Will Grant's Thoughts

In 2004 Brunell was brought to Washington to add a veteran presence to the Redskin QB corps. His initial performance made many people question if Joe Gibbs could still coach in the NFL. Brunell had less than 1200 yards passing, only seven TD passes, six interceptions and his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season (49.8%). Naming him the starter for the 2005 season was suicide right? The guy was the 33rd best fantasy QB in 2004!

Nope. Not even close. Over 3,000 yards passing (his best since 2001), 23 TD passes (career best) and he finished as the 14th best fantasy QB (best since 2001). He even played in all 16 games, something he’s only done twice during his first 11 seasons. He even led the Redskins to a playoff win against Tampa and had Washington within two games of the Super Bowl.

For 2006 the Redskins have added a ton of firepower. In 2005 the passing offense revolved around Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. Now the Redskins have added San Francisco standout Brandon Lloyd and Pittsburgh playmaker Antwaan Randal El to the mix. Combined they had 85 receptions for 1,291 yards and 6 receiving TDs in 2005, and will give opposing defenses fits trying to cover everyone on the offensive side of the ball for Washington. Backup Patrick Ramsey was traded to the Jets, leaving Brunell as the only experienced QB on the roster. So Brunell is a no-brainer pick from a fantasy prospective for 2006, right?

Nope. Not even close. Brunell has finished as a Top-10 fantasy QB just once since 1998. Coincidently that was the last time he played a full 16-game season. Much of Brunell’s 2005 success came during a five game stint early in the season. During that time, Brunell threw for 1,422 yards, 12 TDS and only two INTs. Compare that with the last five games of the season where Brunell had just 694 yards passing, eight TDs (four in Week 15) and two INTs. Despite putting up his best numbers since the 2000 season, Brunell finished 14th among fantasy QBs, making him a quality backup/spot starter in most leagues.

Positives

• Brunell is by FAR the most experienced QB on the Redskins roster. Backup Jason Campbell is entering his second NFL season without having taken a snap and third stringer Todd Collins is not going to challenge anyone.
• The team fields increased firepower. As mentioned above, Washington brought in a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Guys like Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randal El, David Patten and Christian Fauria give the Redskins one of the deepest pass-catching groups in the league.
• Washington looks like a playoff caliber team. Owner Dan Snyder wants to win now. Coach Joe Gibbs wants to win now. The team wants to win now. Of the three QBs on the team, Brunell gives them the best chance to win. If he can play, he’s going to be in the game.

Negatives

• Brunell isn’t a rookie anymore. By Week Three this year he’ll be 36 years old with more than 30,000 yards passing, almost 4,400 passing attempts and over 500 rushing attempts. It is going to be very hard for him to repeat his 16-game performance this season.
• The ‘Win Now’ attitude can backfire. The Redskins expect to make the playoffs this year. If Brunell doesn’t perform at a high level throughout the season, he might be pulled for Campbell or Collins.
• Numbers don’t lie. In 14 years, Brunell has only four 3200+ passing yard seasons, and has only thrown 20 or more TDs three times. Expecting anything above that is a huge stretch.

Final Thoughts

A good fantasy QB is one that will bring you a consistent amount of points each and every week. He might not be the top scoring QB in the league, but as long as he’s putting up consistent, above-average numbers, you’re going to be hard to beat. Brunell isn’t that type of player. He was very streaky last season, and was very pedestrian down the stretch. He did not have more than 200 yards passing during his final seven games of 2006 and if you take away his four passing TDs against Dallas, he had just five total passing TDs during that time as well.

Those are not the numbers you want from a starting fantasy QB. Brunell is a backup/spot-starter now, and won’t be worth the big draft pick that people will spend to get him. Look for Brunell to lost playing time to Campbell or another QB this season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

redman:
The wild card here is health. I think you have to essentially do two evaluations for him, the first one assuming full or near-full health over the course of all 16 games, and the second assuming the number of games you believe he's actually likely to play.

Wade:
Washington added some passing-game weapons for Brunell this year in WR Brandon Lloyd and WR Antwaan Randle El. I think those additions will increase his passing yardage, but I have difficulty projecting him to throw much more than 20 touchdowns in any given year. I am confident that Brunell will start the season as the quarterback of the Redskins, but I would not be surprised to see Jason Campbell finish the season under center (via a Brunell injury, or an early end to the Redskins' playoffs hopes).

Frenchy Fuqua:
Brunell threw for a career-high 23 TD passes last year at age 35. Can he duplicate it at 36? Not likely. Through the first 6 games Brunell had 12 TD passes and 4 games with 30+ attempts. Through the final 10 games Brunell had 11 TD passes and only 2 games with 30+ attempts. The Skins did add Randle El and Brandon Lloyd but I think they are still an offense focused on Clinton Portis. Throw in Jason Campbell and there are plenty of red flags for the aging Mark Brunell this season.

Mark Brunell Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Will Grant	2629	17	10	132	1
Message Board Consensus	3157	23	11	112	0