Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Despite ranking last in total offense and last in total defense, there was one bright spot on the 2005 San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore. San Francisco had one of the worst passing seasons of all time, but the 49ers actually ranked 14th in yards per carry among RBs. Gore was a big part of that, and he ended the season with the first 100 yard game of his career. So what does 2006 hold for the former Miami Hurricane that once averaged 9.1 yards per carry as a true freshman??

San Francisco added Antonio Bryant and rookie TE Vernon Davis in the off-season, which should help breathe some life into the 'Niners offense. Alex Smith can't possibly be any worse than he was last year, right? Of the 80 rookie QBs since 1980 with 100 pass attempts, Smith's 40.8 Passer Rating tops only Ryan Leaf and Kurt Kittner. On the other hand, numbers 69, 70 and 73 on that list are Steve Young, Troy Aikman and John Elway. And just last year Eli Manning went from horrible to fantasy stud. Smith's rookie season was disappointing, but some improvement should be expected, and he may still turn out to be a star.

That would help everyone on the 49ers offense, which ran a league low 865 plays last year. That's the fewest by an NFL team since the 2000 Browns. An uptick in plays run should help out whoever carries the ball for the 49ers.

So who IS going to run for San Francisco? Kevan Barlow has fizzled after a great start to his career, and I'm not sure there's much hope left that he can do well on a bad team. Barlow's 3.34 YPC average over the past two years is by far the lowest among all 28 RBs with 300 carries or more over that span. Maybe Barlow could resurrect his career on a good team, but there's little reason to expect Barlow to be so good in 2006 that Frank Gore won't see the field.

The biggest worry for Gore is injuries, of course. He had surgery on both shoulders this off-season. While repairing injured shoulders is a good thing, and it's impressive that he ran well despite being injured last year, Gore has such a long and ugly history with injuries that any new injury is a red flag. Gore tore the ACL in both his knees in college. His durability will be a question mark until he can put together consecutive years without getting hurt.

The other noteworthy addition this year is the hiring of Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner. Turner was the OC or HC when RBs Emmitt Smith, Terry Allen, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams and LaMont Jordan saw great success. While that's well documented, Turner's "other" work is generally less referenced: his leading rusher in 2004 for the Raiders was Amos Zereoue with 425 yards. In 1994 Ricky Ervins led Turner's Redskins with 650 yards and three TDs. Allen also had two years where he ranked as just the 29th and 31st best fantasy players, despite being the Redskins top RB.

The bottom line is that Norv Turner can make Emmit Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson a stud, and he won't do much for Ricky Ervins or Amos Zereoue. If that makes you think he'll turn Kevan Barlow or Frank Gore into a stud, then we're on different pages.

Positives

• Talent and raw athleticism
• The other RBs on San Francisco aren't very good
• Got in the coach's good graces by rushing for 174 yards and 2 TDs in consecutive wins to end 2005

Negatives

• Durability -- will Gore ever remain healthy so we can see if he can reach his potential?
• The San Francisco offense is the worst in the league
• Doesn't have great speed or hands

Final Thoughts

Gore's an intriguing prospect this year with good upside. His ADP is around RB36, and he would make for a very nice RB4 in standard fantasy leagues. Gore's definitely risky as your third RB, because it wouldn't be surprising to see him have little fantasy value in 2006. The quality of your other RBs should dictate whether or not you want to take a chance on Gore this year. Until training camp comes around, it's hard to project Gore with over 200 carries because there's still a chance that Kevan Barlow becomes the favored RB in San Francisco.

The 49ers added Larry Allen to their offensive line this year, and the former 10-time Pro Bowler still has something left. He'll bring veteran leadership to a young and improving offensive line, so don't be surprised if San Francisco can maintain a pretty decent running game this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

toxicbees:
I like Gore a lot, he has quick moves and great vision. Both of which Barlow seems to lack. My biggest concern with Gore is the knees and now shoulders. That's why I don't think he'll stay healthy all season. One of my concerns about Gore is that Barlow is going to steal the goal line carries. Barlow is definitely the bigger and more physical back.

Ace08:
The biggest question is....now that he's finally healthy (knee-wise) and has lost the weight...how much of his speed will he be able to recapture. He was never a "burner"....but he did arrive at Miami as a 4.5 guy....which is fast enough given his natural running instincts. If Gore is 100%, and it's a big if, he could be this year's biggest fantasy sleeper. Gore's biggest competition won't come from Barlow...it will come from himself.

BL Titans:
I don't think he'll beat out Barlow - and he's too patched up to last anyway. Two off-season shoulder operations, bionic knees...he's an injury waiting to happen in my opinion.

Frank Gore Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Chase Stuart	170	700	5	15	120	0
Message Board Consensus	170	841	5	28	251	1