Jason Wood's Thoughts

Marvin Harrison is on his way to hallowed ground. Last year, Harrison became only the 6th player in league history to catch 900 career receptions, and only the sixth player to catch 100+ career TDs. For his career, Harrison has already carved out Hall of Fame numbers and can push higher with another season or two commensurate with what we've come to expect.

• Receptions -- Harrison has 927 career receptions, and is the fastest player in league history to the 900-catch mark. He needs only 25 catches to overtake Andre Reed for 4th all-time, and is only 167 catches behind Tim Brown for 3rd place (in other words, two more seasons).

• Receiving yards -- Harrison's 12,331 yards sit 10th place all-time. Another 1,000-yard season would put Harrison in 6th place (Andre Reed is sixth with 13,198 yards). Two more 1,000-yard seasons and Harrison sits alone in 3rd place.

• Receiving TDs -- Harrison's 110 TDs are 3rd all-time but he would be hard pressed to move up the ranks this year. He trails Cris Carter by 20 TDs, and needs another 88 to pass Jerry Rice; probably not going to happen.

Last year was the first time that fantasy owners may have been mildly disappointed in Harrison's production. On the surface, his numbers were rock solid. 82 receptions, 1,146 yards and 12 TDs were yet another top-10 fantasy finish (WR9). Yet, given his ADP, fantasy owners were expecting more, as he hadn't finish worse than WR5 in six seasons! The question becomes, was Harrison's 9th place finish indicative of his new baseline, or merely an "off" year?

At some point, even the best players fall off; but it's so difficult to predict a falloff ahead of time. Two years ago, if you avoided Curtis Martin because of his age, you missed out on the NFL's leading rusher. Yet, a season ago had you avoided him it was a decision well rewarded. Joe Horn had been a virtual lock for 80 catches and 1,000 yards...until last season. There are countless examples of guys who "couldn't miss" that ended up missing. With Harrison, he underwent not one but two surgeries this offseason, on his wrist and elbow, to correct injuries suffered during the 2005 season. While any surgery is a concern, Harrison has been a regular participant in the early part of training camp.

Putting aside Harrison's age or recent surgeries, you won't find a more compelling situation among fantasy receivers than Harrison's.

1. He's got the league's best passer under center (Peyton Manning)
2. He's got a very good 2nd receiver to keep defenses honest (Reggie Wayne)
3. The Colts lost Edgerrin James -- To be clear, the Colts will more than likely remain an effective running team if Joe Addai and Dom Rhodes are healthy. But the fact remains that Edgerrin James was the NFL's most used runner in the red zone over the last four years. Without him, the Colts will assuredly throw more scoring passes in the red zone. While Manning probably won't challenge his 49 TD mark of two seasons ago, he should push 35+ TDs
4. The schedule looks fantastic -- According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, Harrison has an easy schedule, with two very important nuances. One, the first five weeks are easy; which means Harrison should get off to a strong start. Two, the LAST five weeks are among the easiest in the league; which means Harrison and the potent Colts passing attack will be at their best when it matters most.

Positives

• Harrison has finished no worse than WR9 in seven seasons; and has been a top 5 fantasy option six times
• Peyton Manning remains the league's best pure passer; and the Colts passing attack has a very favorable schedule
• The loss of Edgerrin James all but ensures the team will throw more in the red zone; much as they did in 2004

Negatives

• Harrison isn't the biggest receiver, and at his age one can't ignore even "minor" surgeries like those he had this offseason
• Reggie Wayne is an elite receiver in many pundits' eyes, and his presence means Harrison's days of catching 120+ passes are long gone
• Last year's WR9 finish was a disappointment to fantasy owners expecting another top-5 finish

Final Thoughts

When the only thing you can say wrong about a guy is "he may give you top-10 production instead of top-5", he's worth your attention. Obviously Marvin Harrison's 9th place finish last year combined with his age has folks wondering if they should pass him over for a younger top-10 option. While I think it's always a good idea to scrutinize players; particularly those we simply assume will repeat prior performance, I wonder if people are over thinking Harrison's outlook. The Colts passing game should be more productive than it was last year, and Reggie Wayne (only one top 10 season in his career) isn't a real threat to overtake Harrison, in my view. As long as Harrison makes it through training camp unscathed, I think he'll start a new streak of offering value on draft day (having failed to do so last year).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

rzrback77:
Reviewing Marvin Harrison's numbers for the past four years, I see a slight downward trend. After finishing 1st for the third time in four years in 2002, he has ranked 5th, 5th, and 9th. His reception total has gone from 143 to 94 to 86 to 82, even while the Colts passing was increasing for three of the four years. I think that trend continues. Coupled with his ADP of 23 and WR7, I see some risk this year with reliable Marvin.

Musesboy:
Marvin Harrison doesn't do much. He just runs smooth routes, quietly makes catches, and scores 10-15 TDs per year. Manning is the best fantasy QB in the league and Harrison is his main target. Reggie Wayne gets a lot of targets too because Manning will throw to whoever is open, but Harrison is the first option in the passing game.

Harrison had elbow surgery this offseason and is apparently fine. 2005 was a big year for him. He enjoyed his second-highest yards per catch, and one of his TDs went for a career-long 80 yards. Because he has been around so long, many believe he is fading. But if Galloway can have a top five year at the same age with Chris Simms at QB, I'll take Harrison and Manning to add to their record number of TDs together.

Cool in the pocket:
In the last 7 years, he has never had less than 1100 yards, 82 receptions or 10TD's. Logic would suggest that that should be his floor. On top of that he rarely misses games. Age is starting to be a factor as many have pointed out, but in reality Marvin is the SA of WR's only he has done it longer. He did it when Peyton blew up (shocking I know), but he also did it when Edge blew out in 2001. Whether the running game is effective or not, the Indy passing game thrives. With the development of the TEs and Wayne, Stokely in the slot, there is no reason to believe the Indy O will lose much with Edge in the desert.

Marvin Harrison Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	90	1200	11
Message Board Consensus	0	0	87	1193	12