Spotlight - TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

In an era of resurgent tight ends, Gates is the new poster boy. While Tony Gonzalez has the most impressive career numbers of the new breed, Gates has given notice that he's trying to reinvent the way we judge performance at the position. Lest you think I'm delving in hyperbole, consider:

His 13 TD receptions in 2004 were the most by any TE in league history (single season)
By grabbing double digit TDs last year, he became only the 4th TE in history to have more than one season of 10+ TDs (Shannon Sharpe, Tony Gonzalez and Wesley Walls are the others)
Gates is the only TE in league history to have back-to-back 10 TD seasons
His 1,101 receiving yards rank 11th all-time at the position (single season)
His 431 yards after the catch led all AFC receivers (TEs and WRs)

Physically, Gates is a beast. At 6'4", 260 pounds, Gates shouldn't be able to run as quick or fluidly as he does; but his former days as a basketball player are evident each and every time he goes out in a pass pattern. Just two years ago, Gates was raw and getting by on his physicality. Now, Gates is becoming a more nuanced player, learning how to read crossing patterns and find space within the zone rather than simply relying on his power to come down with the ball. In the red zone, there are few if any receivers in the league better equipped to make plays consistently.

So it should come as no surprise that Gates is both the first tight end drafted (27th overall) but also a full two rounds ahead of counterparts Tony Gonzalez and Jeremy Shockey.

Many of the things that made Gates a compelling fantasy option remain in place:

1) A conservative head coach
2) A less-than-impressive WR corps
3) An powerful running game

But there are two major question marks one should be aware of before haphazardly calling out Gates' name in the third round this year:

1) Philip Rivers
2) The offensive line

Rivers started more games in college than any other D1 quarterback and has patiently backed up Drew Brees the last two seasons. This year he takes over, which means Gates has to adjust to a new signal caller. Rivers has a bright future to be sure, but what about his 2006 outlook? You will find a divided house here at Footballguys on Rivers' 2006 prospects. Personally, I think he's going to struggle having never played the pro game before. The Chargers aren't loaded offensively and their offensive line is a question mark (see below). If Rivers struggles as I fear he might, Gates' numbers will take a haircut. They won't be bad, far from it, but they probably won't match his output of the last two seasons.

The offensive line, on the other hand, may struggle this year AND has an unclear longer term future. When Hudson Houck left for Miami last season, many pundits wondered whether the Chargers offensive line could continue to play better than its component talent indicated. Last year we started to see just how valuable Houck is, and now two years removed from his master tutelage, the Chargers appear to have an below average line. That is a concern for Gates for two reasons. One, as a tight end he'll have to stay in to block more often (or be on the sidelines while a blocking TE does his thing). Two, a weak line could mean a pounding for Rivers; in turn meaning a less productive passing attack.

Positives

Gates has no physical equal among pass catchers in the NFL
Tight ends have traditional served as a safety outlet for young QBs, and Rivers is sure to look his way early and often
There is no better red zone TE, perhaps in league history. His 23 TDs over the last two years are an NFL record for the position; and he's the only TE in league history with back-to-back 10+ TD seasons

Negatives

Philip Rivers
Marty Schottenheimer
The offensive line

Final Thoughts

If I had to place odds on which tight end was most likely to be the top rated fantasy option at year end, Gates would be the choice. He's done too much the last two seasons to think he can't overcome the question marks before him. Yet, it's downright impossible for me to think he can match or exceed last year's numbers with Rivers at the helm. If I'm right, I think Gates is hardly worth his current ADP, because I would just as soon take Shockey, Heap or Gonzalez two or three rounds later for similar statistical output. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

H.K.
QB is not a position that is plug and play, so Rivers should really hurt Gates this season. Gates has had two of the best FF seasons ever for a TE...but Brees was his QB. Now the Chargers have a complete unknown at QB, a very difficult schedule, and no other weapons in the passing game to take the heat off of Gates. Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler & Shockey should all have better years than Gates. Better off letting someone else grab him and go for a guy like McMichael or Witten later on if you can't get one of the big four.

Jack Ham & Eggs:
Antonio Gates is one of those rare talents that will get his numbers no matter what. As far as no other weapons in the passing game goes, it sure hasn't hurt him so far. LT2 will provide plenty enough distraction anyway. I really don't see any major reason for concern in selecting Gates this year.

CalBear:
Gates is extremely talented, but if you project a significant drop in passing production for the Chargers (as I do), you have to project a significant drop in his receiving numbers. I think he will still be in the top 5, probably in the top 3 TEs, but will not be worth the premium that is currently being paid for him in drafts this year.

Boston:
As for his totals this year, it comes down to whether you think Rivers will be solid or not. I don't think there's any doubts he'll have some struggles. That's pretty much a given for most first year starters. Yet, I also think that he's in a very stable situation and he's had two years to digest the playbook and get a feel for the game. Therefore as long as the O line plays well I think he'll be a little more comfortable than some think.

SoloMatisse:
Last year, the guy holds out and doesn't practice with the team for an extended period of time approaching the season, gets suspended for the 1st game, plays the first several games undoubtedly a little rusty, and still completely dominates. Imagine what a full offseason of workouts and early preseason preparation will do for him. And with all due respect to every other TE in the NFL, none of those guys should be compared to Gates. He's shown he's in a league by himself at TE over the past 2 seasons. Having said that, Ill provide some data comparing Gates upcoming season with Tony Gonzalez' 2001 season....the 1st he played with new starting QB Trent Green. Gonzalez was coming off a monster '00 season in which he had 93 catches for 1203 yards and 9 TDs. These stats are very similar to Gates' '05 production. With Green QBing the team in '01, Gonzalez had 73 catches for 917 yards and 6TDs...quite a drop off. Both TEs have been considered the dominant player at the position for a period, so the comparison between the two here seems to be the most fitting. But that '01 season for Tony G makes one stop and think if Gates has a similar drop off coming up this year. Just some food for thought.

Antonio Gates Projections

SOURCE REC RECYD RECTD

Jason Wood 72 890 7

Message Board Consensus 78 949 9

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