Jason Wood's Thoughts

Code Name: Cerberus

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is identify which signal caller will emerge from the three-way battle in Bills training camp and start in Week One. But your mission doesn't end there, you must also determine if that same player will be the most productive passer over the entire season. Finally, the last leg of your mission is whether the answers to these questions have any fantasy significance whatsoever.

Let's be realistic; most redraft leagues are going to treat the Bills QB situation like toxic waste. Not only is there a completely wide open three way competition, the winner may be stepping into one of the league's least compelling situations.

1) Dick Jauron and Marv Levy are running the show -- Dick Jauron was well liked by his players in Chicago, but their enthusiasm for Jauron didn't help their play on the field. Yes, he led the Bears to a surprising 13-3 finish in 2001. But in his other four seasons, the Bears won a COMBINED 22 games, and never had another winning record. The erratic and ineffective play of his offense was to blame:

1999 -- 26th in points, 8th in yards
2000 -- 28th in points, 24th in yards
2002 -- 27th in points, 29th in yards
2003 -- 24th in points, 29th in yards

2) The offensive line looks, well, offensive -- Mike Gandy, Tutan Reyes, Melvin Fowler, Chris Villarrial and Jason Peters. This may not be the worst starting five in the league, but it's got to be close. OL coach Jim McNally worked wonders in New York, but his star has started to fade in Buffalo. If he can get this line to approximate the league average; he should be considered for assistant coach of the year.

3) The receiving corps = Lee Evans and, ummmmmmm, and ???? -- Lee Evans officially takes over the WR1 role from Eric Moulds after several years as his number two. But is Evans ready to ascend? He showed very little growth last year, and no one can say with confidence that he'll make the next step. But even if you're optimistic about Evans' chances, the rest of the receiving corps is a HUGE question mark. Peerless "Never Fearless" Price returns trying to reignite his dampened career. But it's been four years since he was an above average contributor. Beyond Price are Roscoe Parrish, Sam Aiken, Josh Reed, and Andre Davis. 'Nuff Said.

Clearly it's difficult to get excited about the Bills QB prospects. But, the crazy thing about the NFL is that you can be SURE things won't work out the way we plan. There will be teams that seemed playoff locks fall well short. There will be teams that are projected by every pundit to finish last in their division that end up taking home a division title. There will be fantasy players who go undrafted but turn out to be key pieces to your run to the Super Bowl. So maybe, just maybe, the Bills QB will end up being an important situation.

Let's handicap the players:

"The Journeyman" aka Kelly Holcomb -- Holcomb has played for Indianapolis, Cleveland and Buffalo in his 11 NFL seasons; starting games for all three teams. Last year he played QB musical chairs with Losman and had modest success. In 10 games, he completed 67% of his passes for 1509 yards, 10 TDs and 8 INTs. While not stellar numbers they were steady and good enough for a team to win games behind a sound running game and disciplined defense. Unfortunately, the Bills had neither of those in 2005, and may not again this year.

"The Young Buck" aka J.P. Losman -- Losman is supposed to be "the guy" having come out of Tulane with huge expectations that come with being a 1st round draft pick. While his physical abilities are tangible, so is his propensity to get rattled when things don't go well. Losman must learn to play within himself and maintain calm under pressure or all his physical abilities will be meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

"The New Guy in Town" aka Craig Nall -- Nall is the most intriguing because he's the least proven. We haven't seen enough of him to pinpoint his flaws. He also fits the mold of some emergent QBs in recent  years. He was a Packers backup; as were Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks and Matt Hasselbeck. He played exceptionally well in preseason games; reminiscent of Jake Delhomme who came from New Orleans and has become a Pro Bowl starter in Carolina. Physically, Nall is what teams look for (6'3", 224 pounds) and spent four years interning under Favre. He's probably the long shot to win the job, but he could be the best quarterback of the group.

Positives

• Every season at least one or two players makes an impact despite being completely off the fantasy radar on draft day
• The schedule is favorable; particularly outside of the division
• The Bills defense, if it doesn't improve, will ensure the Bills must throw a lot to play catch up

Negatives

• Dick Jauron
• The offensive line
• The receiving corps

Final Thoughts

In 10- and 12-team redrafts, none of these guys is worth considering on draft day unless you're in a start 2QB league whereby all potential starters are rostered. If I had to handicap which of these guys would emerge at some point this year; it would be Nall. Sure, we haven't seen much of him but what we have seen has been impressive. He's got poise, understands the nuances of a complex playbook and has physical toughness and the arm to make every throw on the field. As some point in the season you're going to need a bye week fill in or spot starter off waivers, and the Bills QB at the time could be an option; particularly because their schedule looks favorable. Let the season unfold a bit and see a) if the offensive line is better than we think, b) if Willis McGahee has the ground game going and c) which QB is under center. But don't rule out this situation just because it's not a premier one.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Musesboy:
The situation at quarterback is the main reason that most people are down on the Bills' players this year. After moving up to make Losman a first round choice in 2004, the Bills made him their 2005 starter without giving Kelly Holcomb the chance to compete. That move angered some of the veteran players and some thought that if Losman were the best QB on the roster, he should have been required to prove it before being handed the job.

