Jason Wood's Thoughts

Reuben Droughns isn't a hard guy to figure out, at least in my estimation. Cast away after his rookie year in Detroit, he signed on with Denver and hardly contributed. Through two seasons, he collected a whopping 10 carries for 25 yards (2.5 YPC) and a touchdown. He did throw in 14 receptions for 140 yards and 3 receiving TDs; indicating that this former fullback might have a future in the league as a 3rd down back playing in obvious passing situations.

But nothing in his pedigree prepared us for 2004. Essentially the fifth string option in Denver, somehow, someway he ended up in the lineup and never looked back. By season's end, Droughns had become the latest in a long line of Denver Broncos RBs to go over the 1,000-yard mark.

• 275 carries
• 1240 yards
• 4.5 yards per rush
• 6 rushing TDs
• 32 receptions
• 241 yards receiving
• 2 TDs
• 14th-ranked fantasy RB

But never one to commit to a running back, HC Mike Shanahan let Droughns leave for Cleveland; where he was supposed to battle incumbents Lee Suggs and William Green. During the offseason, HC Romeo Crennel indicated the Browns would favor a committee approach.

Guess again.

Droughns not only led the Browns offensively, he was their rock.

• 309 carries
• 1232 yards
• 4.0 yards per rush
• 2 rushing TDs
• 39 receptions
• 369 yards receiving
• 14th-ranked fantasy RB

Seeing a trend here?

Two seasons in a row, Reuben Droughns was a very good fantasy RB2. So what's changed between 2005 and 2006 that would change expectations?

1) The Charlie Frye Era is born -- The Browns committed to 2nd year Charlie Frye this year by trading Trent Dilfer to the 49ers. Frye, a fearless drop back passer out of Akron, played well under the circumstances last year. He completed almost 60% of his passes and threw 4 TDs (and 6 INTs) in limited action. How will Frye's presence impact Droughns? It really can't hurt, can it? The Browns ranked 27th in passing TDs and 23 in yards last year; any improvement would a) extend drives (giving Droughns more red zone and goal line carries), and b) opposing defenses won't be able to key on Droughns anymore.

2) The Receiving Corps has improved, thanks to health -- Kellen Winslow may actually suit up for the Browns this year. Local boy Joe Jurevicius has signed with the team. Braylon Edwards is on track to return in October. The combination of those events all but ensures that Frye and the passing attack will be more productive. Again, that's a good thing for Droughns.

3) The Offensive Line has improved...er, not so fast -- The Browns weren't expected to have a good offensive line last year; the first under GM Phil Savage and HC Romeo Crennel. Which makes Droughns' 4.0 yards per rush last season impressive. This offseason, the Browns moved aggressively in free agency to add C LeCharles Bentley and OT Kevin Schaffer. They certainly would have improved the line play and, in turn, the fortunes of every Browns skill player. However, at press time, LeCharles Bentley appeared to have significantly injured his knee and was potentially lost for the season. If in fact he's gone for the year, the Browns offensive line should be considered below average yet again; bringing into question whether Droughns can build off his first season in Cleveland.

4) The schedule doesn't look very favorable -- The good news is Cleveland's schedule against the run doesn't appear any more difficult than a year ago. The bad news is the Browns had a tough schedule in 2005. According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Browns have the 8th most difficult fantasy schedule (for RBs) including tough matchups in the pivotal fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 13-16).

5) Can Droughns improve his scoring touch? -- When someone only scores two rushing touchdowns, it has to raise a red flag, regardless of his overall output. Droughns TDs per touch last year (0.6%) was among the worst in recent memory. Of 175 RBs with at least 100 carries in a season (2002-2005), Droughns 2005 output ranked 166th. OUCH. But wait you say, he had 6 TDs a year ago. Well, this is true, but 6 rushing TDs behind that Denver offensive line is just about as abysmal as last year's two rushing TDs. The bottom line is, Droughns is at best an unproven commodity at the goal line. At worst, he's simply not effective.

