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Spotlight - RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints
Posted on 8/1, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts
Is history repeating itself in the Big Easy? It was five years ago that Deuce McAllister, considered by many the best running back in the NFL draft, was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the first round despite the presence of a Pro Bowl back that was considered a franchise cornerstone. That cornerstone was, of course, Ricky Williams who was coming off a 1,000-yard season and was just beginning to hint at justifying Mike Ditka's decision to give up a year's worth of draft picks. As a rookie, McAllister barely played while Williams put up a solid 1,245 yard rushing season. But McAllister showed enough in practice and camp that the Saints traded Williams to Miami the following year. The result, the "Deuce" was loose and McAllister ran for 1,388 yards and 13 TDs while catching 47 passes and another three scores. Fast forward to April when the Texans mysteriously passed on Reggie Bush, the USC phenom, for defensive end Mario Williams. The Saints, holding the 2nd pick and needing to energize a Katrina-impacted fan base, drafted Bush despite the presence of McAllister, who had just signed a $60mm deal a year before. Could Bush represent the end of the McAllister era just as Deuce represented the end of Ricky's run in New Orleans? It's impossible to say right now, but let's discuss the various scenarios and how fantasy owners should approach the Saints RB corps on draft day. Assessing McAllister's health -- If McAllister was healthy and coming off a Pro Bowl season, I would feel more comfortable in saying Bush would apprentice in 2006 and make his mark as a return man and pass catcher in obvious passing situations. At worst, the Saints would use McAllister (Thunder) and Bush (Lightning) as an RBBC much as the Trojans used Bush and LenDale White in a similar fashion. But McAllister WASN'T healthy last year, missing two thirds of the season after tearing his right ACL in October. Modern medicine has come a long way and McAllister should be able to recover fully, but usually it takes a season to get the full range of motion and confidence back. Does McAllister have that kind of time with Bush signed to a huge rookie contract? Probably not. Through the first week of training camp, McAllister has practiced but confirms a lot of swelling and tenderness in the knee. He's yet to experience meaningful contact, and there's no timetable for him to do so. The bottom line is until McAllister takes some direct hits on the knee, you have to assume he'll be limited to a part-time role. Assessing Bush's skill set -- Industry observers struggle to project Reggie Bush at the next level; because it's been a long time since we saw someone as explosive. The most oft-cited NFL backs are Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders and Gayle Sayers. Saints fans, and fantasy owners, would gladly take an approximation of any of those guys. Bush is a physical marvel, who isn't simply a burner. He's far stronger than his size would indicate (take a look at his Pro Day numbers) and should be able to handle carries inside the tackles with aplomb. He runs with an excellent sense of balance, and has quick feet and vision that simply can't be coached; it's an innate talent. As explosive an open field runner as Bush is, he's equally dangerous as a receiver. Bush has receiving ability on par with Brian Westbrook, who is lined up wide by the Eagles as often as he carries the ball. If McAllister is fully healthy, Bush will still make a huge impact as a receiver. I would be shocked if he caught less than 50 passes this year, with a handful of receiving scores to go with it. Assessing the new coaching staff -- I'm not that confident in the Saints new coaching staff. Sean Payton is a young, organized coach but his reputation as a play caller leaves much to be desired. He had his play-calling duties taken away in New York, and Bill Parcells wouldn't hand over the reins completely in Dallas either (Payton was a co-offensive coordinator). Payton's offensive coordinator, Doug Marrone, has plenty of whitespace on his resume, too. Assessing the supporting cast -- QB Drew Brees' shoulder means a lot for McAllister and Bush's fate. If his shoulder is A-OK, Brees should inject some respectability to the Saints passing attack and ensure that teams don't stick eight men in the box with regularity. He should also ably find his backs in the passing game. Remember, it was Brees who quarterbacked the Chargers in 2003, when LaDainian Tomlinson caught 100 receptions out of the backfield. The receiving corps is adequate (again, it all comes down to Brees). And the offensive line has a solid nucleus; which should be of critical importance to