Jason Wood's Thoughts

If you're reading this, chances are you have a good idea of Larry Fitzgerald's greatness. In an era of hyperbole, I shudder to use the word "great" but, in this case, I think it's justified.

Consider, through his first two seasons, Fitzgerald ranks:

• 1st all-time for most receptions by a wide receiver
• 9th in receiving yards all-time
• 11th-best receiving TD total all-time
• 9th in fantasy points

Barring injury, Fitzgerald should easily rank among the NFC's top pass catchers for years to come; that much we know. But when you're drafting a receiver in the first three or four rounds, there's a big difference between being the top fantasy receiver or simply a top-12 producer.

Fitzgerald vs. Boldin -- A lot of people are going to spend too much time debating the differences between these two astoundingly good receivers. Yet, I think that's the wrong tact when it comes to assessing Fitzgerald's fantasy value. At the end of the day, both of these guys are far too good to have one significantly outproduce the other. They're both sure handed, both can make people miss in space, and both get targeted early and often. Before obsessing about which of these guys is better, remember that Dennis Green has a long history of delivering multiple fantasy receiving studs each year (i.e., Cris Carter + Jake Reed, Cris Carter + Randy Moss, and now Fitzgerald + Boldin).

The Edgerrin James Factor -- While I don't think Boldin's presence is worth overanalyzing, I DO think the addition of Edgerrin James materially impacts Fitzgerald's outlook in several ways. Last season, the Cardinals simply couldn't run the ball. They ranked dead last in attempts, yards, yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. That's the definition of futility. Regardless of whether you think Edgerrin James can maintain the same effectiveness in Arizona that he did as a Colt, you can be sure he'll significantly improve the Cardinals rushing stats.

• Run/Pass Balance will shift -- James is going to get his carries, whether he averages 3 or 5 yards per rush, you can count on the Cardinals throwing less, and rushing more. Simply put, that means neither Fitzgerald nor Boldin is going to be as targeted this year. Remember, this duo were targeted a combined 336 times last year (51% of the team's total).
• Fitzgerald isn't likely to catch as many red zone TDs -- In the last two years, In the last four seasons, James ranks 3rd in goal line attempts and 2nd in red zone carries. He's paid the big bucks to make plays when the field gets crowded. Considering that half of Fitzgerald's 18 career TDs have been in the red zone, it stands to reason his scoring is more likely to decline than Boldin who is less reliant on scoring in close.

Fitzgerald's Schedule Looks Favorable, Particularly At Crunch Time -- According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Cardinals have a favorable schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed by opposing defenses. In particular, the Cardinals have the best schedule over the last five weeks; as teams look to make a push into their playoffs and take home the title.

Positives

• Larry Fitzgerald is the consumate professional. He's got good size, runs exact routes, has exceptional hands, vision and body control He can score from in close or deep, and is a student of the game.
• Fitzgerald benefits from great coaching, a solid veteran QB and an offensive system that has always produced outstanding fantasy receivers
• The Cardinals schedule is favorable

Negatives

• Fitzgerald lacks great top end speed, and his YPC doesn't measure up to the other all-time greats he's now being compared to
• His ADP is a round or two higher than Anquan Boldin, who should have similar year end numbers
• With Edgerrin James on board, there simply won't enough passes thrown for Boldin and Fitzgerald to remain the most targeted duo

Final Thoughts

Larry Fitzgerald has already established himself as one of the league's best receivers at the ripe old age of 23. With Kurt Warner now backed up by Matt Leinart, heading into the confines of a new stadium, there is little reason to worry that Fitzgerald won't deliver fantasy WR1 numbers in 2006. The only thing one should be conscience of is that he's more likely to fall short of last year's numbers than exceed them. The Cardinals won't throw 670 times this year, not with Edge James on the roster. So draft Fitzgerald in the early going as your top fantasy receiver, but don't reach for him thinking he can be THE best player at his position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

radballs:
It's hard to figure how this new offense will function with Edge get a big piece of the action. Will the receiving share of the pie decrease or will the entire pie get larger. We'll see but I still see the offense throwing a bunch and Fitzgerald is primed to separate himself from Boldin as the number one target on the team.

Sabertooth:
This team is primed for takeoff. Think about last season. Their running game was not only bad, it was basically non-existent coming in at a paltry 71.1 yards per game. Figure on at least a 50% increase in those numbers with Edgerring James in there. More first downs, prolonging drives. This creates more opportunity at both yardage and touchdowns to Boldin and Fitzgerald. I think this team is going to be very reminiscent of the Bengals of '05.

Winning IS Everything:
The only thing that keeps Fitzgerald from being the consensus #1 WR in the league is elite speed. The guy has great hands, runs polished routes and is still very young. The fact he will likely get even better is scary. I think he finishes top 5 for sure and maybe even #1.

Larry Fitzgerald Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	95	1350	8
Message Board Consensus	0	0	94	1310	10