Marc Levin's Thoughts

After trading veteran starting WR Eric Moulds to the Houston Texans, the Bills will expect their 2004 first round pick, WR Lee Evans, to progress into a role as the team's number one receiver. Even without ideal height and size, Evans makes big plays. He has 16 receiving TDs and a healthy 16.5 yards per catch average in his first two years in the NFL. Of course, Moulds was garnering the most attention from opposing pass defenses, so the greatest question regarding Evans for 2006 is whether he will match that production as the Bills' first receiving option.

In projecting fantasy worth, the common equation is that talent plus opportunity equals production. Evans has talent and will certainly see an increase in targets. The Bills were 26th in the league in pass attempts in 2005, yet Moulds had 129 targets in 15 games for an 8.6 targets per game average. Even if the team regresses in pass attempts, Evans will see an increase from his 96 targets in 2005. Expect him to average over 8 targets per game in 2006. With Evans, however, targets alone do not determine his opportunity in the fantasy equation.

In 2004, with Drew Bledsoe as the Bills' starting quarterback, Evans caught 70% of the passes to him. There was a disturbing drop to a 52% reception percentage in 2005. That drop was likely due to the QB carousel between Kelly Holcomb and J.P. Losman. Evans must develop a rapport with both QBs during training camp if he expects success during the regular season.

An additional consideration is that new head coach Dick Jauron, while not averse to throwing the ball (his Chicago Bears averaged 14th in the league in attempts), is exceedingly conservative with the passing game. His Bears were consistently near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt. Considering how often Jauron called for a passing play with the Bears, the team's yardage and passing TD totals were not impressive. Finally, any head coach would fall in love with RB Wilis McGahee, who is clearly the team's top talent and will certainly be the focal point of the Bills' offense. Run-based offense, conservative coaching, inconsistency at QB - those are factors leading to conservatism with projections for Evans' opportunities, regardless of an increase in targets.

Barring injury, Evans will be heavily involved in the team's passing attack and should see plenty of targets in 2006. To be a fantasy force, however, Evans must convert those targets into receptions, yardage, and TDs. Creating those numbers will depend heavily on the quarterback play and the coaching decisions. If a fantasy owner has confidence that either QB will deliver the ball consistently enough for Evans to develop a rapport, or if an owner has confidence that Evans' talent will win out regardless of the passer and regardless of the short passing plays, Evans can make an excellent addition to a fantasy squad as a borderline WR2/WR3.

Positives

• 16 TDs and 16.5 YPR in his first two years as a WR is extremely productive
• He is the undisputed WR1 for the Bills this year and has little to no competition
• Target numbers will likely leap from 92 in 2005 to well over 120 in 2006
• Potentially favorable ADP as the 24th WR could equate to excellent value

Negatives

• Conservative HC Dick Jauron and focal point of offense will be on RB Willis McGahee
• QB inconsistency with JP Losman and Kelly Holcomb
• Disturbing drop in reception percentage from 70% with Drew Bledsoe in 2004 to 52% without Bledsoe in 2005

Final Thoughts

As a final consideration, recent average draft position (ADP) information places Evans as the 24th WR taken, generally somewhere near the bottom of the 6th round in 12-team drafts. In 3-WR and PPR leagues, Evans has tremendous value with that ADP. If you are in a 2-WR league and like to wait until later for a second WR, however, that ADP may actually be a bit too high for optimal value. Do you really want to rely on Evans as your WR2 when there are more reliable WRs available a bit later in the draft - receivers such as Rod Smith, Nate Burleson, Drew Bennett and Joey Porter, who are all available later than Evans, may provide more consistent week-to-week production than Evans, though they may finish lower than Evans in yearly standings. In short, if Evans can replicate his big-play numbers this year - and, more importantly, his TD totals - then selecting him as a WR3 is a very wise move. If his TD numbers regress, his owners will be hard pressed to find weekly value in starting him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KnowledgeReignsSupreme:
He has upside, but I'm not thrilled with the guy heading into 2006. One of those guys that I wouldn't be surprised what he did no matter what, so I won't reach for him early or shun him either. If he's still on the board in the late 20s of WRs, that's not a bad pick.

Q-Bert:
I am a huge fan of Lee Evans. I watched nearly everyone of his college games and was at his first game back after his knee injury. He had a 99 yard touchdown catch where he just flat out smoked the entire defense. But, with all that being said I think some of the projections in this thread are crazy. The Bills offense isn't good. Their quarterbacks are old and mediocre or young and unproven. Not good options. I'm not sure that Moulds leaving is a good thing. It may be difficult for Evans to have to shoulder so much of the burden at WR this year.

SSOG:
According to the current FBG rankings, Chris Chambers is WR11 and Lee Evans is WR22. Personally, I think they got the two rankings reversed. I think Lee Evans presents fantastic value on draft day because people will be too low on his QB situation and too quick to jump on the trendy WRs of the week. The numbers don't lie.

Lee Evans Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Marc Levin	0	0	72	972	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	68	1028	9