Chase Stuart's Thoughts

The Jets QB situation this year is far from promising. Chad Pennington, Patrick Ramsey and Kellen Clemens -- the star of mini-camp -- may each start games this year. If those names don't excite you, you probably have a good reason: they combined for 3 TDs and 4 INTs last season.

New head coach Eric Mangini brought in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer from San Diego, where he worked as the QB coach with Drew Brees. Because of all the change, it's difficult to get a feel for which QB the staff will like best.

All that leaves us with is figuring out which QB is the best. When healthy, that one's pretty easy: Chad Pennington. If nothing else, the Jets know they can win with Pennington -- he's the only QB to lead the franchise to playoff wins in multiple seasons. Since 2002 (Pennington's first year as a starter), the Jets are 21-16 in games started by Pennington, and 8-19 in all other games. Curtis Martin has been significantly more effective with Pennington under center over the same time frame, averaging 40 more total yards per game, twice as many TDs per game, and nearly half a yard more per carry.

Patrick Ramsey comes from Washington, where he has enjoyed diminishing success since his rookie season. Ramsey has the reputation of a playmaking QB with a big arm, which was justified after he averaged 13.2 yards (tops in the league) per completion as a rookie in 2002. But he only gained 9.85 YPC in 2004, ranking last in the league. He played sparingly last season, and the early returns on Ramsey's Jet career have not been positive.

Meanwhile, Kellen Clemens has become a fan favorite after an impressive mini-camp. Eric Mangini claims that the starting job is wide open, and will continue to give each QB equal snaps into training camp. While Clemens has a strong arm and may have been a steal in the middle of the second round, it seems unlikely that he'll be the opening day starter.

Whoever the starting QB is, it's not realistic to expect great fantasy numbers. Jets QBs ranked 30th in fantasy points in 2005, and the only team to throw fewer TDs was the 49ers. The Jets haven't had a QB rank in the top 12 since 1998, and that steak doesn't seem likely to end this year. Laveranues Coles is an above average NFL WR, and is a great target for any QB. But the Jets WR corps as a group is well below average. Justin McCareins played miserably in 2005, and none of the other WRs have had much success at the NFL level.

The Jets running game is a big question mark and the Jets don't know what they have at the tight end position either. The offensive line is young and talented, but is in a rebuilding phase. The Jets offense is weak at the skill position players, who will have to learn their third offensive system in three years. Whoever the QB is for the Jets, he's probably not a guy you want as anything more than a backup.

Positives

• All Jets QBs should be available late in your draft, and the group should exceed expectations. Look for New York to pass more than 470 times this year.
• All four quarterbacks will push each other in training camp, and they should all be better for it.
• Curtis Martin, Derrick Blaylock and Chris Baker missed significant time with injury last year; their returns should improve the offense.

Negatives

• A young offensive line that will likely feature rookies at Left Tackle and Center.
• The Jets haven't been a top passing team for some time, and New York doesn't have any playmakers.
• It seems unlikely that any one QB will have a lot of fantasy value this year.

Final Thoughts

The projections for Chad Pennington, Patrick Ramsey, Kellen Clemens and Brooks Bollinger were calculated by projecting each player's final numbers as if he started 16 games, then discounted by his likelihood of injury (high in Pennington's case, above average in Ramsey and Clemens), the odds that he won't be the starter (very likely for Bollinger and Clemens, likely for Ramsey) and the chances that the player will get cut (likely for Bollinger, possible for Ramsey).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

mlball77:
Honestly, I have NO idea how to project this situation... its a mess. I'm assuming that Pennington is still the front runner for the starting gig, but it sounds like its truly an open competition. I'd have to see a couple of pre-season games before I could feel even remotely comfortable making a projection for the NYJ QBs.

Z-Dog:
It's like you said, it's a mess that needs to shake out a little.

The entire Jets offense is a mess, and the only skill position player who looks certain to start is Laveranues Coles. It's tough to get any handle on this one.

The question with Pennington is purely one of health, in the sense that if he is able to make the throws, he is certain to start. Pat Ramsey and Brooks Bollinger are competing for a roster spot. I don't believe that either of them will have a shot at the starting job unless Pennington can't go and Clemens looks lost. Whichever guy wins the roster spot, I don't think he'd start more than 4 games.

Kellen Clemens has looked good so far, according to media reports (he was called the most impressive QB in mini camps). If Pennington is healthy, Clemens sits. If Pennington can't go, I suspect Clemens gets about 10 starts.

Kellen Clemens Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Chase Stuart	460	3	4	10	0
Message Board Consensus	1100	10	12	30	0