Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

The Indianapolis Colts’ biggest off-season loss was, without question, running back Edgerrin James’ moving to Arizona. Many speculated that Indianapolis would go out and get a free agent to address the new need in the backfield, but the Colts decided to improve their situation by drafting Joseph Addai and having the rookie share time with Dominic Rhodes at tailback, at least to start the season.

With such turmoil in the running game, it would make sense that Indianapolis would look once again to their Pro Bowl QB Peyton Manning to lead the offense as he did in 2004 with a record-breaking 49 touchdown passes.  If that is the case, everyone associated as a pass catcher for the Colts has to be targeted as a valuable asset for fantasy purposes.

This brings us to Dallas Clark, the primary tight end in Indianapolis.  Last year he finished as the 13th best tight end in fantasy football, making 37 catches for 488 yards and four touchdowns.  If the trend towards an offense much like that in 2004 were to hold, one would expect more production from the Colts’ starting tight end, right?

Let’s take a quick look at 2004 for a moment. The Colts’ tight ends had 58 catches for 765 yards and 11 scores – but Clark had only 25 catches, 423 yards and five touchdowns that season.  What happened?  The answer is that Clark was not the only man in town – Marcus Pollard split time with Clark and they shared the production.

I mention Pollard only because I see a similar issue for 2006. TE Bryan Fletcher could definitely take some of the catches and receptions away from Clark this year, so a general uptrend for the Colts’ tight ends in the passing game may only get Clark to about where his numbers were last season.  Another reason to mention Fletcher is that Clark has never played in all 16 games in any of his three seasons, so there is yet another reason to be cautiously optimistic about his production for this year.

Positives

• With running back a question in Indianapolis, the passing game should be more of an emphasis for the Colts.
• Clark has soft hands and makes the tough catches across the middle. He is often a favorite target for QB Peyton Manning in the red zone.
• Clark has posted four career 100+ yard games in three seasons, affording a fantasy owner with the possibility of a huge afternoon. Clark posted more than 10 fantasy points in three out of 15 games last season.

Negatives

• Clark is the fourth option in the passing game behind WRs Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, not to mention running backs Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes coming out of the backfield for receptions.
• TE Bryan Fletcher represents a definite threat to playing time for Dallas Clark. His impact may be more in receptions and yardage than touchdowns, but it will still be a setback for Clark’s production.
• Clark has not proven to be able to stay healthy. He broke his leg in 2003 and missed the second half of the season. In the 2004 season, Clark lost time for a strained calf muscle, a biceps strain, and a concussion, with almost the exact same set of injuries in 2005. This injury history cannot be discounted.

Final Thoughts

Despite being listed as the starting tight end for the Colts this season, the threat of both injuries and second TE Bryan Fletcher make me very cautious about Clark’s potential for 2006. Right now I would be second-guessing any fantasy draft that would net Dallas Clark as my team’s first tight end. Yes, there is a distinct possibility that Clark can get you a 100-yard game with a touchdown, but there is a much larger probability that he will give you next to nothing. In 2005, Clark had 11 games (of 15 that he played) where he produced under five fantasy points – hardly starter numbers. Clark makes for a viable spot replacement and a solid second tight end, but I would look elsewhere for a starter.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

mlball77:
Being a huge Iowa Hawkeye fan, its hard for me to keep my projections for Dallas Clark in check. I really had hoped, but not necessarily believed, that with Pollard's departure Clark would become a 2nd tier ff TE, in the group behind TGonz and Gates. Obviously such didn't happen in 05.

Looking forward to 06, I think Indy's passing game is going to have to carry an even bigger load with Edge gone; particularly in the redzone, in my opinion. Dallas Clark could potentially reap the benefits of this situation... its tough to tell.

Dallas Clark Projections

SOURCE	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jeff Pasquino	40	500	4
Message Board Consensus	45	580	5