Mike Brown's Thoughts

Joey Galloway experienced a renaissance season in 2005, establishing career highs in both receptions and yardage, and adding 10 touchdowns. Galloway was extremely consistent throughout the season, with only a handful of substandard games. For his efforts, he finished as the #5 WR in terms of fantasy ranking, but he was by far the most valuable receiver in fantasy circles because of how unexpected the ranking was.

The previous season, rookie Michael Clayton took the NFL by storm, posting some of the best numbers a rookie wide receiver has ever had with 1,193 yards and 7 TD. Heading into 2005, most expected Clayton to build upon those numbers and join the league’s very elite. Unfortunately, a preseason knee injury never full healed after surgery and Clayton regressed badly. Luckily for the Bucs, they had a proven and experienced receiving commodity in Galloway to pick up the slack. In Jon Gruden’s offense, one thing that is certain is that his teams will throw the football. And with the team hoisting it downfield as much as they do, Galloway was in a perfect spot to take full advantage of his situation.

Heading into this season, it appears that Clayton is fully recovered from his injury and ready to stake his claim as the team’s #1 passing option. He’s had a terrific off-season, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be all the way back to his pre-injury form. So how will that impact Galloway? Does the return of Clayton mean that there will be less defensive pressure on Galloway, freeing him up to make even more plays? Or will Clayton’s own increase in productivity come at the expense of Galloway’s numbers? Let’s first discuss some of the reasons to expect either an increase, decline, or decrease in Galloway’s value for the upcoming season.

Positives

• Coming off a career-best 83 receptions and 1,287 yards, with 10 touchdowns to boot. It was his first top-10 finish since 1998.
• Since late 2004, Galloway has been a very consistent producer so it’s not as if last season came from nowhere.
• Wide receivers have been consistently productive under HC Jon Gruden’s offensive system, so he could conceivably produce even if he’s not the #1 option.

Negatives

• Galloway will turn 35 during the season, and the list of wideouts who were productive at that age is a short one.
• Third-year man Michael Clayton has re-emerged after a disastrous sophomore campaign. It is quite possible that Clayton will leapfrog Galloway on the depth chart and receive the majority of the looks.
• Galloway remained completely injury-free last season, something that hasn’t always been the case for him. All players have injury risk, but Galloway’s past suggests his may be higher.

Final Thoughts

It takes a lot to head into a season without any bias toward specific players. Obviously, we base much of our decisions on what happened the year before. It’s often the best and most reliable source for basing our predictions. But sometimes, we have to forget about what happened a year ago when a situation is drastically altered.

Last season, fantasy owners had to disregard recent history with regard to Galloway and trust that he was going to keep putting up monster game after monster game. It took a lot for some to acknowledge it, just as there were a number of non-believers in Muhsin Muhammad the previous season. But those of us who recognized that the situation had changed were rewarded. Those are likely to be the same people who recognize that this year has once again changed. Not only is Galloway another year older, but on the flipside Clayton is another year more experienced. Clayton enters his third year, classically a breakout-type season for a wide receiver. Even if Clayton doesn’t fully overtake Galloway as the team’s #1 option, he’ll cut into his stats enough that Galloway owners shouldn’t even consider a repeat performance.

Granted, Galloway’s ADP of 65 shows that most owners are savvy enough to realize that last year was a unique situation that isn’t to be expected again. But I would warn against him even producing to the level he’s being drafted. I’m not expecting Galloway to simply fall apart, but there are enough detracting factors between age, injury, and natural regression in stats that would give me pause to drafting him at that point. Certainly, there is a time and place to take Galloway but I just don’t think I’d go out of my way to grab him ahead of Clayton. I liken it to the situation in New Orleans with Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth. Either guy could conceivably be “the man”, so I’d much rather risk the lower-ranked guy providing value rather than the higher guy regressing and costing me value.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

joffer:
Simms sure seemed to build a chemistry with him last year, there wasn't any dropoff in Joey's #s after Griese went down. He's always been good when given the targets AND could stay healthy. He'll come back down to earth a little in 06, but not all the way down.

Frenchy Fuqua:
Health will always be the #1 issue with Galloway. Gruden loves him and understands what he brings to the TB O. If you knew Joey G would play 16 games in this offense he's probably a top 10 WR again this year. Factor in 2-3 missed games and he's probably somewhere around 20.

imeimex:
If you heard Gruden talk about Galloway last year you can tell how much he loves the guy. There are plenty of clips where Gruden is gushing over Galloway during games and at practices. His numbers will drop a little with Clayton playing better this season. I am not as sold on Chris Simms as most people are but with a lack of other options he will perform very well.

JimmyD:
Galloway will do just fine in that offense and probably finish somewhere in the 20 to 30 range for WR. The big problem is that he's being drafted as that sure fire WR2 when last year he was drafted as WR3 or 4. Drafting him at the WR2 spot is just too much risk for his reward. He'll be good and you could do worse, but his upside was last year. I find it hard to see him account for as much offense as he did last year, just the progress that Clayton/Williams will have should eat a little bit up. I see him getting quite a bit of receptions but not a lot of yards or TDs.

Joey Galloway Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mike Brown	0	0	60	870	5
Message Board Consensus	0	0	67	949	7