:
I recall another pass catching RB doing extremely well with Kurt Warner at the helm. Lots of penetration at the line? Time for a screen pass to the house for Edge....Warner may have the gun to throw it deep every play but he makes extremely quick reads and if the 3rd read is an open Edge underneath then Warner is going to take advantage of that.

CalBear:
The last Arizona back to have more than 275 carries was Garrison Hearst. Under Denny Green in Arizona, no back has had more than 35 receptions--Arrington, Shipp, and Ayanbadejo split 94 receptions in 2005, and all those guys are still on the roster at this point. And in Minnesota, the featured back never had 40 receptions after Green's first year as a coach (1992); Amp Lee was used extensively as a receiving back. So I think you have to knock Edge's carries and receptions down from his Indianapolis levels, as well as his yards per rush and reception.

Edgerrin James Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	315	1240	10	40	290	1
Message Board Consensus	315	1234	9	46	370	1