Chase Stuart's Thoughts

In the last 20 years, only two Chicago QBs have ranked in the top 10 (Erik Kramer in 1995 and Jim Harbaugh in 1991) in fantasy points. Sixteen of the past twenty seasons Chicago didn't have a QB finish among the top twenty. The median ranking for Bears QBs over that span is 26th; and remember, that the NFL had only 28 teams for nine of those years. And over the past forty seasons, only once did a Bears' QB pass for more than sixteen touchdowns. In other words, Chicago has had some trouble finding success at the QB position. According to one study (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=48), no team has had worse QB play in modern history than Da Bears.

But this off-season Chicago added Brian Griese, and now the Bears have quantity if not quality at the position. Griese has had an interesting career: he was in the shadows of two HOF QBs, his father Brian and Bronco great John Elway. And while Griese's never played a sixteen game season, he's had two excellent years when he posted QB ratings of 97.5 and 102.9. Griese has 25 more TDs than INTs for his career, a 63.1 completion percentage and has averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt.

Conversely, Rex Grossman has a blank resume. One commonality among the Windy City QBs is that Grossman has also never played a full season. In fact, he hasn't even played sixteen total games in three years.

So is there any hope for the Bears QBs this year? Chicago QBs rank dead last in fantasy points since 2002. And 2003. And 2004. Last year Chicago QBs scored the second fewest FPs of any team in the league the past four years, ahead of only the 2006 49ers. Some of that, however, might be due to the great defense.

The Bears last year led the league in points allowed, and attempted just 418 passes last season, third fewest in the NFL. However, that doesn't mean the Bears won't be passing more in 2006. Some of the best defenses in history relied almost exclusively on the ground game, but changed things up the next year. Consider:

(PA/G = Pass Attempts per Game) 1977 Atlanta Falcons: 9.2 PPG allowed; 21.2 PA/G; 28.1 PA/G in 1978
1976 Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.9 PPG allowed;19.8 PA/G ;24.4 PA/G in 1977
2000 Baltimore Ravens: 10.3 PPG allowed; 31.5 PA/G; 34.8 PA/G in 2001
1986 Chicago Bears: 11.6 PPG allowed; 25.9 PA/G; 32.9 PA/G in 1987
2000 Tennessee Titans: 11.9 PPG allowed; 28.9 PA/G ;32.2 PA/G in 2001

Of course, teams with great defenses that don't pass the ball much don't always see an uptick in attempts the next year. The '75 Rams, '75 Steelers and '85 Bears are examples of that.

Last year, the Bears ran just 937 plays, fourth fewest in the NFL. While plays run is strongly correlated to pass attempts, the number of plays a team runs varies considerably from year to year and is difficult to predict. All this brings us to the same place: just because the Bears had an anemic aerial attack in 2005 doesn't mean they won't be slinging the rock this year.

Interestingly enough, the Bears didn't make any changes to the offense (outside of Griese) in the offseason. Muhsin Muhammad has a history of production when he's got a capable quarterback throwing to him: three times Muhammad has recorded 90 receptions and 1100 yards in a season. Bernard Berrian and Mark Bradley are young, tall and fast. Both have been productive for stretches early in their careers, and could really help stretch the defense this year. The early word on Bradley is that he's looking good after ACL surgery, and should be ready to go in 2006.

The biggest question mark for Chicago is durability. None of Chicago's top three quarterbacks have ever played a full season. The history at running back isn't much better: Cedric Benson missed seven games due to injury last year, and Thomas Jones has missed time due to injuries in four of his six seasons. Muhsin Muhammad has played a full slate of games just three times in ten years, and Berrian and Bradley combined for just 18 games last year. Chicago's problem is more a question of health than talent, but there are too many 'ifs' to get excited about the Bears offense this year.

Positives

• He's the Bears starter
• When healthy, Grossman has excellent mechanics and above average arm strength
• The defense and running game will take a ton of pressure off the starting quarterback

Negatives

• He's yet to stay healthy, and Brian Griese is more than capable of taking the job and never giving it back
• The Bears offense was among the league's worst a year ago
• Beyond Muhsin Muhammad, the Bears have few proven receiving options

Final Thoughts

Grossman has the weapons needed to spread the defense, and the strong running game should keep defenses honest. The Bears might pleasantly surprise on offense this year, but Chicago's still unlikely to finish in the top half of the league. As a result, Grossman and Griese won't have much value in standard leagues other than as bye week fill ins. Griese probably won't beat Grossman out for the starting job in training camp, but he should see time sooner or later in 2006.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

jerseys finest:
The offensive line, running game and defense are all top notch...For the chicago QBs to be servicable fantasy wise, someone besides Mush is going to have to step up this year to help out the QB or else its going to be a repeat of last year (slightly improved since both Grossman and Griese are better then Orton)

Bri:
Grossman will be given every opportunity to fail. Griese will wind up having a good 10-12 games with maybe 2,500 yards and 18 TDs. Poor Orton thought he landed on the right team as a rook and now...

ffgiant:
Has Chicago every have a fantansy worthy QB at all?

Rex Grossman Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Chase Stuart	1860	8	8	70	0
Message Board Consensus	2500	18	10	40	0