Mike Brown's Thoughts

Corey Dillon arrived in New England with much fanfare in 2004, hoping to make a difference in a rushing attack that the previous season had featured the league’s 27th-ranked running game. The arrival, and subsequent success, of Dillon vaulted the Patriots into the very elite in the league (ranked 7th in 2004).

Dillon brought with him a reputation as a malcontent and a clubhouse problem, but the entire year in New England he was, from all accounts, a model teammate and person. Not only did he produce on the field; he appeared to really take to the “team-first” atmosphere surrounding him, as his terrific postseason helped lead the Patriots to a second consecutive Super Bowl title.

Entering 2005, Dillon was rated by many as a first-round caliber fantasy back, despite several warning signs. For one, he carried the ball a career-high 345 times in ’04. Only one other time had he even carried the ball as many as 320 times. So there was an obvious “wear and tear” issue. Second, he was turning 31 early in the season, typically an age where one really has to worry about running backs breaking down.

It’s tough to call Dillon’s 2005 season as a complete failure, since he did finish as the 16th best running back in fantasy football. He tied career highs with twelve rushing touchdowns and thirteen touchdowns overall, and scored six touchdowns over the final four games of the regular season (fantasy playoff time). Still, his 733 yards was the second-lowest of his pro career, and his 3.5 yards per carry was a career worst by far. Looking inside the stats, one can see that there was really one primary reason why Dillon managed to salvage his fantasy season. Of those 12 rushing touchdowns, a whopping 9 of them came from inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. If not for those short-yardage games, Dillon’s season might be regarded as an all-time fantasy bust. Of course, they do count in the stat sheet – but they also serve to help mask what was actually a very poor season by Dillon.

The Patriots used their first round pick in April’s draft on Minnesota RB Laurence Maroney. He is expected to play a significant role in the Patriots offense (teams don’t typically plan on benching their first rounders), and that will likely cut into Dillon’s playing time. Since Dillon can’t reasonably be expected to suddenly regain his former level of ability, the big question becomes: with Dillon slipping in most drafts, will be still live up to his ADP by snagging those short-yardage scores? And if not, will he produce enough yardage-wise to even be worth adding to fantasy rosters?

Positives

• Dillon will still likely receive the majority of any short-yardage carries. With an offense like New England’s, there should be ample opportunities to score from close range.
• Dillon claims to be recovered from the ankle injury that hindered him for much of last year. If that is truly the case, then he may have a legit shot at retaining his job.
• Dillon is being selected as the 23rd running back on average. If he is able to revert even close to form, you’ll be landing a big value pick in the fourth round.

Negatives

• Injury has curtailed Dillon’s productivity in two of the past three seasons. At 32 years of age, this may be getting to be more the norm than the exception for Dillon.
• The presence of Maroney is an obvious threat to Dillon’s job security. There is no reason to spend a pick on a first round running back if the team doesn’t feel the need to upgrade.
• Dillon hasn’t been much of a receiving threat for years, and on days when he doesn’t score, his fantasy contributions are likely to be very minimal.

Final Thoughts

I can’t advocate spending even a moderately high pick on Dillon. At the point in the draft where I’d be willing to select him, I’m certain he won’t be there. There will always be someone willing to bet that he’ll be “the guy” and revert close to form. I, however, believed Dillon was headed for a steep decline going into last year and now I’m completely sold. If he does get much work, it’ll be as a short-yardage/goal line back. And I simply don’t see more short yardage scores coming his way. The Pats offense is very good, but nine touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line for a guy who had only scores 9 touchdowns total three times before is a bit much to ask. And even if Dillon does score a bundle of touchdowns (I have him getting seven), it’s tough to know when they’re coming. The last thing you want is to find yourself in a playoff game where Dillon carries 10 times for 30 yards and no scores. And I think there will be plenty of those games coming.

Considering the addition of Maroney, Dillon’s lack of receiving skills, and his overall decline in performance last season, I wouldn’t touch Dillon anywhere before the fifth round. And even that is based on not knowing much of Maroney at the pro level. And if I see what I think I’m going to see during training camp (a changing of the guard from Dillon to Maroney), my opinion and projections of Dillon will likely drop even more.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Jason Wood (FBG Staff):
Corey Dillon is currently has an ADP of RB23, despite a material skills erosion in 2005. Last season's YPC of 3.5 was nearly a yard below his prior career average, and was the worst single season mark of his career. He also missed four games, the most of his career, and will turn 32 this season. The Patriots offensive line lost another piece (Ashworth) and the team added rookie powerhouse Laurence Maroney.

Would you honestly feel comfortable drafting Dillon as a RB2? Many will point to last year's RB16 ranking (in 12 games played) as evidence that he's still valuable. But his 12 TD rushes is contraindicative to his career TD per touch mark. If we're to assume some regression (upward) in his YPC and yardage, you also have to assume some regression (downward) in his TD output.

jpapadub:
I think that everyone is pretty much forecasting conservatively here. Maroney will be good in the future, but he is coming in fresh off of one of the NCAAs best O-lines and although he is pretty much NFL-ready, he will be experiencing a bit of a learning curve. Dillon carries the experience and ability of a proven veteran RB and when healthy has proven to be a top 10 RB. Dillon has been training hard and has at the very least one more good season before Maroney is ready to carry the lion's share of the load.

David Yudkin (FBG Staff):
While you say that there's no evidence to show that Dillon has any lingering injuries, I would say the opposite. There's no evidence to say that he will do any better this year than last year. Dillon was not himself last season, but there has not been a reason given or an injury disclosed. He was listed most of the year on the injury report with a calf injury, but calf injuries normally don't linger all season long especially if you rested it and didn't play on it (which he did in the middle of the season).

I would be higher on Dillon if it game out that he played the whole season with a high ankle sprain or a broken bone in his foot or something that we could point to as something that could heal.

And if Dillon were to miss time and Maroney stepped in and did very well, Dillon might assume the part time role and not Maroney.

Corey Dillon Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mike Brown	180	700	7	12	90	0
Message Board Consensus	205	801	7	18	134	1