Jason Wood's Thoughts

Daunte Culpepper fell in manure and came up roses.

The Manure

A year ago, with Randy Moss no longer in his arsenal, all eyes were on Culpepper. Could the $100 million, 3-time Pro Bowler continue to put up MVP like numbers without Moss as the ultimate safety valve? Some said YES (myself included) and recommended him vigorously to fantasy readers. Others said NO and begged people to steer clear. Well, seven games into last season it was quite clear that the nay-sayers were the smart ones. In seven starts, Culpepper was ineffective:

• 139 completions
• 216 attempts
• 64% completion percentage
• 1,564 yards
• 6 TDs
• 12 INTs
• 5 fumbles

And then, the cherry on top of the rotten sundae, he tore not one, not two, but three knee ligaments in Week 8 and was lost for the season.

The Roses

The Minnesota Vikings overhauled the coaching staff, ending the Mike Tice era and ushering in the Brad Childress era. Childress, a long-time Andy Reid assistant, is installing a balanced version of the West Coast offense in Minnesota. There was some question whether this played into Culpepper's strengths. As Culpepper rehabbed his knee, he sensed an opportunity to leverage the Minnesota overhaul and demanded a new contract. Yes, a guy with a busted knee, coming off a woeful season, and already in possession of a $100 million deal wanted a new contract. Meanwhile he wouldn't come up to Minnesota to continue his rehab and work with the new coaching staff; preferring instead to stay in his home state of Florida. The writing was on the wall, Culpepper and the Vikings weren't going to co-exist for much longer.

Enter Nick Saban.

The Bill Belichick disciple turned division rival as head coach of the Dolphins was looking for a franchise QB. In his mind, a proven QB was all that was missing from turning the Dolphins into Super Bowl contenders. He toyed with Drew Brees but ultimately decided that Daunte Culpepper was the guy to exercise the ghosts of Dan Marino.

If you're in a keeper league, this is all you need to hear to feel pretty good about acquiring Culpepper's services. But if you're in redraft leagues like most of us, there are still some unanswered questions.

• 1) How is the offensive line? -- Hudson Houck took over the offensive line a year ago and the results were immediate. After allowing 52 sacks in 2004, the Dolphins allowed a mere 26 last season (4th best in the league). If his past history is any indication, the Dolphins should be in line for further improvement in this, Houck's second season at the helm. To help facilitate that improvement, the Dolphins signed mammoth LJ Shelton, veteran guard Bennie Anderson and rookie Joe Toledo. While this unit won't be mistaken for Houck's historic Cowboys line of the early 90s, it's got some depth and talent.

• 2) How is Culpepper's knee? -- Any QB with a knee injury would be concerning. Proper mechanics, particularly planting and throwing are impossible on a pained knee. But, in Culpepper's case, it's even more significant because of his running prowess. Culpepper has run for 2,471 yards and 29 TDs and his rushing totals have accounted for 22% of his fantasy value. At press time, Culpepper was participating in Dolphins training camp. Although some observers noted Culpepper was tentative, that's to be expected. Right now, surprising as it may be, Culpepper appears on track for the start of the season. IF (a big IF), he continues to progress in camp, Culpepper's ADP is sure to escalate over the month of August.
  

• 3) Will Culpepper run anymore? -- A great many hybrid QBs eventually rely less on their legs and more on their arms. Steve McNair won an MVP by becoming a pinpoint passer. Donovan McNabb has enjoyed his best output as his rushing totals have declined. Will Culpepper follow suit? Interestingly, Culpepper is already a very accurate passer (career 64.4%), unlike some of his mobile brethren who started off as subpar passers (in terms of completion percentage) and then improved over time. Given his knee, Culpepper probably will be less inclined to tuck it and run. But that's a big part of his game and fantasy value. The days of 10 rushing TDs (2002) are long gone, I'm sure, but it would be a mistake if the Dolphins failed to utilize his 240-pound frame at the goal line where applicable.

• 4) Is the receiving corps good enough? -- Chris Chambers is considered an elite caliber receiver in many circles. He's no Randy Moss but certainly good enough to warrant consideration as a WR1 for a solid passing team. Beyond Chambers, the Dolphins situation is less enticing. Marty Booker is a serviceable veteran has seen his reception total decline from 100 in 2001 to just 39 catches last year. He's also scored only 4 touchdowns in his two seasons as a Dolphin. Beyond Booker, rookie Derek Hagan is pushing Wes Welker for the #3 role. If you've seen Hagan play at ASU, you know that's not exactly a good thing. Hagan could be productive down the road, but he's quite raw. Beyond the WR corps, Randy McMichael is a good, if not great receiving tight end. And Ronnie Brown, this year's workhorse back, has excellent receiving skills out of the backfield. Much like the offensive line situation, while Culpepper doesn't have as good a situation as he did in Minnesota, it's still good enough to generate solid fantasy productivity.

