Jason Wood's Thoughts

Last year was frustrating for me in terms of evaluating wide receivers. It seemed that every young receiver I projected as a top 15-20 candidate fell short of expectations either due to injury, performance or a combination of both.

Nate Burleson was one such receiver. A year ago, I had this to say about him:

Entering his 3rd season, all the pieces are in place for Burleson to take the next step in his development; which would put him solidly among the league's most productive young receivers. I believe Nate Burleson has an excellent opportunity to finish among the top 10 fantasy receivers and would suggest you draft accordingly.

OOPS

After a breakthrough second year saw him catch 68 receptions for 1,006 yards and nine touchdowns, Burleson completely flopped in 2005 as the team's new WR1. In 12 games played, Burleson had just 30 receptions for 328 yards and one touchdown. He ranked 93rd among fantasy receivers...not 93rd OVERALL, but the 93rd ranked RECEIVER.

So what happened, you ask? It's more like what didn't happen...

1) Randy Moss left town -- Not having Moss had a far greater impact on the Vikings offense than I expected.

2) Culpepper was ineffective, and then got hurt -- Culpepper looked absolutely horrendous in the early going and then was lost for the season.

3) Burleson probably wasn't ready to man the top slot -- Burleson's breakout year came as Moss' WR2, meaning he rarely, if ever, saw double coverage. Early last season, he seemed overmatched at times as opposing defenses schemed him out of the game for the first time.

4) He hurt his knee -- In Week Two, Burleson sprained his left knee and didn't return until Week 7. The injury never completely healed, and it found him inactive for another game and infrequently used in several others.

So why are we spending so much time on a receiver who barely registered on the fantasy radar last year, you ask?

Because, in my opinion, he represents incredible value in redraft leagues. Consensus projections and his ADP suggest people really misunderstand Burleson's opportunity this year. Let me briefly run through the reasons why Burleson should be on your "must have" list as you fill out your WR roster in the mid- to late rounds.

• He's now a Seahawk -- Say goodbye to the tumultuous situation in Minnesota and hello to a spot on the defending NFC champs. Burleson is returning home, having grown up in Seattle
• He signed for a ton of money -- The Seahawks signed Burleson to a seven year, $49 million contract with a $5.25 million bonus. Like most contracts, much of the gaudy $49 million headline number isn't guaranteed, but there are very reasonable incentives in place and clearly the contract suggests Burleson isn't being paid to be a role player
• Matt Hasselbeck is his QB -- Matt Hasselbeck has become one of the best quarterbacks in the game, a real asset for a young receiver. Remember, two years ago when Daunte Culpepper was healthy, Burleson had 1,000 yards and nine TDs
• He doesn't have to be WR1 -- Darrell Jackson is the team's lead wide receiver, allowing Burleson to resume his more natural role as the WR2
• He won't be WR3 -- I find it amusing to read that others discount Burleson because of Bobby Engram's presence. Engram is the consummate professional and will happily resume his role as the WR3 and primary slot receiver. Remember, Engram has been in the league a long time and has always been best suited coming out of the slot
• He's healthy -- This is, BY FAR, the most important point to remember. In Burleson's first two seasons, he averaged better than 15 yards per reception and scored 11 TDs in 97 catches. Last year, hobbled by a lingering knee injury, his YPC fell to 10.9 and he caught just one TD. While the injury clearly hampered his production, it wasn't severe enough to require surgery or major rehab. He's 100% and has participated in the Seahawks' OTAs.

Positives

• He's a young, talented receiver on one of the league's best teams; reports in Seahawks OTAs indicate Burleson is playing extremely well in the early going
• After a lingering knee sprain robbed him of a productive 2005, he's 100% recovered and ready to resume his ascent into the upper echelon at the position
• He's entering a near perfect situation (great coach, very good QB, solid WR1 to take pressure off, great running game)

Negatives

• Burleson was healthy enough to play 12 games last year on a team desperate for playmakers; yet he failed to deliver even one fantasy gem
• Seattle has a plethora of offensive options, meaning Hasselbeck could distribute the ball democratically resulting in a handful of decent fantasy performers, yet no great ones
• Burleson's current ADP of WR28 isn't as low as one might expect coming off a dismal 2005, you'll need him to be a solid fantasy WR3 week in, week out to justify the draft choice

Final Thoughts

A LOT of people are discounting Nate Burleson for all the wrong reasons. Sure, his vaunted "3rd year breakout" never came to fruition, but let's not forget that the main reason wasn't a lack of ability, but a knee injury. He's healthy now, happily back in his home town with a major contract, and playing for a winning team, with Pro Bowlers surrounding him. If Darrell Jackson is healthy this year, I wouldn't expect Burleson to put up huge numbers, but with Shaun Alexander running the ball with vengeance, there's no reason to think Burleson won't be singled up and given a ton of opportunities. If you can land Burleson as your 3rd or 4th receiver, you're on your way to maximizing value on draft day.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

mlball77:
In my view, (barring injury) there are only two ways that Burleson can post anything near the numbers that he did in in 2004 for Minnesota: 1. DJ Hackett sees a marked decrease in production along with Engram experiencing a decent decline as well... this decline being the direct result of significant targets and involvement for Burleson -OR- 2. Seattle passes for many more yards in 06 than they have in recent years... Burleson being one of the primary beneficiaries. Because I don't believe either one of these scenarios to be probable... my projection for Burleson is modest at this point.

Biabreakable:
Burelson's talents are well suited for the West Coast Offense crossing patterns and he has good run after the catch ability. Which is the reason I think the Seahawks targeted him to compliment Darrell Jackson.

jurb26:
I'm pegging Burleson as a one year wonder in Minnesota. I've never really felt this guy had the talent to be a top WR in the NFL and now I think he goes to less desirable situation in Seattle.

Nate Burleson Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	65	970	5
Message Board Consensus	0	0	50	687	5