Jason Wood's Thoughts

As long as he's not playing against the Eagles, I'm a huge Matt Hasselbeck fan. Last year, I touted him as a breakout fantasy starter and he more than delivered against expectations. On his way to a second Pro Bowl and his first Super Bowl appearance, Hasselbeck put on a fantasy clinic with 3,455 yards, a 65.5% completion percentage, 24 TD passes and only nine interceptions. His 5th place fantasy finish was enhanced by consistency (TD passes in 14 games, 220+ yards in 11 games) and, as importantly, he saved his best work for the critical fantasy playoff run:

Weeks 14-16, 2005

• 59 completions
• 73 attempts
• 80.8% completion
• 679 yards
• 9.3 yards per attempt
• 9 TD passes
• 1 INT

It's difficult, if not impossible for me to envision a scenario where Matt Hasselbeck doesn't at least match, if not exceed, last year's production [as long as he stays healthy].

Don't over analyze the loss of Steve Hutchinson -- Some are going to point to the loss of Steve Hutchinson as a point of concern. While this may seem blasphemous to some football diehards, I'm not buying it. Sure, Hutch is the best interior lineman in the league. But he's a GUARD. And this isn't a team bereft of other options. The Seahawks have terrific depth along the line and will still field one of the league's best units. Whether Pork Chop Womack, Tom Ashworth or one of the youngsters steps in, the Seahawks are in good shape.

Shaun Alexander probably isn't going to score as much in 2006 -- I say "probably" because there are no certainties in the league. However, Shaun Alexander had an historic season in 2005 and his 27 rushing TDs simply isn't a feat likely to be matched by either Alexander or anyone else for some time. Much like Peyton Manning two years ago (49 TD passes), we can expect a regression to the mean by Alexander. That means, quite logically, the Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game are in line for an uptick in scoring chances.

The receiving corps should be better -- I'm a big believer in Nate Burleson, and because of that I think the trio of Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram represents an upgrade over last year's trio that included Joe Jurevicius. But even if Burleson merely approximates what Joe Jurevicius did, Hasselbeck's receiving corps should be more productive if only they stay healthier. Let's not forget that Darrell Jackson missed ten games a year ago. Even if DJax can only play half the season, it's more than he gave the team (and Hasselbeck) in 2005. Bobby Engram also missed three games a year ago, so a healthy season from him helps things.

Continuity breeds excellence -- Matt Hasselbeck is entering his sixth season in Seattle, his fourth as the team's primary starter. He's had the benefit of playing for the same coach in the same offensive system; an invaluable commodity for any QB. As Andy Reid (a protégé of Holmgren's in Green Bay), is fond of saying, it takes a QB three or four years to master the nuances of their complex version of the West Coast offense. Hasselbeck is now at the point where he's got complete command of the playbook and huddle. Add to that a nearly identical offensive unit from last season and his situation is one of the least risky to project, in my opinion.

Positives

• Despite what his hairline might suggest, Matt Hasselbeck is one of the more athletic QBs in the league. At 6'4", 220 pounds, he's big enough to take a pounding (even though his line keeps that from being a necessity) and he's got mobility to boot. He's had 120+ yards rushing and at least one rushing TD in each of the last four seasons.
• The offensive line remains one of the league's deepest and most talented, despite the loss of Steve Hutchinson
• The Seahawks has a very favorable schedule, with opposing defenses projected to give up more fantasy points to the QB than all but two other teams

Negatives

• Steve Hutchinson is the best interior lineman in the NFL, and if I am discounting his value the line could theoretically take a step back and cause the entire offense to regress a bit
• With Shaun Alexander locked into a long-term deal and in his prime, the Seahawks have little incentive to stop running him in the red zone
• Darrell Jackson remains an injury risk, Bobby Engram isn't getting any younger and Nate Burleson isn't a sure thing

Final Thoughts

I get the sense a lot of people are looking for reasons to discount Hasselbeck's fantasy prospects this year. I've heard and read a lot of "yeah, he's good...but his ADP is too high." But, beyond Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who is a better bet to give you top tier production? Donovan McNabb could, but his health and the loss of TO are question marks. Carson Palmer's health can't be trusted until we see him on the field. Marc Bulger has a bum shoulder and a new offense to learn. Eli Manning has potential but he also completed 53% of his passes and threw 17 interceptions last year. Drew Bledsoe is solid but age and a lack of mobility are reasons to tread lightly. At the end of the day, if I can draft Matt Hasselbeck in the 5th or 6th round this year; I'm going to very seriously consider it. He's got upside to 30+ TD passes and 4,000 yards; and his downside should be no worse than 3,400 yards and 22-24 TDs, good enough to lock in top 10 production.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

tommyGunZ:
Hass on everyone's top 5 QB list heading into the season. While the potential is there for him to meet those high expectations, I think smart money is avoiding the 3rd/4th round pick you'll have to spend to secure Matt in '06. The addition of Nate Burleson and a full season of Darrell Jackson bodes well for Hass, but Hasseback's average passing numbers suggests he'll finish near the end of the top 10 meaning you'll be overpaying if you draft him, while missing the opportunity to grab QB value in rounds 8-12.

KnowledgeReignsSupreme:
I like Hass, but his ADP will keep him off my teams most likely.

Kiddnets:
He has all the weapons - the only wild card is Alexander vulturing - couldn't be any more than last year so I see him doing even better. Add a healthy D Jax and it doesn't come any better than Hass.

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Matt Hasselbeck Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3850	28	14	100	1
Message Board Consensus	3920	27	13	104	1