Jason Wood's Thoughts

If you look at the rankings in any given year, you'll find that they're too focused on last season's year end totals. While I think it's vitally important to look at what a player's accomplished in the past as a baseline for predicting future performance, it's vital not to be afraid to forecast significant improvement or decline. Without a willingness to question the status quo, you're not likely to have your league's most accurate projections and rankings heading into draft day.

Consider:

• In the last three years, only 16 of 30 (53%) top-10 fantasy backs have repeated the next year
• Put another way, nearly half of the backs who finished in the top-10 last year are unlikely to finish in the top-10 in 2006

Yet, when many people do projections, they presume that most of last year's studs will be this year's studs. Don't make the same mistake. Recognize that there WILL be turnover in the top-10 at every position, particularly running back given the pounding these guys take.

With that in mind, I bring you Ronnie Brown. Last year's 2nd overall pick player reasonably well in his rookie season splitting time with Ricky Williams. He averaged 4.4 yards per rush, scored five touchdowns and amassed 1,139 yards from scrimmage in a part-time role.

This season, the writing is on the wall for Brown to be a breakthrough fantasy star...

He's got all the physical measurables -- He's 6'1", 233 pounds with a 4.4 40-time

He can make plays from all over the field -- Brown has wheels, as exhibited by his 65-yard scamper and his five 20+ yard dashes a season ago. But he's also physical at the point of attack. A season ago, he converted 13 of 15 chances with 1-yard to go. That's one of the best conversion percentages by any back in the last five years.

He won't split time this year -- Thanks to Ricky Williams' drug suspension, Ronnie Brown will be a full-time back for the first time since high school. To give you some sense of what that means, take a look at the combined numbers for Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown a season ago:

• 375 carries
• 1.650 yards
• 4.4 yards per rush
• 10 rushing TDs
• 49 receptions
• 325 receiving yards
• 1 receiving TD

The offensive line should be better -- The Dolphins offensive line has been a work in progress, but Hudson Houck should have enough live bodies to field an above average unit this year. With additions like Bennie Anderson and L.J. Shelton to go with last year's crew, the Dolphins won't be confused for the league's best unit, but any improvement is a positive for Brown.

Mike Mularkey understands the value of a powerful rushing attack -- New offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey made his name in Pittsburgh as Bill Cowher's OC. Under Cowher, his best teams were those that ran the ball a ton.

The schedule is a fantasy owner's dream -- According to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule, the Dolphins face the 4th easiest schedule against the run in terms of fantasy points allowed. That includes eight "easy" games (against the bottom 1/4th of the league) and only one "hard" game. Furthermore, the schedule appears quite favorable in Weeks 14-16; critical to playoff success.

But like all players, you should be aware of the risks to my thesis...

• Daunte Culpepper has to play well for a good chunk of the season -- Unless you think Joey Harrington is a good QB that only needed a change of scenery, you need to bank on Culpepper playing for at least 10-12 weeks of the season to maximize Ronnie Brown's value. Without at least decent QB play, defenses will collapse on the run game; hindering his upside.
• Brown has to handle a full workload -- Given Brown's size and strength, there's no reason he shouldn't handle a 20-25 touch workload when needed. But the fact remains he hasn't done that in the pros or college; where he split time with Cadillac Williams
• The offensive line fails to improve -- If Hudson Houck and his band of not-so-merry men don't improve again this season, Brown could find limited room to run.

Positives

• Brown has a rare combination of size, speed and technique. He showed an ability to convert tough short yardage situations but also can break a big run when the line opens up.
• His schedule is among the most favorable at his position
• Ricky Williams is relegated to Canada

Negatives

• For all of his obvious talent and opportunity, we don't know with absolute certainty whether Brown can handle a full-time workload
• The QB situation in Miami could be problematic if Daunte Culpepper doesn't recover on schedule
• The offensive line is a question mark

Final Thoughts

Ronnie Brown need only stay healthy to be one of this year's breakout fantasy stars. Remember that not only was he the 2nd overall pick, but HC Nick Saban took him ahead of Cadillac Williams. Why is that noteworthy? Because Saban coached against them both while at LSU. As long as the line and QB play aren't completely off course, Brown is going to offer someone great value in the last first round or early second.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

SupaDupaTD:
Sammy Morris, will see some time to give Ronnie a breather here and there. Still, Ronnie is freakishly talented and I feel like he'll put up big numbers when he's in.

Synthesizer:
I thought R.Brown looked really good last year.... good vision, speed, and power. Plus a great offensive line scheme led by Houck. With Culpepper's arm and the weapons to spread the field, Brown should have plenty of room to run. I don't see Culpepper taking any goalline plunges like in Minnesota so plenty of TD opportunities as well...

Cookiemonster:
As for Ronnie Brown, I watched many Auburn games over the last few years and there's nothing the guy can't do. He runs well and hard. Pretty good vision, not a lot of wiggle but tons of fight. Remember he was also called by several scouts "the best reciever in this draft... and not just RBs." Don't forget he also played FB on many plays so that Ronnie and Cadillac could share the backfield and is and excellent blocker both for the run and for the pass (if you care, pull up the Georgia game and watch him annihilate both T.Davis and Blue). Because of this, I don't see him being taken off the field for any reason other than a breather. He will be the best runner, blocker and reciever that Miami has in the backfield.

Ronnie Brown Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	260	1200	9	50	370	2
Message Board Consensus	310	1290	10	42	316	2