Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Warrick Dunn has found a happy home in the Atlanta Falcons' offense. Any running back that plays behind an offensive line averaging 4.8 yards per carry (2005) is bound to do fairly well. During 2 of the past 3 seasons, Dunn has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry (5.4 during 2003, and 5.1 during 2005) and he's never averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry since joining Atlanta back in 2002.

Dunn is also an excellent receiving back, racking up a minimum of 29 catches during each of the last 3 seasons (29 in 2005, 29 in 2004, and 37 in 2003). He still has his top gear, too, despite being on the wrong side of 30 (he'll be 31 when the season begins) - he's a threat to break one all the way every time he touches the ball. He's played in 16 games for 2 seasons straight, and has never put up less than 1,000 yards combined at any point since joining the Falcons. Over the past 2 years, he's averaged 1518 total yards from scrimmage. Dunn is a complete back, but he has languished outside the top ten among fantasy running backs every year during his career. He just never seems to break into the fantasy elite at his position.

Positives

• Dunn runs behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, and that doesn't look likely to change anytime soon. He'll find plenty of room to roam as teams scramble to cover Michael Vick, Alge Crumpler, the receivers and Dunn, all at the same time.
• Dunn's impressive hands will add to his value in point-per-reception leagues, as he is almost a lock to catch 2 per game.
• The Falcons love to run the ball a lot, so Dunn figures to continue to see around 300 touches as the main running back in Atlanta.

Negatives

• Dunn loses out on goal-line opportunities most of the time, as the team often calls in T.J. Duckett to bull-doze into the end zone. When Duckett isn't bulling his way in, Vick is often diving or scrambling for a score - the combination of Duckett and Vick in the same backfield with Dunn limits his scoring potential. During 2 of the last 3 seasons (2003 and 2005), Dunn had a paltry 3 rushing TDs (and never more than 9 TDs, total, in any season since joining the Falcons).
• Dunn is over 30 - often, players past that line in the sand drop off in performance without prior warning. His age definitely makes Dunn a riskier pick than some of the younger players.

Final Thoughts

Warrick Dunn is one of the most prolific yardage machines in the NFL entering the 2006 season. He is a dual-threat running back who gets lots of opportunities to handle the football. Dunn will have a lot of opportunities to make plays, but is likely to be limited when it comes to scoring potential. Dunn's desirability for any particular fantasy owner is going to depend a lot on the league's rules - in a system that rewards yardage heavily, he is much more valuable than in a basic scoring league. In most systems, he should be a solid #2 fantasy back, but isn't likely to break into the top 10 unless T.J. Duckett goes into the tank during 2006.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

joffer:
Dunn is a pretty safe bet. You've got to wonder when the 31 years and 1970 carries might catch up to him, but I don't think it's this year.

TheDirtyWord:
Of all the seasons to be high on Warrick Dunn, this would be the one. For the first time in perhaps his entire career, he is the unquestioned #1 RB of an NFL team. Last year, his ascension to that status led to a 1400 yard season and as much as the Falcons collapsed during the 2nd half of 2005 - it would be tough to place any blame on Dunn as he still averaged 5.0 YPC during that time.

Warrick Dunn Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mark Wimer	0	1200	5	40	300	2
Message Board Consensus	0	1233	5	30	250	1