Mike Brown's Thoughts

For someone who quietly limped out of 2005, Davis sure is in the news quite a bit so far in 2006.

Of course, much of it has very little to do with Davis, but rather the player who was expected to join (or replace) him – USC RB Reggie Bush. With Bush in town, Davis’ role was unclear, to say the least. Would he share carries? Would he be the backup? Would the team use them in tandem? Bush was certainly an interesting fit, if for no other reason than the fact that he seems to be a much better version of Davis, with neither player offering much of a change-of-pace from the other guy. Still, just about everyone expected the Texans, owners of the top pick in April’s draft, to select Bush with the top spot. Yet in a colossal shocker that may be felt for years, Houston instead opted to draft DE Mario Williams.

With no Reggie Bush (or any other big-name RB, for that matter) in town, the job once again belongs solely to Davis. He’ll look to rebound from a disappointing 2005 campaign. When he was on the field, he certainly produced. Davis finished 2005 as the #9 RB in football in terms of fantasy points per game (and was a couple of first down runs away from being #7). Yet he managed to play just 2/3 of the season, missing a lot of time at the end after injuring his knee. Davis already had something of an injury-prone tag attached to him after his first two years, but 2005 was the first time he ever missed significant time. The fact that Houston has brought in very little help during the off-season means one of two things: A) The Texans are not being careful enough, and could end up with basically no running game, or B) The Texans have that much faith in Davis and his ability to come back healthy.

Will he be motivated to succeed by the team’s flirtation and courtship of Bush? Or will he feel too much pressure to be the all-world running back the fans thought they were getting as recently as six weeks ago?

Positives

• The Texans had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise running back in USC standout Reggie Bush. Due to various reasons, the team passed on him to select DE Mario Williams. If the team was still that concerned with the health of Davis’ knee, it’s unlikely they’d have passed on Bush. Not only that, but the team didn’t select another back until the second day of the draft. This is Domanick Davis’ show.
• Despite missing five games, Davis put up his typically terrific stats. He gained 1,313 total yards from scrimmage, a pace that would put him at close to 2,000 yards over a full 16-game schedule.
• The Texans offense may not be much better, but it should be better. The addition of offensive-minded HC Gary Kubiak should elevate the productivity, and with newcomer Eric Moulds lining up at wideout, that’s one more weapon to help alleviate the pressure on Davis.
• Davis is an outstanding receiver. Despite missing 8 games over his career, he has the fourth-highest reception total amongst running backs, with 154. What that means is that even on days when he can’t find running room, he is still a prime factor in the passing game.

Negatives

• Davis suffered a knee injury late last season that cost him the final few games and parts of others. The missed time resulted in Davis failing to eclipse the 1,000-yard plateau for the first time in his career. Not only that, but the injury required arthroscopic surgery. His rehab has produced very little news of note, but it is telling that as of mid-May, it was still bothering him enough to limit him in practices.
• If the Texans offense (particularly the passing game) improves, it could come at the expense of Davis’ stats. Veteran WR Eric Moulds was signed to take some pressure of #1 WR Andre Johnson. Moulds provides the best #2 threat the Texans have ever had, and if he sees more passes thrown his way than the previous #2 guys, Davis could see fewer of those drop-offs that he’s become accustomed to.
• Davis’ injury-prone history suggests that he may see an overall decrease in the number of touches he gets, regardless of how well anyone else plays. RB Antowain Smith was brought in for short-yardage duty, and that role could expand to include goal-line situations as well.

Final Thoughts

I’m a firm believer that Davis will use the flirtation of Reggie Bush as a motivating factor to success in 2006. Motivation will only take a player so far, of course, and it’s hardly the primary reason I’m high on Davis. My belief in Davis lies in my belief of NFL front offices.

Sure, teams have made mistakes on the draft before. I would certainly know that as a San Diego fan. But I just don’t think the Texans would’ve let Bush slip through their fingers if they didn’t feel Davis was up to the call of playing, and playing well, this season. They would never have gone into a season with a new head coach and put said coach behind the proverbial eight-ball without a running game. If they’re sold on Davis as an every-down featured back, and they believe he’ll be 100% healthy for the season, that’s good enough for me.

What’s adding to my boost of Davis is the value that can be attained by drafting him. He’s being taken as the #12 running back on average, behind such players as Willis McGahee and Cadillac Williams. If the news on Davis is positive over the summer, his ADP will likely rise a bit – but he should still be able to be obtained for good value somewhere in the early second round. Sure, there’s a risk involved to drafting him. But considering he did more in less time than Williams, and produced far better on a game-by-game basis than McGahee, his upside is certainly just as high.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

H.K.:
The Good:
- Texans did not draft Reggie Bush
- Carr still at QB means plenty more passes coming DD's way
- Moulds addition at WR opposite AJ should help spread the field and create running room

The Bad:
- Davis has not played an entire season as a pro (IIRC, he didn't do it in college either)
- New HC, offensive line still undergoing transition, and Texans overall are not a very good team
- Addition of A.Smith and Lundy: could he lose GL carries?

TheFanatic:
It's make or break time for [Dom Davis]. If [Reggie] Bush does anything in N.O. and DD sits out a game or two the city of Houston will be rioting in the streets calling for DD's head on a pike. If he doesn't put up solid numbers behind an improved line and more playmakers to take the focus off of him then the Texans will be grabbing someone early in the draft at RB in 2007 or in free agency.

Domanick Davis Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mike Brown	288	1224	7	64	550	5
Message Board Consensus	256	1031	7	46	401	2