Mike Brown's Thoughts

When discussing the 49ers wide receivers’ prospects for the upcoming season, the discussion begins and ends with two names: Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle.

Unless you play in a 32-team league that starts eight wide receivers, there is very little chance that the fantasy fortunes of Brandon Williams and Bryan Gilmore matter to you. Even Battle is on the outskirts of value, considering as the Niners WR2 in 2005, Battle compiled the following numbers: 32 receptions, 363 yards, 3 TD. He has just about no draft value in redrafts, and his value as a potential fantasy difference-maker is tied directly to the possibility of Antonio Bryant getting hurt. So, for purposes of this article, I have chosen to focus exclusively on the impact of Bryant.

Bryant is fresh off the first 1,000-yard season of his career, having registered 1,009 with Cleveland last year. A lack of scores led to his WR25 ranking, making him a borderline WR2 in fantasy circles. The lack of scoring wasn’t entirely his fault, as the Browns’ QB situation was in flux and certainly not one of the better options in the league.

Unfortunately for him, Bryant moves to a team whose QB situation may even be weaker. Second-year man Alex Smith looked nothing like a potential star QB a year ago, and one cannot reasonably expect him to grow into a top-20 QB this year either. That means no matter how good Bryant has looked in training camp (he has), it could be tough for him to match last year’s 1,000-yard campaign. The question is, will it be a steep enough drop-off as to wreck any value? Or is his ability enough to overcome the rest of the Niners deficiencies and enable him to maintain a solid level of production?

Positives

• Bryant is one of the most talented wideouts in the game. The question has never been ability; it’s been attitude.
• It’s early, but reports out of San Francisco indicate that Bryant has turned the corner in his maturity. He has drawn rave reviews during spring minicamps and early training camp, and seems ready to put his past issues behind him.
• Alex Smith or not, Bryant is still a #1 WR coming off a 1,000-yard season. He’s being selected as the 44th WR on average, and for the cost of a 10th round pick, you could be adding a bona fide fantasy starter as your WR3.

Negatives

• Coming off a breakout season, his former team made basically no effort to re-sign him. If he were truly an impact player, one would think the team would want to keep him around.
• QB Alex Smith is not to be confused with, well anyone right now. He is probably the worst starting QB in the NFL right now. That’s not to say he won’t be better someday, but early reports don’t suggest that someday is now. If the Niners QB situation doesn’t drastically improve, it’ll be tough for Bryant to build upon his 2005 numbers.
• San Francisco drafted TE Vernon Davis with its first round pick (5th overall), so he will be counted on to provide a lot of production. For a team that was last in the league in both passing yards and TDs a year ago, you don’t want to be the #2 option. There just wouldn’t be enough balls to go around to allow him to be productive if Davis (or incumbent TE Eric Johnson) makes a huge impact.

Final Thoughts

Before hearing the encouraging news regarding Bryant, I couldn’t see any way for him to be successful in San Francisco – at least not THIS year. And after the first fluff piece or two, I disregarded it as simply that – off-season fluff. But when I’m continuously hit over the head with how much better Bryant looks, how hard he’s working in camp, and mostly the attitude overhaul, I can’t help but think that Bryant will easily exceed his ADP.

I think it’s important to temper the good news on Bryant a bit, if only because there are still a lot of unresolved questions with the Niners. For example, who starts at RB, Frank Gore or Kevan Barlow? Who starts at TE, Vernon Davis or Eric Johnson? Is Alex Smith ready to be a legitimate NFL quarterback, or can we expect more of the same from last season? And finally, does the arrival of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator mean he’ll be able to do in San Francisco what he did at previous stops? And can it get done quickly enough to help Bryant this season?

A lot of these questions will sort themselves out over the next month or so; some won’t. That is the risk in drafting Bryant. The good thing is, you won’t have to invest all that heavily in him to find out. His ceiling isn’t likely as high as some other players, just because the turnaround in San Francisco would have to be record-setting and dramatic in order for Bryant to improve upon last year’s stats. But there’s no reason the team can’t gradually improve as the season goes on, making Bryant more and more valuable down the stretch. If nothing else, he’s got more ability and just as much upside as most of the receivers being taken around him, and there are much worse guys to take at that spot.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

toxicbees:
People are way too high on Niner wideouts this year. Remember, Alex Smith only had 1 TD last year. While I think Smith is going to improve in his 2nd season. Smith's upside is around 3200 yards passing and 15 TDs. That really doesn't leave much value to go around. If you look at past Norv Turner offenses, you can expect the RBs and TEs to get an upswing in receptions.

Grid71:
I see him as a potential #3 WR in PPR leagues. There is bound to be plenty of garbage time for some cheap stats.

Finatic:
I think the Bryant numbers are too high for a WR who has questionable hands at best,not to mention the team switch and the offense he is now in. I think Battle leads the team in receptions with Bryant leading the team in yards and TDs.

Antonio Bryant Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Mike Brown	0	0	55	750	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	71	989	6