Chris Smith's Thoughts

Chris Chambers will be a hot commodity in fantasy football this season and rightfully so. After several seasons of considerable promise, Chambers finally managed to put it all together in 2005 and finished as the 7th ranked fantasy receiver. He caught 52 receptions for 701 yards and 8 touchdowns over the final eight weeks of the season and had three multiple-touchdown games. His explosion and jumping ability has been compared favorably to Randy Moss since he entered the league as a rookie and he has greatly improved his route-running over the past few seasons.

There is no question that Chambers will have significant fantasy production this season. The question that needs to be answered is:

‘Will Chambers join the elite receivers in fantasy football this season or did he reached his peak in 2005?’

The answer to that question will be answered by the end of this spotlight.

Chambers has a real nose for the endzone as his 29 touchdowns over the past three seasons illustrate. That ranks him in a tie for 4th in the NFL over that span with Terrell Owens and behind only Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt. His athleticism and jumping ability really help him succeed within the red-zone and there is no reason to believe he won’t get his touchdowns again in 2006.

Somewhat surprisingly, Chambers is ranked 6th over the past three seasons when it comes to total fantasy points scored at the receiver position. His 485.7 total fantasy points put him ahead of players such as Terrell Owens, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne and Joe Horn. He hasn’t had less than 139.4 fantasy points over that span despite having quarterbacks such as A.J. Feeley, Jay Fiedler, Brian Griese and Gus Frerotte throwing him the ball.

In order to be considered a top fantasy receiver however, Chambers must improve his game-to-game consistency as well as his concentration throughout a game. He tends to disappear at times throughout the season and the best receivers in the NFL keep the poor games to a minimum. From week 12 thru week 14 last year, he had three straight 100-yard performances but he was unable to reach that level through the rest of the season. He also tends to drop too many passes and must tighten up that aspect of his game

Positives

• Tremendous athletic ability, long arms and great jumping skills
• A legitimate red-zone target with 29 touchdowns over the past three seasons
• For the first time in his career, he may be blessed with a legitimate quarterback

Negatives

• He drops too many passes due to questionable concentration
• Has been known to round off his pass routes at times in the past
• Disappears at times throughout the season (had five games with five or fewer fantasy points in 2005)

Final Thoughts

This season, if Daunte Culpepper can get healthy by the start of the season, Chambers will for the first time in his career have a legitimate star quarterback throwing him the ball. Culpepper, as he did with Randy Moss in Minnesota, will zone in on Chambers and get the ball to him often throughout the season. The more targets Chambers gets this season, the higher his value will be and he may emerge as a true fantasy star in 2006.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Liquid Tension:
Chambers has really been pretty consistent and healthy in his career. As stated previously, he has excellent hands and can make the tough catches look easy. He does drop a few easy passes and did have 5 fumbles last year, but I expect that was more of an aberration. I expect Chambers to finish the year with more yards but not increase his TD production. He will be 28 years old in August (in his prime) and has a very high floor even if his ceiling may not reach the top tier guys. Chambers is a very solid guy to have on your fantasy team and should finish in the top 10 this year once again averaging more than 11 points a game.

SSOG:
Look down the list of the elite WRs from last season, and you'll notice they all have one thing in common- a fantastic catch percentage. Steve Smith (69%), Chad Johnson (63%), Santana Moss (63%), Larry Fitzgerald (62%), Anquan Boldin (60%), Marvin Harrison (62%), Reggie Wayne (68%), Torry Holt (63%). Looking back at previous years reinforces this trend (top fantasy WRs catch a high percentage of their opportunities).

Chris Chambers' career catch% numbers are 53%, 52%, 49%, 50%, and 49%. I will start believing he's an elite WR when he starts catching the dang ball with some consistancy.

LHUCKS:
The problem with Chambers' 06 fantasy prospects have nothing to do with Chambers, but have everything to do with the question marks at QB. Culpepper will most likely not be ready for the beginning of the season and the QB depth in Miami is questionable at best with Frerotte leaving for St. Louis. I'm expecting a down year for Chambers and a subsequent disappointment for those drafting him at his current ADP.

Duffy:
As others have stated, Chambers is a safe pick for 900+ yards, 9-10 TDs and some rushing yardage as well. That's the floor for this guy. When Culpepper is fully recovered and the two have had sufficient time to acclimate to one another...Chambers production could go through the roof. He's low risk...with high production possibilities.

Chris Chambers Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Chris Smith	0	0	88	1195	10
Message Board Consensus	0	0	80	1107	9