Jason Wood's Thoughts

Either I'm REALLY missing the boat on Michael Clayton this year or a lot of other people are. Having participated in several early drafts I've been stunned at how far Michael Clayton's draft stock has plummeted. His current ADP of WR26 actually discounts how late I've seen him drafted on several occasions.

I can understand why people would be apprehensive about Clayton. After a brilliant rookie season (80 receptions, 1193 yards and 7 TDs), big things were expected of Clayton last year. Yet, he was a non -factor for most of the season. His season-end totals of 32 receptions, 372 yards and 0 TDs are bad enough. But when you consider that many fantasy owners kept him in their lineup for weeks on end, waiting for the eventual turnaround, Clayton could arguably be one of 2006's least valuable fantasy receivers.

But winning fantasy owners aren't that myopic. Last year Clayton came into camp in poor condition  (225 pounds from his 213 playing weight the prior year) thanks to offseason knee surgery. He then injured his shoulder during camp. Rather than making excuses (as so many player would), Clayton played hurt, which never allowed his shoulder to properly heal. Bad form. But HC Jon Gruden made Clayton sign a contract to commit to offseason workouts and conditioning levels and Clayton appears to have risen to the challenge. He participated in all OTAs and mini-camps, is back down to 213 pounds and by all accounts was the Bucs most impressive receiver this offseason. It would be foolish to think he can't return to his rookie level; especially now that he's more mature and focused.

"But isn't Joey Galloway the Bucs go-to receiver?"

Joey Galloway had a great season, this much is true. But part of his success was because of Clayton's injury woes, not in spite of them. Look at the target numbers. Galloway was targeted 152 times. No other Bucs receiver had 60 targets. This year, Clayton and Galloway's targets will be much closer to parity. And it's somewhat ironic that fantasy owners are discounting a 23-year old Clayton because of an injury-riddled campaign yet are so inclined to count on Galloway. Galloway is 34 years old and has a medical chart that longer than the Boy in the Bubble.

"But what about the QB position, I'm not sold on Chris Simms?"

Fair enough. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Chris Simms is ever going to be a good fantasy QB, much less a great one. However, the Bucs appear committed to him and he is playing for a contract. Simms doesn't need to be the second coming of Dan Marino to make Michael Clayton a compelling fantasy pick. He just can't be Kyle Orton. And don't forget that Jon Gruden stockpiles quarterbacks. If Simms struggles or gets hurt, Gruden will have options behind him; he always does.

Positives

• Clayton has great size (6'4", 213 lbs.) and had a rookie season that rates among the all-time best
• Unlike last year, he's 100% healthy, fit and has been dominant in OTAs and mini-camp
• Jon Gruden is one of the league's best offensive minds, and will find ways to utilize Clayton; particularly because Joey Galloway can't be counted on to repeat last year's success

Negatives

• IF Joey Galloway remains healthy, he could keep Clayton from realizing his upside potential
• The Bucs WRs face a daunting schedule, according to Clayton Gray's

  Ultimate Strength of Schedule

• Chris Simms isn't a guarantee to put up great numbers, and the Bucs might not need him to given the strength of the defense and Cadillac Williams' presence

Final Thoughts

Michael Clayton is undervalued right now. He's so undervalued that I can't believe he'll actually be drafted as late as his ADP suggests; particularly in Shark leagues. He's young, has proven he can be a dominant fantasy receiver, and is 100% healthy. Last year's injuries weren't chronic and didn't require surgery. He just needed rest and a re-commitment to get in shape. With Cadillac Williams ready to run the ball into the ground, opposing defenses are going to have to leave with Galloway or Clayton singled up on most downs. If you think Galloway can repeat last year's numbers, you should still draft Clayton because he will easily exceed his ADP. But if you, like me, think Clayton is the Bucs' best receiver, you need to make sure he's one of your key acquisitions on draft day. Clayton is the kind of player you draft as a fantasy backup who ends up starting 12-14 games for you on the way to a title.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

David Yudkin (FBG Staff):
If ever we needed an example of how fickle fantasy football owners are, we need look no further then Michael Clayton. Clayton excelled in his rookie season but was nowhere near as productive in an injury-filled sophomore campaign. His fantasy ranking took a dive from one year to the next, dropping from WR13 to WR94 in just one season. Clayton's current ADP is as WR27, and there is no reason to think that a healthy Clayton will not rebound (rumors of partying aside).

Clayton put up the third most receptions and fourth most receiving yards ever for a rookie WR. The Bucs have churned through several QB in that time and seem likely to go with Chris Simms as their starter. Joey Galloway had a career year last year to help offset the nagging injuries to Clayton, but the odds of a 36 year old WR repeating his numbers from last year are slim, especially given his knack for getting hurt himself.

wannabe:
In summary, I think some of the blame for the decrease in Clayton's fantasy production was due to injury. But, there are many other factors at work, too. In trying to define fantasy production for 2006, and beyond, I think we cannot assume that Clayton will automatically resume the position as focal point in the passing game, and thereby getting the largest chunk of the targets.

Jon Moore:
I really think he's better than Galloway, and will have the type of season Galloway just did. He's not an elite receiver, but he can put up numbers.

Michael Clayton Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	75	1075	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	71	939	7