McAllister (coming off knee surgery), whereas Bush could make plays with or without a good line (because he can come out of the backfield and make plays as a receiver). My best guess for their playing time split Until two weeks ago, Michael Bennett was also in the mix but he was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs to backup Larry Johnson. That should be seen as a positive sign for McAllister's recovery. One has to think the Saints wouldn't have jettisoned a proven 1,000-yard backup if Deuce's recovery was in question. Either way, I think Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister will combine for the lion's share of New Orleans' ground attack. But getting a handle on what that means is nearly impossible because of the new coaching staff, system and personnel. So let's look at current ADP for both backs and think about what kind of fantasy production that implies: Deuce McAllister -- His current ADP is RB27, as the 50th overall pick. Over the last five seasons, the 27th ranked fantasy back has averaged:
Reggie Bush -- His current ADP is RB20, as the 32nd overall pick. Over the last five seasons, the 20th ranked fantasy back has averaged:
Combining those averages, we get:
If we stick with our assumption that Bush and McAllister will account for 90%-95% of the Saints RB production, the aggregate assumptions that go into their current ADP don't appear unfounded. So the real question becomes, who has more upside (i.e., the ability to exceed current expectations)? In McAllister's case, if he is healthy he'll smash through the RB27 projections. But on draft day you have to discount his expectations due to the ACL recovery. Net-net, he's probably being drafted at fair value. In Bush's case, if he catches the 50+ passes I believe him a lock for, he only needs about 600 yards rushing to make it worth your while. Frankly, I think that's a stone cold lock with or without a healthy McAllister. Without a healthy Deuce, Bush could destroy current expectations. Frankly, I think Bush represents a higher ceiling, but only if McAllister gets hurt. If they're both healthy, I think McAllister has better "value" even if Bush has more "upside." Confused yet? Simply put, I wouldn't go out of my way to draft Deuce, but if I did grab Bush in the 2nd or 3rd round and there's the typical run on RBs early in your draft, I wouldn't hesitate to roster McAllister as a handcuff. Somehow, someway I think you're looking at undervalued commodities when the dust settles.
Positives
Negatives
Final Thoughts This situation is all about balancing expectations against the likely division of RB touches. Current ADP for both players presumes that Bush will get more work, which makes sense given his contract, age, ability and McAllister's injury. Were Deuce an average NFL back, one would presume Bush would take over the feature role sooner than later. But McAllister, when healthy, is much more than an average runner. If McAllister makes it through camp healthy, I would expect a true RBBC whereby McAllister gets more carries and the bulk of the short yardage work, while Bush catches a ton of passes and gets a few series each game as the main ball carrier. Under that situation, neither guy is particularly compelling at current ADP. But if either succumbs to injury, the other is almost assuredly going to demolish their projected value. I would handcuff Bush with McAllister in 10- and 12-team redraft leagues if at all possible. Draft accordingly.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
Musesboy: I expect the pair to begin the season with similar roles to those that Bush and LenDale White had at USC last year. McAllister will likely be given White's role and will be used to wear down the defense and carry in short yardage and goal line situations. The Saints will want to get Bush on the field as he can make things happen. If the balance is right, they can stop McAllister from wearing down while Bush can provide a different kind of threat. I think we will see Bush used in the return game and on third down, as well as when McAllister needs a breather. The Saints have not been very good for a while now, and so I don't expect their offense to suddenly click and start scoring TDs at will, but Bush will undoubtedly give them a lift. The prospect of playing at home after last year's tragedy in New Orleans should also lift the team.
rzrback77:
lebowski: It sounds like Reggie Bush will be all over the field at both RB and WR. I could see him taking on more of a Bryan Westbrook type role (10-15 carries/ game 5-6 receptions). Don't forget that McAllister was rated pretty high the last couple years but is coming back from knee surgery. I'm guessing he will be used sparingly because of this (also 10-15 carries a game.) So here are my projections...
Reggie Bush Projections
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