As a Bills' season ticket holder, I got to watch Losman through most of his struggles last year. He started game one against the Texans and did better than I expected. He wasn't spectacular, but he did complete over 60% of his passes and the Bills won the game comfortably. Losman's first NFL touchdown was to lineman Jason Peters. Mularkey loves to utilize trick plays and it was fitting that Losman's first TD should come on a throw to a converted TE. What I didn't know at the time was just how bad the Texans would turn out to be last year. But the good sign was that Losman didn't throw an interception in the game.

From that point on, he deteriorated fast. His next three games were a disaster and his completion rate was only 42.4% during that span. He failed to throw a TD and had two interceptions. That led to him being benched. The players seemed to respond better to Holcomb, and Eric Moulds was much more involved in the game. At that point, Holcomb's experience made him the better quarterback.

Losman appeared in five games after that, with four of them being starts. He did show some improvement. He seemed to trust his instincts and attempt passes when they were there to be made. He also appeared to be developing some chemistry with Lee Evans.

In that five game spell, Losman completed 68 of 134 passes (50.7%) for 907 yards (6.77 YPA) with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. That might look like a bad performance, but I think it is a clear indication that Losman was finally "getting it". He was immature last year; both as a player and in his interviews with the media. He should now realize that nothing will be handed to him. Hopefully the experience will humble him and make him work harder. Early reports suggest that he is a much different player to the one we saw last year.

Why do I keep talking about Losman when this is a three player evaluation? Well, I just can't see the Bills going with Holcomb or Nall. I suspect that the coaching staff will want Losman to win the job, but they will also want him to feel like he has earned the position, and they will want the rest of the team to feel the same thing. If they go with Holcomb, it would be an admission that Losman doesn't have what it takes to take the team very far. Bearing in mind they gave up the chance to draft Leinart or Cutler, I think the coaching staff thinks Losman may be the QB of the future.

Almost every QB struggles in their first year as starter. I recently wrote an article to illustrate that point and submitted it for consideration. I have no idea whether it is good enough to be published, but I will post it here if it isn't chosen. It shows just how much improvement can be expected in the second year that a quarterback starts. The top eight in the study averaged 7 FPs more in their second year as a starter, or 112 FPs over a full season.

That doesn't prove that Losman will be one that improves dramatically, but the possibility is there. It's so difficult to predict how much a QB will improve and it almost requires a leap of faith. One recent example that perfectly illustrates what can happen is the performance of Eli Manning in 2005.

Manning had a slow start to his career. After Kurt Warner had led the Giants to a 5-4 record, Manning was given the starting job. He proceeded to lose the next six games before beating the Cowboys in the final game of the season. Here are Manning's statistics for those games:

92/188 (48.9%) for 977 yards (5.20 YPA) 6 TDs and 9 INTs.

Manning was raw and it was a tough schedule, but he had a worse completion percentage than Losman, a much lower yards per attempt figure, and he threw more TDs than INTs, unlike Losman. He achieved one win and went over 200 yards on one occasion (201) as did Losman last year.

The Bills lost Eric Moulds and so Lee Evans will become the number one receiver. There is a battle for the role opposite him between Andre Davis, Peerless Price and Josh Reed. Parrish will likely compete for the slot position. Royal and Everett will replace Campbell at TE. The line has seen some turnover and will hopefully be better.

Losman is a very mobile QB and that will add to his fantasy value. In his limited action last year, he averaged 5 yards per carry and gained over 150 yards on the ground. Ten of those carries went for a first down and he had one run of over 20 yards. As he grows into his role, he will learn when to scramble and when to throw the ball away. It will also be an effective weapon in goal line situations and I expect him to run in a few TDs over the course of his career.

I don't see any staff member that ranks Losman above 29, so that does have me questioning my sanity. But I think that there is considerable cause for optimism. I may have my Buffalo glasses on, but I think Losman will emerge as the starter and outperform his draft position by a huge margin. Losman is currently being drafted behind guys that aren't even expected to start for their team, and that is ludicrous.

rzrback77:
The Buffalo QB job is up for grabs. The Buffalo passing game has produced an average of 2925 yards and 20TDs over the past two seasons. There are expectations that the defense will be much improved and potential for an already conservative offense to be even more so.

FBG projects the starter as Holcomb, but most Bill posters I read think it will be Losman. They have five WRs and only one is a certain starter. He has never been the "Go-To" guy. They signed Andre Davis from the Pats. They resigned Peerless Price who hasn't done squat since he left Buffalo after the 02 season and is also with his third team Reed or Parrish to sign these two guys.

I just don't see how any of these Buffalo QBs could be drafted. I think that even if the starter is known, that they should be considered only in line with the Bears and Jets QBs and unless you play in a 14-team league, I would not consider them at all.

Kelly Holcomb Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	460	3	3	10	0
Message Board Consensus	2490	14	11	20	0