Andy Hicks's Thoughts

Braylon Edwards had just had the best game of his short professional game recording 5 catches for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns when he felt a pop in his right knee. It was later confirmed as a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Not only did it cut short a promising rookie season for the Browns first pick in 2005, it will delay his entrance into the 2006 season.

At this stage his return is listed for October, although latest reports are mentioning an earlier return.  Even so club officials have stated he won’t be near 100% until the 2007 season. With the Brown suffering a major preseason blow by losing LeCharles Bentley for the season, the return of Braylon Edwards will be eagerly anticipated.

Where does that leave you if you are considering drafting Braylon Edwards this year?
His current ADP is as WR44. His ADP could swing either way depending on further news out of Cleveland.  Right now, players in good situations who are fully fit entering 2006 are being taken behind Edwards.

Moving away from his injury concerns, Edwards will have 2nd year man Charlie Frye as his QB. Frye only saw major action in the last 5 games of the season, first seeing significant action in the week 13 loss to Jacksonville. This was the game that saw Edwards lost to injury. Of particular note however was that in the limited playing time Frye and Edwards were on the park, just over a half, Frye threw 2 touchdowns from 7 targets, with 5 receptions to Edwards. After that game Frye looked less assured registering 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions from his remaining 4 games. 

Once Edwards returns he also should see competition for targets from 2004 1st rounder Kellen Winslow and free agent addition Joe Jurevicius. By that stage Frye will have worked with Winslow & Jurevicius for months on routes and timing.

Also of concern is the lack of production from the Browns passing game, having ranked in the bottom half of the league in just about every category for the last 3 years.

Positives

• Displayed the ability that warranted his selection with the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft in his rookie season. Further progression can be expected
• In the short period of time he worked with Charlie Frye in week 13, Edwards produced outstanding statistics.
• Latest reports are promising and he may see the field earlier than expected

Negatives

• Almost certain to miss a number of games, placing his worth in a redraft league in doubt
• His knee injury was particularly bad. He had to wait a month for surgery as swelling on his knee delayed the operation.
• The Browns offense led by 2nd year man Charlie Frye is not forecast to move toward the top half of passing production in 2006

Final Thoughts

If you have the roster space Braylon Edwards could produce above his ADP, especially in the 2nd half of the season. Unfortunately that would mean stashing him away on your roster for awhile. If Edwards does not get drafted in your league or is dropped, he will definitely be a popular free agent acquisition as his return date edges closer. He still has the potential to be a star in this league, but we may see very little of that in 2006.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

OZ:
Unless there's a change, it looks like Braylon is only going to play 10 games this year. I'm assuming it will take a week or two to get up to speed. Somewhat ironically, in his rookie year, he started 7 games and played in 10, so the production should look similar for the year. He should improve some, but it's hard to determine at this point.

Cool in the pocket:
Doing a projection for BE now is almost useless. He's barely 6 months removed from his injury and they typically take 1 year. Could he be different? Sure, but the odds are against it. Given Cleveland's situation and the fact that he is their #1WR, I see no reason why Cleveland would want to rush him back. Current ADP has him at WR40 ahead of players like Key, Mark Clayton, Antonio Bryant... Unless training camp brings his injury into a whole different realm, he is really overvalued.

rzrback77:
I imagine in most smaller leagues, he'll go undrafted or will be released after the first week or two when he is not playing. Keep an eye on his anticipated return date and if you need WR depth, grab him a week or two before his return. Well worth that investment.

Braylon Edwards Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Andy Hicks	0	0	45	660	4
Message Board Consensus	0	0	42	570	4