Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

Tony Gonzalez has been a consistent playmaker in Kansas City for years.  Despite playing the TE position, Tony has proven to be the Chief’s most dangerous weapon in the passing offense.  He has put up some nice numbers over the years, even posting two 1,200 yard seasons.  Not only is he the most dangerous weapon, but he has become Trent Green’s most trusted target.  Whenever the chips are down Green will look to Gonzalez before anyone else. With his size and skill set Tony has become the prototype of what most teams look for when drafting a TE.  He has the ability to beat the defense in a variety of ways.  He is strong enough to out-battle smaller defenders in traffic, and his leaping ability allows him to out-jump defenders for the ball.  Gonzalez has been the model of good health, having only missed 1 game in 9 years.  Last season was Tony’s first year when he didn’t finish amongst the top 2 TEs in the league. Entering his 10th season in the NFL many wonder how long Tony can continue to be a dominant force.   

Questions about Tony Gonzalez for 2006:

Has age finally caught up with him?
The truth of the matter is that Tony Gonzalez is no spring chicken.  He is a 9-season vet, and his body has taken more punishment than other TEs due to the frequency that he has been used.  He is an incredible athlete, but one must wonder how much longer he can maintain this level of play.  Gonzalez keeps himself in great shape, so conditioning should not be a problem.  After setting the record for receptions by a TE in 2004 his production waned mostly due to the fact that most teams covered him with their best cornerback.  Kansas City also has a very capable running game, which they rely on heavily and a monster in the backfield named Larry Johnson.  So Tony’s numbers may not be what they once were, but it’s not going to be due to his age.

What will his role be in Herman Edward’s offense?
Gonzalez is a special player, and a caliber of TE that Herman Edwards has never had the privilege of coaching.  That being said, Edwards has never relied on his TEs that much.  During his 5 seasons with the Jets the TEs averaged 41 receptions, 400 yards, and 5 touchdowns COMBINED.  One can argue that the TEs in NY aren’t as good (they aren’t), and that the WR corps is more talented than the KC counterpart (they are).  With all these factors taken into account one can expect Tony Gonzalez to almost double the production that Herman’s TE corps averaged.  Gonzalez is a superstar at the TE position and Herman will undoubtedly use him extensively, no matter what his history as a coach shows us. 

Will Kris Wilson cut into his playing time?
The short answer is no.  But Kansas City would love to see Wilson emerge into the type of playmaker they envisioned when they drafted him out of Pittsburgh in 2004.  However, injuries de-railed his rookie season and Jason Dunn’s blocking ability severely limited his playing time in 2005.  Wilson is athletically gifted like Gonzalez and the two have a similar skill set.  But unless Gonzalez is injured (an unlikely event) Wilson will play sparingly.  Tony Gonzalez has been a great mentor to Wilson, but Kris may have to go to another team to get the type of playing time that he desires.
   
Will he score more than he did in 2005?
With only 2 touchdowns to his credit in 2005 Tony fell from the top of the ranks at the TE position.  Of course, it’s hard to score when you don’t get the opportunity.  Kansas City has a superior offensive line, and Larry Johnson has an incredible nose for the end zone.  And with that run game Tony is asked to stay in and block more than in year’s past.  Historically, Gonzalez has always started the year off slowly.  If he can get off to a better start, or if the running game falters, then he should score more than he did last year.  Even if everything stays the same, it’s hard to imagine that Gonzalez would go 2 years in a row with less than 5 touchdowns.

Positives

• Trent Green’s most trusted target, and the most reliable receiver that Kansas City has.
• Elite skill set that he can use to abuse defenses in a variety of ways.
• Savvy veteran player that knows how to get open and give his QB the best target.

Negatives

• Has absorbed a lot of punishment over the last 9 years.
• New offense doesn’t cater to the TE position as in year’s past.
• Dominant run game takes away from what his production could be.

Final Thoughts

Dick Vermeil is gone, and Herman Edwards is looking for a fresh start in KC. Edwards is not ignorant and knows that if he is to have any success in the passing game, then he must include Tony Gonzalez as much as possible. Tony can endear himself to the new coaching staff by trying to get off to a faster start than he has in recent years. The Chiefs are a team that is on the edge of being a playoff contender, and Gonzalez will be a big part of their success. Team’s can’t afford to have slow starts in the NFL, and if Tony comes out guns blazing it will only help his team’s chance of getting into the postseason. Despite what we saw in 2005, Gonzalez is still the superstar that he always has been. His numbers in 2006 should see him back atop the league leaders at the TE position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Snotbubbles:
I have had Gonzo on my team virtually every year and the one thing I noticed was that when Wille Roaf was out of the lineup he was asked to stay in and block, or to line up in a down position and chip DEs. This was enough to limit his down the field pass routes which resulted in a slightly less YPC average and virtually no TD production. Without Roaf, Gonzo averaged 9.6 YPC. With Roaf, Gonzo average 13.1 YPC. I think with a healthy offensive line Gonzo will put up good numbers in 2006.

Tony Gonzalez:
I think he's being overlooked for younger and sexier players at his position, and people are focusing too much on his small TD total from 2005. Fact is, Gonzalez was still the #2 TE in the league in receptions and yardage in 2005, and the likely situation with Herm Edwards coming into town is that he'll get more red zone work than he did in 2005; few coaches feed the ball to their RB in the red zone as much as Vermeil does. With Gates' situation uncertain due to a new QB, Gonzo could easily wind up as the #1 TE again, and he should certainly be in the top 3.

H.K.:
In the "what have you done for me lately" world of fantasy football, it is easy to look at a player's most recent season and forget about previous ones. Gonzo appears to be the player this year that is being substantially overlooked based on one season's performance.

Shiver44:
He only has 4 touchdowns in the last 24 games. Not to mention, under Herm/Solari the Chief's passing game will be conservative. I think he will be overvalued on draft day. No longer is he the king of the position. I see no reason why he is more valuable than Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap or Alge Crumpler.

Tony Gonzalez Projections

SOURCE	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Cecil Lammey	72	810	6
Message Board Consensus	76	929	7