Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Torry Holt has had one of the best starts to a career in NFL history. Only three receivers have scored more fantasy points in their first seven seasons: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison. Only Harrison has more receptions, and Holt is the all-time NFL leader in receiving yards through seven years. Holt also ranks first all-time in receiving yards per game, although his average is likely to decline before he retires. More recently, Holt is the only WR with 600 or more total FPs the past three seasons. With that sort of track record, Holt would appear to be one of the safest choices in your draft this year. There are a few factors that increase his risk however.

1) The departure of Mike Martz can't be seen as a positive for Holt, who has accumulated nearly all his success under Martz. Holt saw 61 targets and caught 38 passes for 568 yards and 4 TDs during the five games Martz coached last year. The remaining eleven games were coached by Joe Vitt, and Holt was targeted 102 times while recording 64 receptions for 763 yards and 5 TDs. At first glance, this indicates that Holt saw a significant decline in his targets and fantasy production under Vitt.

However, Marc Bulger played in every game under Mike Martz, and in only two complete games under Vitt. In those two games, Holt was targeted 23 times and had 15 receptions, 174 yards and two scores. Those games were against Seattle and Arizona, two teams the Rams faced during the first five weeks of the season as well. In those first encounters, where Martz was the HC, Holt had 20 targets, 12 receptions, 196 yards and 2 TDs. If nothing else, we know the NFC West has no answer for Torry Holt and Marc Bulger.

Further, Holt couldn't have wished for a better replacement than Scott Linehan. Linehan was the OC in 2004, when the Vikings ranked third in the NFL in total yards, second in yards per pass, second in yards per rush and sixth in points scored. Daunte Culpepper also totaled more yards than any other player in NFL history that year. Last year Linehan was the offensive coordinator for the Dolphins, where his team was considerably less successful. The offense was largely mediocre, with the running game more impressive than the aerial attack. However, the offense did improve from a weak 2004 performance, but some of that is because of the because of the additions of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

More importantly for Holt, Linehan has relied heavily on the number one WR in his offense. Randy Moss had the best year of career under Linehan, and broke the 100 catch mark both times he stayed healthy when Linehan was the coordinator. When Moss was hurt, Linehan's offense featured Nate Burleson, who ranked as the third WR in fantasy football for that six game stretch in 2004. Finally, Chris Chambers had a breakout season under Linehan, setting career highs in every category and making his first Pro Bowl. Linehan's offense features his primary WR, and Holt is as good a primary WR as there is the NFL today.

2) Perhaps a more important concern for Holt is the injury history of QB Marc Bulger, who has never played 16 games in a year. In 2005, Holt averaged 15.7 FP/G in games where Holt was the leading passer, but just 11.0 FP/G in games started by either Jamie Martin or Ryan Fitzpatrick. On the other hand, Holt averaged 11.1 FP/G in 'Bulger' games in 2004, but 17.5 FP/G in the three games with other Rams QBs in 2004. Holt also did well without Bulger in prior years, but those games were all started by Warner and probably aren't indicative of what would happen this year if Gus Frerotte is taking snaps for St. Louis.

Gus Frerotte shouldn't be any worse than Jamie Martin, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Chris Chandler. And considering Holt has still been highly successful with other QBs playing, Bulger's inability to stay healthy isn't a huge knock on Holt.

3) The declines of Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce haven't hurt Holt's stats, but it's worth remembering that this team looks nothing like the offensive machine from 2000 and 2001. Faulk, Warner and Martz are now gone, and Bruce is no longer the same player. And while Holt was excellent those years, he's been even better since. The Rams have also been fortunate to have solid replacements in Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger and Kevin Curtis.

4) Holt missed two games due to a strained ligament in his knee last year, but those were the only two games he's missed in his entire career. Durability hasn't been a concern with Holt his whole career, and there's little reason to view him as an injury risk in 2006.

Positives

• Consistently among the league's most productive receivers
• Scott Linehan is a creative offensive mind
• Marc Bulger is one of the NFC's better quarterbacks

Negatives

• Holt will have to acclimate to a new offensive system for the first time in his NFL career
• The new offense should be more balanced, meaning less targets for the pass catchers and more rushes for Steven Jackson and friends
• The Rams are deep at WR, it's possible Holt could have an off week or two as some of the other guys make the big plays

Final Thoughts

Only Steve Smith and Terrell Owens scored more fantasy points per game than Holt last year, and Holt is a much safer pick than either of them. Holt carries less risk than almost any other WR, and still has excellent upside. Holt might not be the number one WR on many draft boards, but in this writer's opinion, he should be.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Philly Hater:
Holt is Mr. Consistent, and that's what it's all about for me. Steve Smith and Terrell Owens have a very good chance of putting up numbers that are better than Holt by a pretty good margin...but in my opinion, they're just as likely to disappoint. Holt will be the top WR on my board.

David Yudkin (Footballguys Staff):
The issue is not so much that Holt is a risky pick or if he will bomb. The question becomes when is he a good pick? WR1? WR5? WR8? He is pretty bankable in terms of what is range will be, but as already shown he may not get back what the investment may be. Everyone views that differently, of course, and the line in the sand may revolve upon if you would rather have Holt or a RB2 in that slot (or a QB or TE for the truly brave drafters out there).

KnowledgeReignsSupreme:
His surge up the fantasy ladder came exactly the same time Faulk started his decline. He is the best WR on that team right now and Linehan will get him the ball. Bruce is still good enough to keep defenses honest. I don't see Jackson having a Faulk like 80+ receptions. Whether or not he can finish #1 overall remains to be seen, but it's not like eyeballs will pop out of heads in astonishment if he does. He has a better chance than most to finish at the top of that 1st tier.

Torry Holt Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Chase Stuart	0	0	104	1550	12
Message Board Consensus	0	0	98	1387	10