Jason Wood's Thoughts

A year ago, Burress wanted to prove to the world that he was a true #1 receiver, having tired of playing in Hines Ward's shadow in Pittsburgh. For much of the offseason, teams seemed unwilling to pay Burress the kind of money he was asking, but eventually he came to terms with the Giants. Some wondered how the sometimes moody Burress would handle head coach Tom Coughlin's demonstrative demeanor, but for the most part, they got along swimmingly.

By most accounts, Plaxico Burress' first season in New York was a success. He caught 76 passes for 1,214 yards and seven touchdowns, good enough for an 11th place finish among fantasy receivers. His 16.0 yards per catch were 5th best among wideouts with at least 1,000 yards, and he was the 2nd most targeted receiver in the league. Burress played a huge role in Eli Manning's breakthrough season and the Giants surprisingly strong finish as the 11th ranked passing offense.

Looking ahead to 2006, it's easy to simply pencil in Burress for another top-12 season and draft accordingly. After all, Eli Manning is young and presumably going to continue to improve. Burress will be more familiar with the offense, to boot. And as long as Tiki Barber is healthy, opposing defenses will find it difficult to overplay the passing game.

While I think fantasy owners can confidently draft Burress with expectations of a top 15 season, it's important to acknowledge the potential risks to that expectation.

1) Burress is inconsistent -- While a physically imposing and naturally gifted, Burress has lapses in concentration and can take himself out of the game at times. Last year, he led all receivers with 11 dropped passes. When your star QB only completes 52% of his passes, every dropped pass counts.

2) Eli Manning must continue to improve -- While Manning played well enough to inspire confidence by Giants faithful, his 2005 season had reasons for concern. He only completed 52% of his passes, threw the 2nd most interceptions, and saw his passer rating decline in each successive month.

3) The Giants schedule looks difficult -- The Giants, by virtue of winning their division last year, face a daunting schedule in 2006. Games against division foes Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington are a given, but the Giants also face the Colts, Seattle, Atlanta, Tampa, Chicago, Jacksonville and Carolina.

Positives

• Burress has a rare combination of size (6'5", 231 pounds) and speed, which allows him to beat defensive backs both vertically and downfield
• He's coming off an 11th place fantasy season in his first year as a Giant, he and the rest of his offensive supporting cast return for another go around
• Jeremy Shockey and Tiki Barber ensure that opposing defenses won't double team Burress with regularity

Negatives

• Burress can let his emotions get the best of him, which can in turn impact his personal statistics and his team's success
• Despite rare physical gifts, he shows lapses in concentration as exhibited by his league leading 11 dropped passes
• In five seasons as a full-time player, he's never caught more than seven touchdowns

Final Thoughts

Plaxico Burress proved his critics last year with an 11th place fantasy finish. The Giants offense returns intact (save for an upgrade at WR3 via rookie Sinorice Moss) and, presuming Eli Manning continues the natural improvement curve one expects of a young signal caller, it's entirely logical to think Burress could meet or exceed last year's production. Ultimately, I think his inconsistency and the Giants more difficult schedule suggests that he may regress this year, ever so slightly. But that still places him among the top 15-18 receivers; making him an every week starter in 10- and 12-team leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
I have never been a Plaxico Buress fan. I think it has to do with I believe he's got more potential than what he actually produces on the field. For years, he's always had sloppy footwork near the sidelines or in th endzone. I've seen numerous big plays called back just becuase he didn't drag the toe or lost where he was to stay in bounds. With that said, I also think he limited those things last year and upped his game a bit. Buress has big play potential and against the right defenses, he has the potential to put up huge fantasy football numbers because Eli Manning is a smart QB and will go back over and over to what is working. I can't see Buress staying out of the top 15 and could easily be a top 10 receiver this year.

Keys Myath:
I'm looking for a slight, slight downgrade in production this year. Burress had a very good year last year, one of his best, which makes that hard to duplicate, IMO. Manning IS an up and coming QB, though, which will help.

Koya:
Taken into perspective, I would expect a season that more or less mirrors the first half of last year in production, with some inconsistency thrown in (Plax will have his mental breakdowns and his 3 or so games where his head is simply not in the game). In the end, I see about 80 receptions - just a bit more than last year - but some more TDs as the offense overall should improve with the addition of Moss and more experienced QB.

Plaxico Burress Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	72	1150	7
Message Board Consensus	0	0	78	1248	8