Putting it all together

Although it's unexciting to suggest a player will maintain the status quo, I think that's the logical stance to take on Droughns for 2006. As a runner, he's shown capable of grinding out the yardage with a solid YPC regardless of his offensive line. If the line can perform as expected (i.e., slightly better than the 2005 version), Droughns should push for 1,200-1,300 rushing yards. He's got little to no competition for touches. But as a scorer, it would be silly to expect a massive jump in TDs. Particularly with a young QB and the lack of an NFL caliber starting center (if LeCharles Bentley is lost for the year). The final piece of the puzzle is Droughns' receiving ability. This could be where we see some upside to his numbers in 2006. He caught 39 receptions a year ago at 9.5 yards per catch. If Charlie Frye checks off to Droughns a lot (not unreasonable for a young QB), Droughns could catch 50+ balls. I'm not projecting that, but it's entirely possible.

Positives

• Droughns ran well last year behind a sub par offensive line with little help from the passing game.
• Droughns has been productive in two distinct systems, and has little competition for the job
• As a receiver, Droughns appears better than average and could provide upside if Charlie Frye checks off to him a lot

Negatives

• The Browns fantasy schedule versus the run

  appears difficult

• LeCharles Bentley may be lost for the season; if that's true, the interior of the line is no better, and possibly worse, than last season
• Charlie Frye is a young QB and defenses may focus on Droughns until Frye can make them pay for that decision

Final Thoughts

Reuben Droughns had a long road to stardom, but he's now firmly on the fantasy radar, having delivered back-to-back RB14 seasons despite playing for two different teams. A fantasy runner contributes in three ways typically...rushing yards, TDs and receiving yards. Droughns appears a good bet to rattle off a ton of rushing yards; and he's an above average receiver. Those two probably are good enough to keep him in the middle of the pack among fantasy RB2s. He would need a major jump in his TD production; which I'm not expecting, to push for top-10 consideration. The bottom line is not to overpay for Droughns, he's not likely to give you a top 5-10 season even under great circumstances; but he's a solid bet in the late 2nd or early 3rd as your 2nd back.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Frenchy Fuqua:
It seems like Droughns is a popular sleeper pick on this board. While Droughns has been light on TDs the past two seasons (8 total) he's quietly been over 1200 yards in each season. Considering the talent surrounding him in Cleveland last year that is a heck of an accomplishment. I am still a bit skeptical about having Droughns as a RB2. I think Charlie Frye's development has/will hurt Droughns numbers significantly. Look at last year, in 11 games with Dilfer, Droughns produced:

211 carries for 941 yards (4.5 AVG) 2TDs
31 receptions for 300 yards (9.7 AVG)

In 5 games started by Frye, Droughns produced:

98 carries for 291 yards (3.0 AVG) 0 TDs
8 catches for 69 yards (8.6 AVG)

Teams will certainly make Droughns their #1 priority and I'm not sure he has enough talent to overcome that.

mlball77:
I see Droughns having another very solid season, but I think that his workload will be decreased a bit and another RB or two will get worked into the mix more in 2006. I think that if Droughns' carries are cut to 260-270 then he may have more in the tank at the end of the year and be able to keep his YPC a bit higher (in 2005, his final 5 games totaled 98 rushes for 291 yards... 2.97 YPC, but it was against some tough D's too).

dcbreber:
I completely agree with the fact that there is no RB on CLE that will take away a big amount of carries from Rueb. That said, he will improve upon his numbers from last year with the chance that Kellen comes back, and the additions of Shaffer (OT) and #00 LeCharles. With the run game plan still in place, RD's projections: 303 att, 1273 yds, 4.2 avg, 5td, 36 rec, 320 yd, 1 td. He should be 10-20 in the RB's but just lacks speed and a good enough offense to get him more TDs. Frye should be good, but he will not be good enough yet to keep the pressure off him.

Reuben Droughns Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	315	1250	6	36	315	1
Message Board Consensus	287	1138	6	34	264	1