Jason Wood's Thoughts

Donald Driver is perpetually under appreciated in fantasy circles; and savvy fantasy owners should use that to their advantage yet again in 2006. According to our ADP data, Driver is being drafted 17th among receivers. This for a guy who has finished no worse than 13th in his last three healthy seasons.

• 2002 -- 70 receptions for 1,065 yards and 9 TDs (WR10)
• 2003 -- Injured...limited to 621 yards
• 2004 -- 84 receptions for 1,208 yards and 9 TDs (WR10)
• 2005 -- 86 receptions for 1,221 yards and 5 TDs (WR13)

So how does a guy coming off back-to-back 1,200 yard seasons, as well as career highs for receptions and yards in 2005, get no respect from draftniks?

Because Driver isn't your typical star wideout. As a 7th round pick out of Alcorn State, he barely factored into the Packers game plan for years. He's not ostentatious, doesn't bust out the Sharpie after a spectacular touchdown and, perhaps most importantly, plays on a team with Brett Favre at quarterback. Brett Favre has been so good for so long, that his receiving corps has often been an afterthought. Whether Favre had a Pro Bowler like Sterling Sharpe or an also-ran like Bill Schroeder, you could still pencil in 3,500 yards and 30 TDs it seemed. So Driver's productivity has largely been credited to Favre's talents, not Driver's.

Whether you buy into that assessment or not, who cares if you're looking for solid fantasy output for a bargain? The minute Brett Favre agreed to return to Green Bay, Driver was all but assured of another good season.

Driver can deliver regardless of his supporting cast. Two years ago, Driver had 1,200+ yards and nine touchdowns playing second fiddle to a healthy Javon Walker. Many wondered if Driver could maintain that level of productivity once Walker was lost in the preseason last year. Well, guess what? He finished the season WR13 and had more catches and yards despite having virtually no one else for opposing defenses to key on. This year, Driver is in a great position. He's CLEARLY Favre's top receiving option, but the offense should have more balance as Samkon Gado, Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport return healthy.

The schedule looks favorable -- According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Packers WR corps have the 3rd easiest schedule in terms of projected fantasy points allowed from opposing defenses.

With a new coaching staff in place, Favre is going to look toward those he trusts -- Brett Favre decided to return this year, but it wasn't an easy decision. After a disastrous 4-12 season, where Favre threw an astounding 29 INTs, many wondered if he had the desire to make another run. Ultimately, despite the Packers bringing in new coaches and very few notable free agents on offense, Favre re-upped. Logic dictates that he's going to rely heavily on the players he knows and trusts. Among the Packers receivers, that leaves only TE Bubba Franks and Donald Driver. Driver led the league in 3rd down conversions last year (26 catches for first downs), and was among the league leaders in yards after the catch (YAC). If Driver isn't one of the most targeted receivers in the league, it will be a mild surprise.

Positives

• Driver has turned himself into the perfect WCO receiver. He runs crisp routes, has a knack for making yards after the catch, and can make tough catches in close (witness his 26 catches on 3rd down) or break them deep (9 plays of 25+ yards)
• The Packers locked Driver up to a new long-term contract, and he will clearly be Brett Favre's top target this season
• Driver's current ADP suggests he is, yet again, undervalued

Negatives

• At 6'0", 177 pounds, Driver isn't the biggest receiver and can be outmuscled by physical cornerbacks
• If Brett Favre fails to bounce back from last year's 20 TD, 29 INT showing, Driver will be hard pressed to improve upon last year's five TDs

Final Thoughts

If you're in a competitive league, building a championship team is no easy task. While there's inevitably some luck involved, your goal on draft day is to maximize the potential value of each pick. To that end, Donald Driver should be on your short list if his current ADP holds throughout the preseason. Driver has finished 10th, 10th, and 13th in each of his last three healthy seasons. He is Brett Favre's only reliable receiver on a team with a questionable defense and uncertain running game. Favre will throw the ball a lot, and Driver will be the most targeted of his options. As long as Driver stays healthy, he should easily outperform his projected draft position. Will he finish as a top-5 receiver? Probably not, but his upside is greater than his downside; so don't hesitate to call his name on draft day as your ideal WR2.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

AeroFANatic:
Driver is the Rodney Dangerfield of Fantasy Football. Whatever he does, he gets NO respect. With Walker out last year, he put up some solid #'s. In 2006, with a still questionable defense....Favre will be gunslinging from behind a lot this year. Driver figures to be the beneficiary of this production.

CalBear:
I agree that Driver tends to fly under the radar. He's not flashy, he's got an average-sized body, and he doesn't do TD dances. That hasn't kept him from being in the top 13 WRs three of the past four years, the only exception being his injury year. He's also coming off consecutive 1200-yard seasons.

Winning IS Everything:
I think the problem with Driver is the "boring" factor. He is not Randy Moss, Terrell Owens or Chad Johnson. He is not shown in the first ten minutes of Sportcenter, though he produces just as much as most of them. I think most people would rather take the chance on a "breakthrough" or "High ceiling" type of player as opposed to the Steady Eddie type. Even as I type this in support of Driver, if I had to chose Driver in the 10-15 WR range it would be tough to pull the trigger.

Renegades of Funk:
I have one concern about Driver. If GB has a season similar to last year I see a possibility Rogers gets thrown in around FF Playoff timing. I don't think this is a given, but definitely something I have considered. If the team struggles and Favre lets everyone know 2006 will be his last season the coaches would have some pressure to find out what they have in Rogers. On the other hand there would also be pressure by fans to see Favre play out the string so it could go either way.

Donald Driver Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	85	1200	8
Message Board Consensus	0	0	82	1188	8