Andy Hicks's Thoughts

Affectionately nicknamed Captain Chaos by his teammates due to his off the field activities, Cooley is one of a significant group of young tight ends making a big impact on the playing field. If you drafted Chris Cooley last year, chances are you were pleasantly surprised by his production. In almost every league Cooley was taken after at least 12 other TEs were off the board. He produced a stunning 71 receptions for 774 yards, with 7 touchdowns along the way; good enough to rank 4th last year.

There have been an abundance of changes this offseason that could impact Chris Cooley’s performance one way or another. From a slight positional change, to a new offensive coordinator, in addition to the usual addition/subtraction game played by NFL teams in the offseason, figuring out how Cooley does this year is not as easy as some of his counterparts.

Cooley has been moved to the traditional tight end position from the H-Back role he was used in last year. Cooley was used as a TE in most fantasy leagues, but was on the Pro Bowl ballot as a fullback, something that bemused Cooley and probably cost him a Pro Bowl berth. There will be no misconceptions this year. To add to the positional shuffles, Mike Sellers was moved from tight end to fullback in a move that could reduce the contribution Sellers makes in the passing game and in turn increase Cooley’s role.

Al Saunders is the new offensive coordinator after being lured from the Chiefs with a bag full of cash. Saunders had Tony Gonzalez in Kansas City and utilized him as his No.1 option in the passing game. With Santana Moss here, it’s unlikely Cooley will fully complement the stats Tony Gonzalez accumulated, but it isn’t out of the realms of possibility he could come close. As the only starting receiver over 6 feet tall on the roster, Cooley easily could dominate in the red zone. Washington TEs combined for 15 TDs last season, with Cooley netting seven of them. With the departure of Robert Royal and Mike Sellers unlikely to duplicate his seven touchdown effort, Cooley could see a boost here. The signing of Christian Fauria is unlikely to have a major impact. For a start he’ll be 35 years old shortly after the season begins, and he only exceeded two touchdowns once in his 11 year career.

It has been mentioned that Cooley will be sent downfield more often this year which could lead to fewer receptions, but more yards. "I'm mostly excited about what's going to happen for our offense," he said. "There should be a lot of opportunities to make plays. It'll be the type of offense that gets huge chunks of yardage down the field, even more than we have in the past."

The Redskins have added Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle El and Christian Fauria to the receiving corps. Gone are Robert Royal and possibly David Patten. That’s a definite improvement in the passing game. Lloyd and Randle El will battle for the No.2 role, but either way both should easily eclipse the production made by the David Patten, James Thrash and Taylor Jacobs combo last year. After ranking 4th in rushing attempts last year, while only 23rd in passing attempts, there could be a significant shift in balance this year in the Redskins offense. Crucial to this is the quarterback. Having lost Patrick Ramsey in the offseason, Washington will need to rely on veteran Mark Brunell, who enjoyed a renaissance last year, and 2nd year man Jason Campbell, who has yet to attempt a regular season pass. With Brunell’s age and injury history a definite question mark and Campbell’s complete inexperience, drafting any Redskin receiver comes with significant risks, no matter what the upside.

Positives

• Cooley is a young tight end who has yet to reach his peak, continued improvement could escalate him to the elite
• With new offensive coordinator in town, Al Saunders, Cooley could approach the stats Tony Gonzalez enjoyed at Kansas City
• Cooley moving downfield more often should boost his yards per catch, whereby he could approach a 1000-yard season

Negatives

• The introduction of Antwaan Randle El, Brandon Lloyd and Christian Fauria could cause a hit on Cooley’s numbers. Either the pie gets bigger or some players are going to see reduced stats. The likely candidates if there is decreased production are Santana Moss and Chris Cooley
• The quarterback position is shaky. Risk must be evaluated when drafting Cooley (or Moss, Randle El or Lloyd)
• His off the field lifestyle could impact his on field performance, if he fails to mature

Final Thoughts

Chris Cooley is a definite starter in leagues that require TEs. Where he gets drafted will be crucial. Since he ranked 4th last year, but is unlikely to be drafted that highly, he could offer value. In a deep group of TEs, patience could be rewarded if Cooley falls. His name isn’t among the sexiest at the position, but it’s production that counts. Cooley has in his favor an offensive coordinator who knows how to use a good tight end, an offense that isn’t afraid to go downfield and a seemingly well balanced attack. Cooley also looks like the best red zone option on the team. It is however possible, maybe even likely that Washington struggles at quarterback this year. If that’s the case, Cooley suffers. With a larger array of weapons it’s also possible that Cooley’s name doesn’t get called as often. Cooley has definite upside this year, but a significant downside exists. Plan accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Rev:
Cooley only received 103 targets last season and averaged less than 11 yards/reception. He made the best of his targets, hauling in 71 of them. Next season, the Skins look to use him on more long pass routes in an attempt to get him down the field, which means more yards per catch. They also plan to split him out periodically, I believe. So, despite the incoming WR talent, I expect Cooley's targets to remain about the same, or maybe go up about 1 or 2 per game. I expect upper 70s in receptions with about 14 yards per reception.

DCThunder:
Look back at the numbers for Clint Didier during the Gibbs I days. Cooley is the new Didier, the deep ball catching TE/H back. He'll go in motion from the H-back spot and cut up into the slot and run a deep post or skinny post down the middle of the field. Sellers is the blocking/goal line TE, a la Donny Warren or Doc Walker.

DocNiner52:
I too believe that Moss' numbers will be affected a little more than Cooley's this year with Lloyd and Randle El coming in. I think his total receptions will drop some but his yardage will go up if according to their plan of getting bigger chunks of yards down the field comes to fruition. I think he'll still be an excellent red zone target and I can see his numbers improving from last year. I say he ends up a top 5 TE at years end.

redman:
First of all, I haven't seen where Gibbs is surrendering play-calling to Saunders. As is typical of Gibbs, he's going to delegate a lot, but still maintain final say on things like that. Saunders is simply redesigning the playbook.

Second, Saunders loves to use the TE...except when he doesn't. The '99 Rams rarely bothered with their TE. Saunders loves to use multiple targets. It so happens that his best weapon (as measured by ability to create mismatches) in KC was Gonzo, but he'll use what he's given.

Chris Cooley Projections

SOURCE	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Andy Hicks	64	815	8
Message Board Consensus	63	751	7