• 5) The coaching staff -- Scott Linehan did well as Nick Saban's offensive coordinator last year. Unfortunately he did so well that it earned him a head coaching position in St. Louis. Mike Mularkey, late of the Bills, takes over the offense. Mularkey has the nickname, Inspector Gadget, given his penchant for elaborate trick plays. That aside, he is very much a proponent of a balanced offensive attack. Some critics have pointed to Mularkey's history in Pittsburgh and Buffalo as an indication that he runs a lot and doesn't throw much. Yet, a closer look suggests otherwise. When he took over the Steelers offense in 2001, Kordell Stewart was at the helm and Cowher-ball was in full effect. But over the next two years (with Tommy Maddox at the helm), the Steelers averaged 542 passing attempts. In Buffalo, Mularkey simply never had a QB good enough to warrant throwing more. Don't discount the notion that Culpepper will throw a fair amount (520-550 times as a team) as long as the defense and running game do their parts.

Positives

• Culpepper is a far better passer than people give him credit; he has a higher career completion percentage than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre.
• In the early part of training camp, Culpepper is practicing in two-a-days; a strong indication that his knee really will be ready for the start of the season
• The offensive line, coached by Hudson Houck, made major strides last year and if it continues to improve, should keep Culpepper insulated from a regular pounding

Negatives

• Culpepper tore not one, not two, but three knee ligaments. There's no much precedent for someone coming back from that kind of injury and playing at an elite level right away
• Mike Mularkey's offensive resume isn't as compelling as last year's OC, Scott Linehan
• In order to roster Culpepper, you'll probably need to draft him as a top five or six QB assuming his ADP continues to rise as training camp progresses

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, if you think Culpepper can stay healthy for most of the season; I can see how he's an intriguing option at his current ADP. That said, you can be certain that if he continues to participate in two-a-days; his ADP will rise by the time most of us have our drafts. So at what point does the reward balance out the risk? Would I take him as the third or fourth QB off the board? NO; his knee is too much of a risk. Would I take him as QB8-QB9-QB10? I think a very compelling case could be made. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Musesboy:
Daunte Culpepper has a lot to overcome this year. He suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8 last season when his ACL, MCL and PCL were all damaged in a tackle while playing against the Panthers.

Culpepper is reportedly well ahead of schedule and it is even possible that he will be ready for the opening game of the season. I am wary of those reports as almost everything at this time of year is given a positive spin, but he was certainly said to be performing well in camp.

At 29 years of age, he should be entering his prime. It remains to be seen whether he will start the season and I would imagine that the Dolphins will not rush him if he is not ready. They must surely look at him as the future of the franchise for the next five years.

In addition to the challenge of rehabilitation, Culpepper and the rest of the Dolphins will be learning to adapt to Mike Mularkey's offensive scheme. Culpepper will also have to adjust to his new targets. If Chris Chambers was capable of 1100 yards and 11 TDs with Gus Frerotte under center, I would consider him a very good target for Culpepper. Booker is another capable receiver that has posted 100 receptions in a season and reached 1000 yards twice without ever having a good quarterback to help him. McMichael is a good option at TE.

lawyer:
In 2000, Culpepper threw for 3937 yards, 33 TD's, and 16 Int's. He followed up that stellar sophomore year with a 2612 yard, 14 TD, 13 Int season, of which he played 11 games. In 2002, he had another bad season, but got better. In 2003, he had a pretty good season. 2004 was an OUTSTANDING year for Culpepper. 2005, obviously, sucked. So maybe 2006 with be an upswing year for him, but still not too good. I don't think that this is actually a viable theory, just throwing it out there.

In Miami, Culpepper will be blessed with a very underrated WR in Chris Chambers, a very good TE in Randy McMichael, and a very good running back in Ronnie Brown. Hopefully, these players will be able to fill the void that the departure of Randy Moss left in Culpepper's game, and he'll be able to return to top form. I don't need to remind anyone that in the year before last, Culpepper threw for a 69.2% Comp. Pct., 4717 yards, 39 TD's, and 11 Int's. He's obviously one of the top QB's in the game and I think he has a great chance to prove that last year was a fluke.

s1eepinglionhart:
Whether he was indeed a product of playing alongside Randy Moss remains to be seen, as he only had 7 games to adjust to a radically shifted offense without Moss and without his Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan. With Troy Williamson struggling as a rookie (did we REALLY expect him to have the type of rookie season Moss had?) and having no chemistry built with Culpepper, it's clear Daunte missed Randy last season but not clear as to whether Daunte is a one trick pony.

What I see in Miami, however, reminds me greatly of the environment Culpepper thrived in during the 2004 season. He's running a Scott Linehan designed offense with slight modifications. He's got a freak of an athlete in Chris Chambers (much like Randy Moss), an amazing tight end in McMichael (He's upper echelon, better than Wiggins), and a running back in Ronnie Brown that puts the trio of O. Smith, M. Moore, and M. Bennett to shame.

Cool in the pocket:
What would be a great situation for me personally is for him to continue to rehab ahead of schedule, get glowing reports and be ready for opening day. He'd probably see a nice shot up wards on his ADP as another poster mentioned. Since I don't trust him as a QB1, this would force me to go after a solid QB2 ahead of where I'd like to. If he gets an ADP boost, other managers may reach for him, taking that risk away from me and allowing me to get more value out of a QB in the same tier. If you could somehow get him as a QB2 however...

Daunte Culpepper Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3300	22	13	110	2
Message Board Consensus	3178	21	16	209	2