Mike Brown's Thoughts

The best player whose name you can’t spell has been slowly creeping up on top-10 status ever since entering the league, and this year will be trying to bang down the door. He would have likely reached the milestone a year ago had it not been for separate hand and foot injuries sustained during the season.

The man they call “Hoosh” had something of a coming-out party a year ago, compiling 956 yards and 7 TD in just fourteen games, en route to the WR14 ranking for the season. He demonstrated a knack for not only getting open, but for making the play once the ball headed his way. Of the 108 passes thrown in his direction in 2005, 75 of them resulted in a reception for a percentage of 69.4%, far and away the highest percentage in the league.

He developed a terrific rapport with QB Carson Palmer, and stepped out of Chad Johnson’s rather large shadow to establish a name for himself. So is Houshmandzadeh primed to take the next step toward becoming a top NFL wideout? Or was last year the peak of his talent, seeing everything go right both for himself and the team?

Positives

• His receptions and touchdowns have increased in each of his first four seasons. He has set his goals even higher this season, mentioning a desire for 1,200 yards and 90 receptions as a benchmark. While those are likely a bit out of reach, it’s nice to see a player not resting on his laurels and instead seeking to constantly improve.
• He didn’t compile his statistics over one or two huge games surrounded by clunkers. He was a consistent producer all season, and had at least 50 yards receiving or a touchdown in 12 of his 14 games. Which brings up another point. Houshmandzadeh compiled his #14 ranking in just 14 games. Among players who played at least eight games, Houshmandzadeh ranked 11th on a points per game basis.
• A recent ESPN study named Houshmandzadeh as having the best hands of any receiver in the NFL. While it’s not exact science, it does demonstrate just how good Houshmandzadeh is at getting the balls that are thrown to him. This goes a long way toward Carson Palmer’s faith in him.
• All signs point toward Palmer’s rehab going well, and he is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. This bodes well for the entire Cincinnati offense.

Negatives

• Despite WR1-type stats, Houshmandzadeh’s talent level is still just that of a #2. The former 7th round pick may have limited upside, and might not be able to be a go-to guy if Chad Johnson wasn’t around to take so much pressure off.
• QB Carson Palmer’s rehab has gone extremely well and he is expected to be ready for the preseason. Still, there are never any guarantees with knee injuries. And if Palmer is unable to go at any point, the Bengals offense is Anthony Wright’s show.
• Houshmandzadeh suffered something of a meltdown against Pittsburgh in the playoff loss (apparently all of the Bengal receivers got a bad pregame meal that day). Houshmandzadeh needs to keep his emotions in check. There has been positive news regarding that aspect of his game, but one never knows – the Cincinnati locker room is a bit of a powder keg at times.

Final Thoughts

Aside from being one of the league’s finest #2 wide receivers, everything appears to be in line for Houshmandzadeh to graduate from “nice” fantasy player or part-time fill-in to full-fledged fantasy star. One cannot base a draft strategy on the fallacy of automatic improvement (that is, Player X improved each season so far by Y amount, so we’ll naturally assume a similar upgrade this year), but it certainly is within reason that Houshmandzadeh could improve upon his stats for a fifth season.

Consider that RB Chris Perry (an excellent receiver) is still recovering from off-season knee surgery and Cincinnati’s #3 wide receiver, Chris Henry, was arrested twice in the time you’ve spent reading this article, and you can see why Houshmandzadeh will have an opportunity to surpass last season’s totals. There will be just as many footballs to go around, yet there will likely be fewer talented, proven commodities to throw it to.

At worst, “Hoosh” should be able to compile statistics similar to those he put up a year ago. And at best? Well, at best you’re adding a borderline WR1 for the cost of a WR2. It is my belief that when all’s said and done for the 2006 season, fantasy owners who win their leagues will be able to thank it in large part to the selection of Houshmandzadeh at some point in their drafts.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

mlball77:
I think the odds are good that Palmer may miss a couple/few games or may be rushed back and not perform quite at the level we've come to expect from him based on the last year and a half. Only because of this, I see TJ's numbers dropping oh so slightly... though he'll be solid once again in 06, IMO.

Gatorman:
I for one, don't see last year from Hoosh as a surprise. He looked real good the year before and seemed to be hitting his stride at the end of 2004. Anyhow, I think that if you like chad you need to like Hoosh.

However, I am one who is a little afraid of both Bengal WRs due to the uncertainty of Carson Palmer. Especially in leagues like WCOFF where the first 10 weeks matter more than the last 6, I would avoid all skill position players on their team unless I see great value. For a league where I am sure that I will be in the playoff hunt, drafting one of those guys as a "difference maker" in the playoffs is a sound strategy.

Splat:
One important thing to note is that in 2005, TJ missed 2 games thanks to injury (14 games played, 12 started) . So even though Chad got more receptions than 2004, and Chris Henry came on strong, TJ still got his fair share of looks. I remember reading somewhere he also was tied for the league lead for 3rd down TDs among receivers/TEs. TJ's basically the most reliable Bengals receiver even though he's not the most explosive, and I doubt anything except Carson's injury would stop him from finally clearing 1000 yards.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mike Brown	0	0	85	1050	8
Message Board Consensus	0	0	73	931	7