Mike Brown's Thoughts

In two seasons of his “second” career with the Jets, Laveranues Coles has been the definition of consistency. Granted, that doesn’t mean he’s been productive – merely consistent. In two seasons, he’s had just one game where he failed to catch at least three balls. On the flip side, he’s had just one game where he tallied at least 13 fantasy points.

All that means is that we’ve established that as number one receivers go, Coles has been very mediocre. If he was consistently finishing with the 1,200 yards and 6 TD he registered earlier in his career, fantasy owners would be pleased. But despite scoring six times last year, he managed just 845 yards, his lowest total since his rookie season.

There are a multitude of factors for Coles’ drop-off, from poor quarterback play to unimaginative coordinators to a turf toe injury that has lingered over multiple seasons. While there are valid reasons for his drop-off in production, most of them out of Coles’ control, fantasy owners need answers and not excuses. Will Coles revert back to his 2001-2003 form? In the Jets possibly anemic offense, is it even possible?

Positives

• Coles is the no-doubt #1 WR on the Jets heading into the season. With mediocre option Justin McCareins lined up across the field, Coles knows he will see his share of passes in any offensive system.
• With RB Curtis Martin hobbled, the Jet running game may not be able to take pressure off the passing game. While this would normally be viewed as a negative, it does mean the team could lean on Coles even more heavily.
• Despite posting a substandard season, Coles still put up a 73-845-5 season. Mediocre? Yes. Horrible? No.

Negatives

• Coles finished up 2005 as the 31st best fantasy WR, but is being drafted at WR27. The fact that he is being drafted higher than his performance means there are at least a decent handful of people who think he’ll bounce-back to pre-2005 form. If you are one of them, you’ll have to likely take him at a poor value.
• The Jets QB situation should be improved, but there are obviously no guarantees. The only reason it may improve could just be that it can’t get much worse.
• Coles will be working with yet another new offensive coordinator, another new head coach, and if Kellen Clemens wins the job, another new QB. All that turnover makes it difficult to keep up a consistent performance. With so much changing in New York, and the team at least a few seasons away from really competing, Coles’ upside is limited to small improvements.
• Coles has never been much of a TD threat, with just 25 TD on 415 career receptions (1 TD/16.6 receptions). For comparison’s sake, a guy like Derrick Mason, who has also never been known to be a scoring maven, is at 1 TD/13.5 receptions. Santana Moss, who Coles replaced in New York, is at a whopping 1 TD/8.4 receptions.

Final Thoughts

It’s not that I don’t think Coles is talented. I just think the Jets are in for a long season, particularly on the offensive side of the football. The fact that the only positives I can find for Coles are that he’ll get the ball thrown to him and that he’s not horrible are, to me, very bad signs.

Considering we are into training camp now and the team still is unsure of who its Week 1 QB is, I’m taking that as yet another bad sign of the team’s off-season. Additionally, I see a lot of players who are being taken around Coles that I have FAR higher in my rankings. Coles is being drafted before several other #1 receivers who are in much more stable situations AND with much higher upside (Koren Robinson, Donte Stallworth, Michael Clayton). The upside of Coles is not very high, barring an absolutely unforeseen rejuvenation by the Jets team as a whole. New coaching staff or not, I just don’t see the team that was ranked 27th in passing yards and 31st in passing touchdowns suddenly vaulting that much higher up the list with an inexperienced coaching staff, a very shaky QB situation, and no track record of sustained success for either. That’s not even mentioning the Jets potentially poor RB situation with Curtis Martin currently on the PUP list.

With a QB in Chad Pennington who has trouble throwing deep, and Coles’ own breakdowns over the past two years, I just don’t see the upside in selecting him as high as he’s been going. I wouldn’t be against taking him at some point; but not anywhere near where most others have him valued to this point.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TKO Spikes:
It's hard to project him at this point because we don't know how the QB situation will play out. If Ramsey is starting, my projections will increase substantially, but I honestly don't have any faith in Pennington running the team and I think that directly impacts Coles in a big way.

Chadstroma:
The main issue looking at the upcoming year is the QB situation in NY. Pennington is a health concern, Ramsey has never taken advantage of his changes in Washington and still has much to prove that he can start at the NFL level, Bollinger seemed to prove that he is at best a backup QB, and Clemens is a rookie. Coles without doubt will be limited by this since any WR is only as good as the guy that can throw him the rock. I expect him to be the main target in NY and to get some opportunities by whoever is throwing but I think a realistic mark at to what he will achieve is somewhere in the area of about 70 catches, 850 yards and 7 TDs.

Z-Dog:
To me, what Coles was able to accomplish in the last two years in such awful surroundings is a huge confirmation of my belief that this guy is an elite WR who just needs some stability.

Laveranues Coles Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mike Brown	0	0	75	860	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	74	928	6