Spotlight - QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

That paints quite a different picture. Putting aside the Rams considerable offseason changes for a second, let's discuss Bulger's fantasy PPG and how that should factor into your thinking on draft day. It's a fact that the average NFL starter plays 13 games per season. Yet we typically base our projections on every QB playing 16 games. There is some logic in that because it's impossible to predict injuries from year to year. However, if you take the aforementioned as fact, you also understand that if you can get solid fantasy production from you top QB for 12-13 games, you're getting about what history says you should expect. From that perspective, Bulger looks like a very compelling fantasy option; particularly given his ADP.

But the flipside of his higher PPG ranking is that, on average, Bulger has missed time. In 3.5 years as a starter, Bulger has missed 11 regular season games due to a variety of ailments. Last season, Bulger was shut down for the final six games because of a badly bruised shoulder. You need to make sure Bulger is full healthy throughout camp. His injuries SHOULDN'T be recurrent, but one never knows.

OK, now let's talk about the wholesales changes in St. Louis. The last few years the Rams have had Mad Mike Martz throwing the ball all over the place, and a woeful defense has forced the team to win (or lose) a lot of shootouts. That scenario is fantasy gold for a QB. This year, Martz is out and Scott Linehan is in. I've seen plenty of people forecast a downtick in the Rams offensive production as a result; yet, is that fair?

Scott Linehan has done a solid job as an offensive coordinator, and done so in not one but two venues. In fact, his offenses compare quite favorably to Martz over the same time frame:

2005 -- Martz' Rams 5,886 yards vs. Linehan's Dolphins 5,356 yards
2005 -- Martz' Rams 363 points vs. Linehan's Dolphins 318 points
2004 -- Martz' Rams 6,239 yards vs. Linehan's Dolphins 6,577 yards
2004 -- Martz' Rams 319 points vs. Linehan's Dolphins 405 points
2003 -- Martz' Rams 5,783 yards vs. Linehan's Dolphins 6,512 yards
2003 -- Martz' Rams 447 points vs. Linehan's Dolphins 416 points
2002 -- Martz' Rams 5,885 yards vs. Linehan's Dolphins 6,458 yards
2002 -- Martz' Rams 316 points vs. Linehan's Dolphins 390 points

What's most promising for Bulger is Linehan's willingness to PROTECT him. Martz simply couldn't pull himself away from 3- and 4-WR sets; but Linehan will regularly use 2-WR sets and keep tight ends and RBs back in to block.

Positives

Bulger has finished no worse than QB5 on a PPG basis in his four seasons
Scott Linehan's offensive stylings have been as successful as Mike Martz, but some fantasy owners may not realize that and discount Bulger's outlook on draft day
Bulger has a 65% career completion percentage and has averaged almost 8 yards per attempt (among the best of current day starters)

Negatives

Bulger hasn't been able to last through a whole season, and is coming off a shoulder injury that sidelined him for half the 2005 campaign
Bulger has been prone to turnovers, particularly when pressured
Bulger was considered a marginal pro prospect before stepping into the Rams offense. We've seen Mike Martz make stars out of also-rans many times, but the same can't be said for Linehan. Will Bulger be able to replicate his success in a new, more conventional system?

Final Thoughts

With Linehan at the helm, two young promising TEs to go along with the triumvirate of Holt, Bruce and Curtis, RB Steven Jackson and one of the better offensive lines in the NFC, Bulger is a compelling option at his current ADP. His injury history and the uncertainty of the new system are enough to knock him down a round or two on draft day, but if he falls too far below his expected ADP, grab him as your starter and know that you're getting value.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Musesboy:
The biggest question is not Bulger's ability or situation, it's whether he can stay on the field. Linehan also wants Steven Jackson to run the ball up to 25 times per game. While I am sure he wants that, it's very unlikely to happen on a regular basis. Holt is in his prime and the other receivers compliment him well.

rzrback77:
Bulger has been an awesome fantasy QB to have in your lineup over the past three years. He has been a very consistent score, WHEN he is in the game. I would say that he is one of the most frustrating QBs due to the amount of scoring he gives when he plays AND the number of games that he sits on both the Rams and your fantasy team's bench.

Just Win Baby:
The past two years are troubling. He has played only about 20 healthy games over the past 2 seasons. And the 12 missed games include 2 games in which he got hurt early in a game and hammered his owners' chances by putting up less than 10 points before leaving. I like him, but I'm definitely worried about the injuries. Agree that a strong backup is needed. In deep roster leagues, adding Frerotte as QB3 is not a bad idea.

Marc Bulger Projections

SOURCE PYD PTD INT RSHYD RSHTD

Jason Wood 3500 23 15 40 1

Message Board Consensus 3958 25 16 73 1

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